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Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to stream on Sunday
Ian Seymour's last start of the season is either a good streaming opportunity, or a great one. The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Toronto Blue Jays in their regular season finale. There is a chance that the Blue Jays have clinched the AL East, in which case they'd bench many of their regulars. Even if they are still playing for the division title, Seymour is putting the bow on an impressive rookie season, sporting a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 57 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings.
Cole Ragans and the Kansas City Royals are playing for nothing but pride as they close out the season in Sacramento against the Athletics, who are also just playing out the string. After Ragans posted a career-high 186 1/3 innings last season, there were two trains of thought. He either finally shook the injury-probe label, or the big jump in workload was a health risk for this season. Sure enough, the left-hander missed three months with a strained rotator cuff. Ragans returned in mid-September to make three starts, with his last to close out the season. He punched out 10 in five innings when he pitched last week, so even if the Royals restrict his pitch limit, Ragans is capable for racking up decent punchouts against the strikeout-heavy Athletics lineup.
Pitchers to avoid on Sunday
Playoff bound teams, especially those with a first-round bye, send their postseason starters to the hill, but potentially only for a few innings just to keep them sharp and on schedule. Look for Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies), Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers), Bryce Miller (Seattle Mariners) and Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers) to leave early.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.48 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.58 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.64 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.61 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.22 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.14 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
McCade Brown is coming off his best start of the season, but his track record suggests it was the exception. The San Francisco Giants close out the year hosting Brown and the Colorado Rockies. The Giants are slated to send Logan Webb to the hill, so they'll likely try to get him some run support. Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames and Bryce Eldridge should garner the full complement of at-bats.
Hitters to avoid on Sunday
Teams secured of October baseball will likely bench their starters, or at best leave them in for only one or two at-bats. It's best to avoid players on teams that have already punched their postseason tickets.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros RHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .262 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners LHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Henry Davis | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.30 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects this game to have the second-hottest weather (83 degrees) of all games on today's slate.
Yandy Diaz | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Last year, Diaz had an average launch angle of 1.3 degrees on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 5.2 degrees.
Jonathan Aranda | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.00 EV
One reason to bet this: The ninth-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found at Rogers Centre.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Freddy Peralta | OVER 4.5 K (-150)
Projection: 80% chance of this bet hitting, with a $51.23 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks American Family Field as the second-best park in MLB for strikeouts.
Luis Gil | UNDER 5.5 K (-130)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Yankee Stadium profiles as only the No. 22 park in the game for strikeouts, according to my projections.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Pirates @ Braves | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $4.48 EV
Orioles @ Yankees | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $0.76 EV