Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream Monday
It's just the first day of the new fantasy week, but New York Mets LHP David Peterson's home date with the Pittsburgh Pirates could be the top streaming spot all period. The only downside is Peterson will be opposed by RHP Paul Skenes. The Pirates' lineup sports the sixth-lowest wOBA and fourth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.
Using an opposing pitcher in Minute Maid Park has been off the table for the past several seasons. However, with the Houston Astros missing Yordan Alvarez and likely Jose Altuve, they're vulnerable, especially with Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz yet to get on track. Kansas City Royals RHP Michael Wacha doesn't rack up strikeouts, but he piles up innings and is carrying a 2.98 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The veteran righty has posted three straight quality starts, yielding only three runs in those 19⅓ frames.
Pitchers to avoid Monday
It's surprising that Los Angeles Angels LHP Yusei Kikuchi remains rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues. His 3.83 ERA is palatable, but a 1.46 WHIP along with a 4.47 xFIP and 4.48 SIERA is more indicative of how he has pitched. On Monday, the southpaw opposes the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. The Padres have handled lefty pitching very well at home, landing Kikuchi in "avoid" territory.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.21 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.46 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.54 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Braves hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.73 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.71 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.54 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Monday
The Chicago Cubs are averaging the second-most runs per game in the league. On Monday, they open a home set against the Miami Marlins, whose team ERA is the second highest in the game, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies. It's worth checking on the availability of Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch and Jon Berti for their matchup with RHP Cal Quantrill, who totes his 7.11 ERA and 1.67 WHIP to the Wrigley Field hill.
Cleveland Guardians RHP Ben Lively sports a 3.46 ERA and 1.20 ERA over 41⅔ innings, but he has punched out only 28 while administering a generous 13 walks and six home runs. Even though this space usually focuses on players available in at least half of ESPN leagues, Christian Yelich and Brice Turang are available in over 20% of ESPN leagues, so there is a chance they can be picked up in 10- and 12-team formats. Other more accessible options include Rhys Hoskins, Joey Ortiz, Caleb Durbin and Jake Bauers.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .335 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers LHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .330 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .325 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Mets batters vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .271 wOBA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins RHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an expected value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Jake Meyers | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Meyers has seen a sizable increase in his exit velocity this season. Compare his 91.1-mph average to last year's 88.2-mph EV.
Wilmer Flores | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.45 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.6 mph in this matchup, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.58 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.2 mph in this contest, the fifth-strongest of the day for bats.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Michael King | OVER 7.5 K (+110)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.24 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 3 venue in the league for boosting strikeouts, via my projections, is Petco Park.
Grant Holmes | OVER 4.5 K (-155)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.96 EV
One reason to bet this: Tallying 97 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Holmes falls in the 92nd percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 5.5 K (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.14 EV
One reason to bet this: The Cardinals (21.3 K%) are projected to be the fifth-least strikeout-heavy team on the slate today.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Marlins @ Cubs | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $0.27 EV
Yankees @ Mariners | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.58 EV
Cardinals @ Phillies | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $0.27 EV