Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

Todd ZolaMay 12, 2025, 05:00 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
14.4	Kodai Senga	R	PIT	88.1%	57%	5.8	1.7	6.7
14.1	Dylan Cease	R	LAA	93.7%	65%	5.8	1.9	7.0
12.2	Framber Valdez	L	KC	94.4%	55%	5.9	2.3	6.2
12.1	Jesus Luzardo	L	STL	89.8%	52%	5.8	2.4	6.3
11.7	Mitch Keller	R	@NYM	47.0%	43%	6.0	2.3	5.7
11.6	Max Fried	L	@SEA	99.4%	51%	5.7	2.2	6.0
11.6	Bryan Woo	R	NYY	85.7%	49%	5.5	1.9	5.1
11.1	Sonny Gray	R	@PHI	94.2%	48%	5.7	2.5	6.1
10.0	Andrew Abbott	L	CWS	17.1%	62%	5.5	2.7	5.6
10.0	Kris Bubic	L	@HOU	85.4%	45%	5.6	2.4	5.7
10.0	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@SF	81.0%	50%	5.6	2.5	5.3
9.8	Jose Berrios	R	TB	55.6%	50%	5.8	2.7	5.4
9.4	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	WSH	89.3%	63%	5.8	3.1	5.3
9.2	Shane Baz	R	@TOR	41.3%	50%	5.4	2.4	4.8
8.6	Brayan Bello	R	@DET	16.5%	55%	5.7	3.0	5.0
8.0	Landon Knack	R	ATH	0.6%	52%	4.7	2.2	4.3
7.7	Ben Brown	R	MIA	4.9%	50%	4.8	2.5	5.4
7.7	Robbie Ray	L	ARI	71.4%	50%	4.9	2.4	4.9
7.6	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	@BAL	1.4%	61%	4.9	2.6	4.4
7.5	Jose Soriano	R	@SD	9.4%	35%	5.1	2.2	4.6
7.4	Jeffrey Springs	L	@LAD	6.5%	48%	4.9	2.5	4.6
7.1	Valente Bellozo	R	@CHC	0.1%	50%	5.1	2.6	4.2
6.2	Jonathan Cannon	R	@CIN	0.9%	38%	5.2	3.2	4.9
5.9	Logan Allen	L	MIL	2.1%	48%	4.9	2.9	4.5
5.5	Cade Povich	L	MIN	0.9%	39%	5.2	3.3	4.4
5.5	Kyle Freeland	L	@TEX	1.5%	48%	5.2	3.4	4.3
5.3	Keider Montero	R	BOS	0.1%	45%	5.0	3.2	4.4
4.4	Michael Soroka	R	@ATL	1.0%	37%	4.8	3.3	4.4
4.4	Quinn Priester	R	@CLE	0.7%	52%	5.2	3.3	3.8
3.8	Jack Leiter	R	COL	13.9%	52%	4.4	3.3	4.8

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Chicago Cubs RHP Ben Brown is taking advantage of his first extended stint in the rotation, though his 4.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP may not reflect his effectiveness. Given, a couple of poor outings show Brown remains inconsistent, but take away two April outings where he surrendered 11 runs in 7 2/3 innings, Brown sports a pristine 2.83 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings. On Tuesday, Brown enjoys a favorable home matchup with the Miami Marlins. The visitors are no longer a pushover offense as they're mid-pack in terms of average runs per game and strikeouts, but it's still favorable for Brown.
Cincinnati Reds RHP Andrew Abbott has made only five stats after beginning the season on the IL with a left rotator cuff strain. He's showing no signs of any lingering issues with four starts allowing no more than one run, and the fifth outing was in Coors Field. Most impressively, Abbott has 31 punchouts in 24 frames. The 26-year-old righty should continue to be productive with a home date against the Chicago White Sox on the docket.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

San Francisco Giants LHP Robbie Ray is 5-0 with a 2.84 ERA through seven starts. With the note he's pitched well over his last three efforts, overall he's been fortunate. The lefty's 84.8% left on base mark is suppressing his ERA well below his 4.19 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA. His 12.7% walk rate is the highest among qualified pitchers and his .234 BABIP is ripe for regression, adding even more base traffic. Lastly, Ray's 25.4% strikeout rate is above the league average, but it's below his career level. Despite a start at pitcher friendly Oracle Park, Ray is risky on Tuesday, facing the Arizona Diamondbacks. The visitors don't strike out much and walk at an above average clip versus left-handers.

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

With RHP Casey Mize on the IL with a sore hamstring, the Detroit Tigers will send RHP Keider Montero to the hill in Comerica Park to face the Boston Red Sox. Serving as the 27th man in a doubleheader last week, Montero tossed eight innings in Coors Field, allowing just one run, however he fanned just to Colorado Rockies betters. In 21 2/3 frames this season, Montero has only 15 strikeouts, and that's with eight over five frames in his first start of the season. The Red Sox lineup is warming up, with Kristian Campbell, Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela all in play as Tuesday pickups.
With RHP Brandon Woodruff close to returning for the Milwaukee Brewers, RHP Quinn Priester could be pitching for his spot in the rotation when he opposes the Cleveland Guardians in Progressive Field. In 28 1/3 stanzas, Priester has fanned just 20 while issuing a generous 19 walks. Kyle Manzardo, Daniel Schneemann, Carlos Santana and Gabriel Arias all line up for a productive effort for the Guardians.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.