Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

Todd ZolaMay 28, 2025, 07:04 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
15.1	Zack Wheeler	R	ATL	99.9%	-165	7.5	61%	6.3	2.3	6.8
13.0	Paul Skenes	R	@ARI	99.9%	EVEN	7.5	57%	5.7	2.1	6.4
12.6	Pablo Lopez	R	@TB	96.3%	-105	7.5	66%	6.0	2.5	6.0
11.9	George Kirby	R	WSH	81.3%	-210	8.5	57%	5.7	2.3	5.6
11.1	Shane Smith	R	@NYM	18.9%	+205	7.5	44%	5.2	1.8	5.6
11.0	Griffin Canning	R	CWS	42.5%	-250	7.5	56%	5.5	2.1	5.2
10.7	Matthew Boyd	L	COL	45.0%	-360	7.5	66%	5.2	2.3	5.9
10.6	Freddy Peralta	R	BOS	94.5%	-150	7.5	53%	5.5	2.6	6.2
10.5	Luis Severino	R	@HOU	22.2%	+110	8.5	57%	5.8	2.5	5.2
10.4	Hunter Greene	R	@KC	96.9%	-120	7.5	61%	5.5	2.6	5.6
9.7	Sandy Alcantara	R	@SD	41.9%	+135	8.5	55%	6.0	2.7	4.9
9.2	Zac Gallen	R	PIT	82.3%	-120	7.5	43%	5.5	2.8	5.9
8.8	Clarke Schmidt	R	@LAA	16.1%	-165	8.5	60%	5.3	2.7	5.0
8.1	Landen Roupp	R	@DET	7.4%	-105	7.5	56%	5.3	2.7	4.8
8.0	Trevor Williams	R	@SEA	0.5%	+175	8.5	43%	5.1	2.5	4.7
8.0	Yusei Kikuchi	L	NYY	57.8%	+140	8.5	40%	5.3	2.9	5.5
7.9	Brayan Bello	R	@MIL	9.2%	+125	7.5	47%	5.5	2.9	5.1
7.3	Clayton Kershaw	L	@CLE	13.6%	-155	9.5	65%	4.4	2.2	4.2
7.3	Cade Povich	L	STL	2.0%	-120	8.5	50%	5.3	3.0	4.7
7.2	Jackson Jobe	R	SF	18.8%	-115	7.5	44%	5.1	2.6	4.7
6.9	Miles Mikolas	R	@BAL	10.8%	EVEN	8.5	50%	5.4	3.0	4.0
6.9	Kyle Hart	L	MIA	0.8%	-160	8.5	45%	4.5	2.0	3.6
6.8	AJ Smith-Shawver	R	@PHI	30.2%	+140	7.5	39%	4.9	2.7	5.0
6.6	Tyler Mahle	R	TOR	80.1%	-155	8.5	53%	5.0	2.7	4.0
6.1	Drew Rasmussen	R	MIN	37.8%	-115	7.5	34%	4.2	2.0	3.5
6.1	Noah Cameron	L	CIN	24.0%	EVEN	7.5	39%	5.2	3.2	4.8
5.9	Paxton Schultz	R	@TEX	0.1%	+130	8.5	47%	5.1	3.2	4.8
5.6	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	ATH	2.9%	-130	8.5	43%	3.9	2.1	4.1
2.9	Tanner Gordon	R	@CHC	0.2%	+285	7.5	34%	4.6	3.4	3.8
0.7	Kolby Allard	L	LAD	0.2%	+130	9.5	35%	3.6	3.3	3.3

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

New York Mets RHP Griffin Canning posted a 2.47 ERA over his first nine outings, then he ran into the tag team of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Mother Nature. In 2 2/3 innings of rainy conditions, Canning walked four Dodgers batters, though he yielded just one hit. However, after being lifted following a long rain delay, Canning was credited with surrendering three earned runs when the bullpen allowed two inherited runners to cross the plate. Look for Canning to get back on track Wednesday with a home date facing the Chicago White Sox and the worst wOBA in the league facing righties.
Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd is coming off a rare clunker in his last outing, giving up four runs in four frames to the Cincinnati Reds. Six of his first nine efforts registered as quality starts. Boyd faces the ideal club to rebound with the Colorado Rockies visiting Wrigley Field. Historically, visitors struggle outside of Coors Field with a lefty on the hill with this season following suit. They sport the third highest strikeout rate and fourth lowest wOBA on the road versus southpaws.
Tampa Bay Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen has consecutive six-inning scoreless efforts. In general, he's not ideal for points leagues since these are the only two outings in which Rasmussen completed more than five frames. For the record, he didn't throw more pitches to reach six stanzas; he did it with his usual 80 or so pitches per game, he was just more efficient. Still, it's a good sign that Rasmussen isn't automatically lifted after five stanzas, rendering him a more appealing streamer. Wednesday offers a home affair with the Minnesota Twins. It will be a challenge, but Rasmussen's recent command and control warrant streaming consideration.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

Regression doesn't punch a time clock, but it eventually catches up with the fortunate. Texas Rangers LHP Tyler Mahle received a taste in his last outing on the road against the Chicago White Sox, yielding three runs on five hits and three walks in five innings. He's due even more payback as evidenced by a 4.16 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA, both considerably higher than his actual 1.80 ERA. A .231 BABIP and 84.5% left on base mark have artificially deflated his ratios. The safe play is avoiding Mahle for Wednesday's home matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Los Angeles Angels LHP Yusei Kikuchi has a sparkling 1.43 ERA over his last four starts. However, his WHIP is a more telling 1.41 as he's issued 11 free passes over those 23 1/3 innings, including four in each of his prior outings. Giving the New York Yankees free baserunners is a recipe for disaster. It's best to look elsewhere when the clubs square off in Anaheim.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

The Texas Rangers lineup features several right-handers, with Josh Jung and Jake Burger both available in more than 70% of ESPN leagues and slotted into the meat of the order. Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien are struggling and have been dropped to the bottom of the order, but could be due for a change in fortune.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Last season, Grisham had an average launch angle of 20.4 degrees on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 25.2 degrees.

Lars Nootbaar | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Nootbaar has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year. His .323 rate is a fair amount lower than his .365 expected wOBA, based on my projections.

Jackson Holliday | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.82 EV
One reason to bet this: Holliday is expected to bat first in today's lineup, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Clarke Schmidt | UNDER 6.5 K (-130)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.03 EV
One reason to bet this: It's anticipated that we will see a "hitter's umpire" (Ben May) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.

Zack Wheeler | UNDER 6.5 K (+115)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Wheeler has had positive variance on his side thus far in 2025 when it comes to his strikeouts, notching an 11.21 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 10.72 -- a 0.49 K/9 disparity.

Luis Severino | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.57 EV
One reason to bet this: Minute Maid Park's roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game five degrees hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate. That's favorable for offense.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Red Sox @ Brewers | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $2.57 EV

Twins @ Rays | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $0.55 EV