Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

ESPN Fantasy

May 13, 2025, 04:47 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.3	Tarik Skubal	L	BOS	99.8%	63%	5.8	2.1	6.1
12.6	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	ATH	99.6%	59%	6.0	2.3	6.2
12.1	Jesus Luzardo	L	STL, Gm. 2	90.4%	52%	5.8	2.4	6.3
11.5	Luis Castillo	R	NYY	92.6%	55%	5.9	2.5	5.8
11.4	Clay Holmes	R	PIT	69.8%	58%	5.3	1.9	5.5
10.4	Erick Fedde	R	@PHI, Gm. 2	9.7%	48%	5.7	2.5	5.6
11.2	Sonny Gray	R	@PHI, Gm. 1	94.6%	53%	5.7	2.5	6.1
10.3	Chris Bassitt	R	TB	65.1%	51%	5.9	2.8	5.8
10.2	Aaron Nola	R	STL, Gm. 1	90.9%	47%	5.9	3.0	6.2
9.9	Bailey Ober	R	@BAL, Gm. 2	82.9%	57%	5.5	2.7	5.4
9.8	Jameson Taillon	R	MIA	13.8%	56%	5.7	2.7	4.8
9.5	Ryan Pepiot	R	@TOR	19.4%	49%	5.3	2.4	4.8
9.2	Nick Lodolo	L	CWS	49.0%	62%	5.2	2.7	5.7
8.9	Randy Vasquez	R	LAA	1.5%	58%	5.1	2.0	4.2
8.7	Dean Kremer	R	MIN, Gm. 2	2.6%	43%	5.6	2.9	4.9
8.4	Michael Lorenzen	R	@HOU	7.1%	49%	5.4	2.6	4.7
8.4	Colton Gordon	L	KC	0.0%	51%	5.3	2.7	5.0
8.3	Gunnar Hoglund	R	@LAD	8.3%	41%	5.3	2.5	4.6
8.2	Jordan Hicks	R	ARI	5.6%	52%	5.3	2.5	4.6
8.2	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	@SF	4.3%	48%	5.5	2.9	5.3
7.8	Will Warren	R	@SEA	3.2%	45%	4.8	2.5	5.2
7.8	Bailey Falter	L	@NYM	1.2%	42%	4.8	2.1	3.9
7.7	Logan Henderson	R	@CLE	1.3%	58%	4.4	2.2	4.7
7.5	Kyle Hendricks	R	@SD	0.7%	42%	5.3	2.4	3.8
7.4	Hunter Dobbins	R	@DET	2.8%	37%	5.5	3.0	5.0
7.4	Ryan Weathers	L	@CHC	3.5%	44%	5.0	2.6	4.6
6.6	Patrick Corbin	L	COL	2.0%	62%	5.4	3.5	4.9
6.6	Mitchell Parker	L	@ATL	12.2%	45%	5.2	2.9	4.5
6.4	Gavin Williams	R	MIL	11.9%	42%	4.7	2.7	5.2
6.3	Bryce Elder	R	WSH	3.9%	55%	5.4	3.3	4.4
5.9	Davis Martin	R	@CIN	0.9%	38%	4.9	3.1	4.9
5.6	Cade Povich	L	MIN, Gm. 1	1.1%	42%	5.2	3.3	4.4
2.2	Antonio Senzatela	R	@TEX	0.1%	38%	4.8	4.0	4.0
	TBD		@BAL, Gm. 1	0.0%	58%	0.0	0.0	0.0

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

An overlooked aspect of points-league scoring is how innings help mitigate a low strikeout rate. In ESPN scoring, an inning is worth three points, compared to one point per punchout. Six innings with five strikeouts scores two more points than five innings with six strikeouts. Starters like St. Louis Cardinals RHP Erick Fedde are underappreciated in points leagues. He has only 29 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings, but he's averaging 6.5 frames over his last six outings, including a complete-game shutout last time out. Repeating that effort on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies will be a challenge, but the Phillies offense has the seventh-lowest wOBA facing breaking balls and off-speed stuff. Meanwhile, on average, over 60% of Fedde's pitches are breaking balls or slower offerings.
Chicago Cubs RHP Jameson Taillon is another example of a starter more useful in points formats than category scoring. If Taillon can keep the ball in the yard, he usually compiles at least six stanzas. He's done it in half of his eight starts so far, with a good chance of achieving six innings for a fifth time on Wednesday in a home start against the Miami Marlins and their below-average home run rate.
It has been an uneven first quarter of the season for Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo, though the fact he has made eight starts is encouraging. His 3.23 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are certainly promising as well, though his ERA estimators peg his mark a run higher, in part due to a .255 BABIP. On Wednesday, Lodolo has a favorable home date with the Chicago White Sox, who will tote the fifth-lowest wOBA versus left-handers into Great American Ballpark.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

Marlins LHP Ryan Weathers is slated to make his 2025 debut at Wrigley Field against the potent Cubs offense. Weathers was on a lot of breakout lists in the spring, but he's yet to take the hill after straining his forearm. The lefty was effective in rehab, fanning 13 over 10 2/3 innings, but he only stretched out to 57 pitches in his last outing. Even if the Cubs didn't boast the third-highest wOBA facing lefties, it's too risky to start Weathers.

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

Atlanta Braves RHP Bryce Elder is coming off his best outing of the season, fanning eight in six frames, but he also surrendered a pair of long balls to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the club with the second-lowest home run rate in the league. It should be hot at Truist Park, landing the visiting Washington Nationals as one of the better lineups for production. Nathaniel Lowe, Dylan Crews and Josh Bell are the chief targets.

Hitters to avoid on Wednesday

There are better streaming options than Tampa Bay Rays RHP Ryan Pepiot, but on paper it's still a good matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays' wOBA against cutters, sliders and changeups is just .267. On average, Pepiot throws those pitches over 55% of the time, so it's best to look elsewhere for offensive production.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.