Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Saturday
Baltimore Orioles RHP Dean Kremer averages fewer than a strikeout per inning, but he usually pitches deep into games, so he's an effective points-league option for favorable matchups. It doesn't get any better than facing the Chicago White Sox and the league's lowest wOBA facing right-handers.
Edward Cabrera posted a 7.23 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over his first four starts. However, in his last four outings, he has recorded a 2.53 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, supported by 23 strikeouts to only five walks in 21 1/3 innings. Cabrera should stay on a roll when the Miami Marlins host the San Francisco Giants. The visitors sport a below-average offense facing right-handers.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
Fantasy teams drafting Bryce Miller are faced with a predicament, especially in rotisserie leagues. He was chosen in large part to support ratios, but he has posted a bloated 5.32 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings. One way to recover from ratio damage is by having those who have contributed to those numbers right the ship. While there is still a strong chance that Miller gets in gear, he's too risky in his first game off the IL, even at home with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Minnesota Twins.
Since a rough outing to open May, Nick Lodolo has started four games and posted a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 22 1/3 innings. However, the Cincinnati Reds lefty closes the month with a tough road tilt at Wrigley Field, facing the Chicago Cubs and the league's top scoring offense. It's prudent to avoid Lodolo leagues with weekly games started limits.
Saturday's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.31 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.48 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.48 ERA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.59 ERA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.21 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.15 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
The Cleveland Guardians are fanning a bit more than usual this season, but they're still below the league average. They should be able to put the ball in play facing Kyle Hendricks, who has punched out just 33 in 53 1/3 innings in his first season for the Los Angeles Angels. Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan are the only Guardians batters rostered in more than 12% of ESPN leagues. Kyle Manzardo, Carlos Santana and Angel Martinez are the best bats to target.
Saturday's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles batters vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees RHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .340 wOBA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for hitters
Minnesota Twins RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .263 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds batters vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.
Saturday's top home run prop bets
Jackson Chourio | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Chourio has been unlucky this year, compiling a .294 wOBA despite projections estimating his true talent level to be .328 -- a .034 disparity.
Max Muncy | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.16 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height in MLB.
Lenyn Sosa | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Sosa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he will be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences.
Saturday's top pitcher prop bets
Slade Cecconi | UNDER 1.5 ER (+125)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Naylor, the Guardians expected catcher in Saturday's matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer.
Jesus Luzardo | UNDER 6.5 K (-140)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.78 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Luzardo (projected 34.3% GB%) will be a bit disadvantaged in Saturday's game with three flyball hitters in Milwaukee's projected offense.
Kodai Senga | OVER 7.5 K (-110)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.40 EV
One reason to bet this: Recording 93.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Kodai Senga checks in at the 84th percentile.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Yankees @ Dodgers | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 60% chance of RUN with a $6.87 EV
Angels @ Guardians | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $2.76 EV
Twins @ Mariners | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $2.97 EV