Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Baltimore Orioles RHP Dean Kremer checks in just above the threshold for his road start against the Minnesota Twins. The risk is some of the ranking considers that the Twins offense has performed below average facing right-handed pitching, but the club has been dealing with injuries and 3B Royce Lewis and IF/OF Willi Castro returned this week, fortifying the offense. This is a case where the sixth highest ranked starter on an abbreviated slate looks appealing, but the overall quality of starters is below average. If compared against the weeks' worth of streamers, Kremer would not be as alluring.
Tampa Bay RHP Ryan Pepiot is in a similar scenario. He's above the 8.5-point cutoff but faces an underperforming yet still dangerous Philadelphia Phillies lineup at home. As a team, the Phillies' home run rate is below average, but giving lefties Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber at least eight shots at the short right field fence is scary. Like Kremer, Pepiot is risky, and with three days of games left in the fantasy week, there will likely be better streaming options for the diligent fantasy manager.
Boston Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello is a prime example of where upside may leapfrog him into the streaming zone. He's tossed two straight quality starts and faces one of the weakest lineups in the league. Formulaic rankings are useful since they don't exhibit recency bias, but occasionally it's necessary to make a more subjective call. It can be argued that Bello is a better option than Kremer or Pepiot.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
Staying with the 8.5-point theme, Kansas City Royals LHP Kris Bubic could be a fade since his projection is a tick shy of the threshold, however he's exhibiting improvement not yet fully captured and is facing a vulnerable Chicago White Sox lineup. Fantasy teams with multiple solid starters may be able to find 12 better starts this week, but chances are Bubic belongs active for the outing.
On the other hand, it is best to avoid RHP Brandon Pfaadt for his dangerous home date with the Los Angeles Dodgers. His strikeout rate is down and the Dodgers feast on right-handed pitching.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.63 ERA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.15 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.33 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Tigers hitters (Game 2)
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.40 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.26 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.07 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Clearly with a pair of games in Coors Field, anyone available from the Colorado Rockies or Detroit Tigers is a priority. With the Rockies starting at least one southpaw (Kyle Freeland), Zach McKinstry is the main Tigers' target. There aren't any Rockies batters rostered in more than half or ESPN leagues, so they're all in play, with OF Brenton Doyle the chief candidate.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Tigers pitchers (Game 2)
SP: A | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .369 wOBA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers batters vs. Rockies pitchers (Game 2)
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .356 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Tigers pitchers (Game 1)
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .265 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds RHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .288 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Rafael Marchan | OVER 0.5 HR (+1400)
Projection: 8% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.35 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs). This game is predicted to have the highest temperatures (85 degrees) of the day.
Jackson Holliday | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.97 EV
One reason to bet this: Holliday's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) has gotten better recently, increasing from 16.9% on the season to 40% over the past seven days.
Kyren Paris | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.36 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the fourth-best for hitting on the slate today.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Ryan Pepiot | UNDER 5.5 K (-140)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.30 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.6 mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.
Brayan Bello | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.47 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Fenway Park as the eighth-worst stadium in the game for strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo | UNDER 4.5 K (-100)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.96 EV
One reason to bet this: Lodolo's 92.4-mph fastball velocity this year is a notable 1.7-mph drop off from last seasons 94.1-mph figure.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Tigers @ Rockies | YRFI (-140)
Projection: 59% chance of RUN with a $0.71 EV