Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream Monday
Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd hasn't pitched as well as his 2.70 ERA indicates. His 1.44 WHIP tells a clearer story, as does a 4.40 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA. However, Boyd has been snakebit by a high .330 BABIP, forcing him to pitch from the stretch, where he isn't as effective. The lefty lines up for a home start against a San Francisco Giants lineup struggling against left-handers. Boyd's ERA is due a correction, but regression in his hit rate should soften the landing.
The Chicago White Sox made RHP Shane Smith the first pick in the 2024 Rule 5 draft, selecting him from the Milwaukee Brewers. Most Rule 5 hurlers spend the first season with their new club in long relief. Smith made the rotation coming out of camp and has compiled a 2.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in six starts, spanning 32⅓ innings. His 4.48 xFIP indicates he has been fortunate, but Smith has been inducing grounders and keeping the ball in the yard, which is usually a recipe for success. Smith's ERA is due for correction, but he should be able to delay it at least one more game with a home affair against a Kansas City Royals lineup that sports the fourth-lowest wOBA facing righties.
Pitchers to avoid Monday
This is low-hanging fruit, but Miami Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara's roster mark still exceeds 50%, and he has a home date with the dangerous Los Angeles Dodgers on the docket. In Dodger Stadium last time out, Alcantara lasted just 2⅔ innings, yielding seven runs on seven hits and five free passes.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Giants hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.53 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.70 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.79 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.18 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.98 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Mets hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.77 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Monday
The St. Louis Cardinals start the week with a juicy home matchup against RHP Carmen Mlodzinski and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Lars Nootbaar and Willson Contreras are available in around 30% of ESPN leagues, with Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II sitting as free agents in well over half of ESPN leagues.
Hitters to avoid Monday
Benching potentially useful batters on an abbreviated 10-game slate is a slippery slope, but as a team, the Atlanta Braves struggle against off-speed stuff and breaking balls. On Monday, they have a home date with Cincinnati Reds RHP Brady Singer, who is more reliant on movement and location than velocity. Against breaking balls and soft stuff, Marcell Ozuna sports a .248 OPS, with Michael Harris II just a smidge higher at .281. Ozzie Albies at .569 and Matt Olson at .571 aren't much better.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Athletics LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .335 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Mets pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .335 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Temperature: F | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants batters vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Temperature: F | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees LHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .283 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an expected value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Nick Kurtz | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.91 EV
One reason to bet this: Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts). The weather forecast predicts this game for the highest temperature (82 degrees) on today's.
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Grisham has seen a sizable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late. Compare his 102-mph average over the past 14 days to his overall 2025 average of 98.3 mph.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.25 EV
One reason to bet this: Compared to his overall 2025 average of 16.3 degrees, Rooker has significantly improved his launch angle with a 23.2-degree mark over the past week.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Luis Ortiz | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.07 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the second-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.
Griffin Canning | UNDER 4.5 K (-160)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.83 EV
One reason to bet this: Given the 0.85 deviation between Canning's 9.00 K/9 and his projected "true talent" 8.15 K/9, it's safe to say he's been one of the most lucky pitchers this year when it comes to strikeouts. He figures to perform worse over the rest of the season.
Ryne Nelson | UNDER 3.5 K (+115)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Chase Field ranks as the No. 27 stadium in MLB for strikeouts, according to my projections.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Giants @ Cubs | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $0.96 EV