Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

May 20, 2025, 07:06 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.5	Tarik Skubal	L	@STL	99.9%	-190	7.5	57%	5.9	1.8	6.1
12.1	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	ARI	99.7%	-235	9.5	64%	5.9	2.3	5.9
12.0	Dylan Cease	R	@TOR	96.0%	-130	8.5	53%	5.8	2.4	6.4
11.2	Jameson Taillon	R	@MIA	21.2%	-135	8.5	56%	5.8	2.4	5.1
10.4	Erick Fedde	R	DET	13.4%	160	7.5	43%	5.7	2.3	5.3
9.6	Chris Bassitt	R	SD	68.4%	110	8.5	47%	6.0	2.9	5.3
9.2	Gunnar Hoglund	R	LAA	7.0%	-165	10.5	58%	5.5	2.7	4.9
9.1	Logan Henderson	R	BAL	23.2%	-145	8.5	61%	4.9	2.5	5.3
9.0	Will Warren	R	TEX	9.4%	-190	8.5	51%	5.1	2.5	5.5
8.8	Nick Martinez	R	@PIT	40.0%	-135	7.5	57%	5.1	2.3	4.4
8.6	Brandon Walter	L	@TB	0.2%	110	9.5	55%	5.3	2.5	4.5
8.4	Spencer Strider	R	@WSH	88.2%	-180	8.5	56%	4.5	2.2	5.3
8.4	Michael Lorenzen	R	@SF	11.5%	125	7.5	53%	5.4	2.5	4.4
8.0	Chris Paddack	R	CLE	10.4%	-120	7.5	62%	5.2	2.6	4.2
7.7	Zack Littell	R	HOU	6.5%	-130	9.5	45%	5.3	2.7	4.1
7.6	Patrick Corbin	L	@NYY	3.6%	160	8.5	49%	5.5	2.9	4.9
7.5	Ryan Weathers	L	CHC	9.5%	115	8.5	44%	4.6	2.1	4.3
7.0	Mitchell Parker	L	ATL	8.7%	150	8.5	44%	5.1	2.8	4.6
6.9	Kyle Hendricks	R	@ATH	1.0%	140	10.5	42%	5.3	2.8	4.1
6.6	Gavin Williams	R	@MIN	14.4%	Even	7.5	38%	4.8	2.7	5.2
6.5	Hayden Birdsong	R	KC	5.9%	-150	7.5	47%	4.3	2.2	4.6
6.4	Jesus Luzardo	L	@COL	92.2%	-285	10.5	69%	5.5	4.6	6.5
6.3	Clay Holmes	R	@BOS	72.1%	-130	8.5	57%	5.1	3.2	5.0
6.0	Bryse Wilson	R	SEA	0.2%	155	8.5	47%	4.8	2.7	4.3
5.6	Bailey Falter	L	CIN	2.2%	115	7.5	43%	4.7	2.6	3.7
5.2	Ryne Nelson	R	@LAD	0.5%	195	9.5	36%	4.4	2.5	3.8
5.2	Casey Lawrence	R	@CWS	0.0%	-185	8.5	53%	5.1	3.3	4.0
3.7	Chayce McDermott*	R	@MIL	0.3%	120	8.5	39%	3.6	2.4	4.4
3.6	Walker Buehler	R	NYM	31.0%	110	8.5	43%	4.5	3.3	4.2
-6.1	Antonio Senzatela	R	PHI	0.1%	230	10.5	31%	4.5	6.9	3.9

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Chicago Cubs RHP Jameson Taillon has allowed seven homers over his past two outings, with three against Tuesday's opponent, the Miami Marlins. However, that matchup last week was at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out. Taillon should fare better in South Beach, where the Marlins sport one of the lowest home run rates. Five of his outings registered as quality starts, including last time out, as the only runs scored off Taillon were courtesy of the long ball.
Over his past five efforts, Cincinnati Reds RHP Nick Martinez is pitching the way the team expected after extending him a qualifying offer last fall. He has recorded four straight quality starts while falling one out shy of five in a row. He hasn't allowed a home run in that span, fueling a 2.05 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Fanning only 21 over those 30 ⅔ innings is a concern, but Martinez's solid command and control during this stretch allowed him to toss six stanzas, which is integral to fantasy scoring in points leagues. He's in a good spot to stay on a roll with a road affair against the offensively challenged Pittsburgh Pirates.
Athletics RHP Gunnar Hoglund has taken advantage of his chance in the rotation with a pair of solid starts, followed by a clunker on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Hoglund isn't the only young hurler victimized by a potent Dodgers lineup that took him deep three times last week. Look for Hoglund to rebound at home against a Los Angeles Angels team with one of the highest strikeout rates in the league.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

For the most part, New York Mets RHP Clay Holmes' transition to the rotation has gone swimmingly. His 8.4% walk rate is a little high, especially since he's an extreme ground ball pitcher, hence he is vulnerable to a high BABIP. Even though Holmes is familiar with Fenway Park from his tenure in the New York Yankees bullpen, there is no reason to risk a rough outing against the potentially dangerous Boston Red Sox lineup.
While Atlanta Braves RHP Spencer Strider draws a favorable matchup for his 2025 debut, facing the Washington Nationals on the road, the righty will be on a pitch limit and exhibited decreased velocity during rehab. Strider managed one start before hitting the 10-day IL with a strained hamstring. He threw only 65 pitches in his final rehab start and likely won't be pushed in his 2025 MLB debut.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

The Philadelphia Phillies continue a four-game series at Coors Field and then head to Sacramento for the weekend, so their batters are more than streamers. Only three Phillies bats are rostered in at least 95% of ESPN leagues. Everyone else is available in at least 25% of ESPN leagues, starting with Bryson Stott, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm. J.T. Realmuto, Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are also in play.
The Milwaukee Brewers sported one of the league's most disappointing offenses over the first quarter of the season. Their slow start has only William Contreras and Jackson Chourio universally rostered. Christian Yelich and Brice Turang are both available in around 25% of ESPN leagues and make for excellent pickups for a matchup with Baltimore Orioles RHP Chayce McDermott, who will be the "primary pitcher" on Tuesday. They both enjoy the platoon bump and are candidates to steal a base with C Adley Rutschman struggling to control the running game.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.90 EV
One reason to bet this: When it comes to his home runs, Guerrero has experienced some negative variance this year. His 14.8 HR/600 plate appearances rate is deflated compared to my projected expected HR/600 of 24.4.

Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+325)
Projection: 29% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.93 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast sees temperatures in this contest to reach the second-highest level (84 degrees) of all games on the slate. High temperatures are linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Shea Langeliers | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.70 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast sees temperatures in this contest to reach the second-highest level (84 degrees) of all games on the slate. High temperatures are linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Spencer Strider | UNDER 5.5 K (-130)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.70 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball hitters have a big edge over groundball pitchers, Strider and his 37.3% underlying GB% (via my projections) may be in a difficult spot in today's outing.

Tarik Skubal | UNDER 7.5 K (-160)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.52 EV
One reason to bet this: Busch Stadium profiles as only the No. 22 venue in MLB for strikeouts, per my projections.

Gunnar Hoglund | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.49 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.9 mph in this contest, the second-best of the day for hitters.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Mariners @ White Sox | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $4.11 EV

Guardians @ Twins | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $3.68 EV

Astros @ Rays | NRFI (+105)
Projection: 50% chance of NO RUN with a $2.79 EV