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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Pitchers to stream on Friday
Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd has six quality starts in nine outings, including his last three. Over that 18 inning stretch, he fanned 23 without issuing any free passes, but he's still available in over half of ESPN leagues. A road date in the Great American Ballpark isn't ideal, but the Cincinnati Reds sport the ninth lowest wOBA and ninth highest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill.
Using a starting pitcher against the Los Angeles Dodgers is rare, but New York Mets RHP Griffin Canning warrants being active. The contest is in Citi Field, one of the best pitching venues in the league and the Dodgers wOBA versus right-handers away from home is just the 19th best in MLB. Gametime temperatures should be in the 50s, further benefiting pitchers.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Generally, Reds RHP Hunter Greene is matchup proof, even when facing the highest scoring team in the league. However, when Greene takes the hill on Friday to face the Chicago Cubs, it will be his first outing since a visit to the 15-day IL for a Grade 1 right groin strain. Greene eschewed rehab for bullpen sessions and even though he's reportedly 100%, the 25-year-old will likely be on a pitch count. The combination of the potent Cubs offense and a workload restriction lands Greene in avoid territory.
This will be hard to sell considering Texas Rangers RHP Tyler Mahle boasts a 1.47 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through 10 starts covering 55 frames, and draws the lowly Chicago White Sox, albeit on the road. However, Mahle's 4.37 SIERA is 62nd among the 84 qualified pitchers while his 10.3% K-BB% is just 64th within the same group. In category leagues, Mahle is probably safe but in points leagues with a weekly game started limit, there are safer options with a higher ceiling.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.80 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.89 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.91 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.34 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.49 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.25 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Friday night marks the first of three games New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge gets to experience Coors Field. He's missed the road interleague set with the Colorado Rockies every other year in his career. Clearly, Judge is universally rostered, but along with Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr., they are the only Yankees' bats rosters in more than 76% of ESPN leagues. Paul Goldschmidt falls just short of the cutoff, then everyone else is available in more than half of ESPN leagues. Anthony Volpe, Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells all line up for a productive weekend.
Today's best matchups for hitters
New York Yankees batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .375 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .365 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays LHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .342 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .255 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Jesus Sanchez | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.86 EV
One reason to bet this: Sanchez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late. Compare his 95.9-mph average over the past seven days to his seasonal 90.4-mph mark.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.72 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of his home runs, Guerrero has experienced some negative variance this year. His 17.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount lower than my projected expected HR/600 of 24.7.
Nick Kurtz | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.00 EV
One reason to bet this: Sutter Health Park has the fifth-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Nick Pivetta | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.37 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, Martin Maldonado (San Diego's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.
Brayan Bello | UNDER 4.5 K (-160)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Due to his large platoon split, Bello will be at a disadvantage facing seven hitters in today's projected batting order who hit from the other side.
Matthew Boyd | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.34 EV
One reason to bet this: With eight bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Boyd will not have the upper hand in most plate appearances today.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
D-Backs @ Cardinals | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $1.59 EV
Padres @ Braves | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $0.40 EV
Guardians @ Tigers | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $1.40 EV