Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

Todd ZolaMay 4, 2025, 10:45 AM ET
Close
Follow on X

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league

STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.2	Logan Webb	R	COL	98.4%	-360	7.5	66%	6.1	2.5	5.8
10.5	Garrett Crochet	L	MIN	99.7%	-225	8.5	51%	5.4	2.7	6.7
10.3	Erick Fedde	R	NYM, Gm. 1	10.4%	+125	8.5	58%	5.6	2.3	5.1
10.1	Ranger Suarez	L	ARI	34.3%	-135	8.5	55%	5.8	2.7	5.2
10.0	Tanner Bibee	R	@TOR	77.1%	EVEN	8.5	50%	5.7	2.6	5.3
10.0	JP Sears	L	@MIA	30.6%	-135	8.5	56%	5.6	2.6	5.2
9.8	Freddy Peralta	R	CHC	94.7%	-110	7.5	49%	5.4	2.7	6.1
9.8	Shota Imanaga	L	@MIL	97.3%	-110	7.5	51%	5.8	2.9	5.5
9.6	Bowden Francis	R	CLE	50.7%	-120	8.5	50%	5.5	2.6	4.7
9.0	Taj Bradley	R	@NYY	46.8%	+155	8.5	49%	5.3	2.7	5.7
9.0	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	@PHI	6.9%	+115	8.5	45%	5.6	2.9	5.7
8.4	Andre Pallante	R	NYM, Gm. 2	5.4%	+125	8.5	54%	5.4	2.4	4.2
8.3	Reese Olson	R	@LAA	27.1%	-175	8.5	57%	5.2	2.6	4.8
8.2	Edward Cabrera	R	ATH	1.7%	+115	8.5	44%	4.9	2.3	5.2
8.2	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	@CWS	10.8%	-215	8.5	57%	4.7	2.2	4.5
7.9	Tylor Megill	R	@STL, Gm. 2	62.5%	-130	8.5	46%	5.1	2.5	5.0
7.8	Jacob deGrom	R	SEA	92.4%	-185	8.5	55%	4.7	2.5	4.8
7.8	MacKenzie Gore	L	@CIN	86.7%	+105	8.5	45%	5.2	3.1	6.1
7.7	Nick Martinez	R	WSH	24.2%	-125	8.5	55%	4.9	2.7	4.7
7.6	Will Warren	R	TB	3.9%	-185	8.5	51%	4.6	2.3	4.6
7.5	Michael Lorenzen	R	@BAL	8.9%	+110	9.5	51%	5.3	2.8	4.5
7.4	Kyle Gibson	R	KC	0.6%	-130	9.5	49%	5.7	3.3	4.8
7.1	Blade Tidwell	R	@STL, Gm. 1	1.7%	-130	8.5	42%	4.7	2.3	4.2
6.9	Andrew Heaney	L	SD	52.3%	-120	8.5	48%	4.9	2.7	4.6
6.9	Bryse Wilson	R	HOU	0.2%	+180	8.5	43%	4.6	2.3	4.1
6.7	Stephen Kolek	R	@PIT	0.4%	EVEN	8.5	52%	4.6	2.4	4.3
6.5	Dustin May	R	@ATL	32.7%	-160	9.5	52%	4.9	2.8	4.4
6.1	Logan Evans	R	@TEX	4.4%	+155	8.5	45%	4.7	2.7	4.2
5.3	Chris Paddack	R	@BOS	1.4%	+185	8.5	49%	5.0	3.4	4.8
5.1	German Marquez	R	@SF	0.4%	+285	7.5	34%	4.6	2.6	3.8
5.0	Jack Kochanowicz	R	DET	1.2%	+145	8.5	43%	5.2	3.2	3.4
4.9	Bryce Elder	R	LAD	1.1%	+135	9.5	48%	5.2	3.6	4.4

Pitchers to stream on Sunday

It's strength versus strength with Detroit Tigers RHP Reese Olson taking the hill in Angels Stadium against a Los Angeles Angels lineup reliant on the long ball to score. Olson's 53.4% ground ball rate has allowed just one home run in 33 frames. The advantage goes to Olson since the Angels are without Mike Trout, and overall, their lineup isn't patient while fanning at an above-average clip.
Through six starts, LHP JP Sears sports a career-best 17.4% K-BB%, which checks in a respectable 27th highest among qualified pitchers. Next up is a date in South Beach with a Miami Marlins lineup with an average offense with a lefty on the hill. They don't fan much, but they don't walk much either, which should put Sears in play for his fourth quality start in seven outings.
Houston Astros LHP Lance McCullers Jr. hasn't toed a major league rubber since 2022. Most of the time, it's best to take a wait-and-see approach before trusting a pitcher returning from such a lengthy absence. However, it's the last day of the head-to-head scoring period, and McCullers faces the Chicago White Sox, one of the least productive offenses against southpaws. McCullers compiled five innings, throwing 71 pitches in his last rehab start, so managing five frames shouldn't be an issue.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Sunday

St. Louis is known as the Gateway to the West. On Sunday, it's the gateway to fantasy points with a doubleheader between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets. The visitors' bats are the better targets, led by Brandon Nimmo, Jesse Winker, Mark Vientos and Jeff McNeil. Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn comprise the top candidates for the home team nine.
The Detroit Tigers are averaging the eighth-most runs per game in MLB, yet they don't have any players rostered in more than 73% of ESPN leagues. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene are close, and might eclipse the threshold by game time, but it's worth checking on their availability for a juicy road date with Angels RHP Jack Kochanowicz. Other options are Kerry Carpenter, Zach McKinstry and Javier Baez.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Based on Statcast metrics, my projections of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (31.3) suggests that Guerrero has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his 24.3 actual HR/600.

Bobby Witt Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Witt has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 24.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably lower than his 29.8 Expected HR/600, based on my projections' interpretation of Statcast data.

Bo Bichette | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.40 EV
One reason to bet this: Bichette has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 4.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal lower than his 17.1 Expected HR/600, based on my projections' interpretation of Statcast data.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Bryse Wilson | UNDER 2.5 ER (-115)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Wilson will have the handedness advantage against eight opposing bats in todays game.

Blade Tidwell | UNDER 3.5 K (+115)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.54 EV
One reason to bet this: The St. Louis Cardinals (20.2 K% (according to my projections) are forecasted to have the fifth-least strikeout-prone team of hitters of the day.

Garrett Crochet | OVER 6.5 K (-120)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.61 EV
One reason to bet this: With a 1.14 disparity between Crochet's 10.23 K/9 and his 11.36 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), its safe to say he has been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see better results in future games.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

D-Backs @ Phillies | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $0.21 EV