Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

May 3, 2025, 09:30 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
11.1	Hunter Brown	R	@CWS	95.2%	-250	7.5	57%	5.6	2.4	6.0
10.8	Luis Castillo	R	@TEX	94.2%	-135	8.5	55%	5.9	2.9	6.0
10.7	Kevin Gausman	R	CLE	84.6%	-145	7.5	57%	5.8	2.6	5.6
10.4	Clarke Schmidt	R	TB	13.7%	-180	9.5	57%	5.4	2.3	5.2
10.3	Aaron Nola	R	ARI	89.6%	-125	9.5	52%	6.0	3.1	6.1
10.1	Erick Fedde	R	NYM	9.8%	+125	8.5	53%	5.6	2.3	5.1
9.9	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	LAD	92.5%	-105	8.5	52%	5.8	3.0	5.6
9.8	Roki Sasaki	R	@ATL	77.8%	-115	8.5	48%	6.1	3.2	6.0
9.7	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@PHI	82.7%	+105	9.5	48%	5.6	2.8	5.5
9.5	Kris Bubic	L	@BAL	76.3%	-105	8.5	54%	5.8	2.8	5.3
9.4	Bradley Blalock	R	@SF	0.0%	+230	8.5	48%	5.6	2.3	4.1
9.1	Max Meyer	R	ATH	59.4%	-120	8.5	46%	5.4	2.7	5.7
9.1	Jordan Hicks	R	COL	8.7%	-285	8.5	52%	5.5	2.5	5.0
9.0	Nick Lodolo	L	WSH	55.4%	-185	8.5	58%	5.3	2.7	5.4
8.5	Jameson Taillon	R	@MIL	12.3%	-110	8.5	52%	5.4	2.8	4.7
8.3	Jack Flaherty	R	@LAA	88.3%	-180	8.5	56%	5.4	3.3	6.0
8.0	Jose Quintana	L	CHC	28.7%	-110	8.5	48%	5.6	2.9	4.5
8.0	Tylor Megill	R	@STL	54.5%	-150	8.5	47%	5.1	2.5	5.0
7.9	Zack Littell	R	@NYY	2.5%	+150	9.5	43%	5.2	2.7	4.5
7.9	Osvaldo Bido	R	@MIA	3.2%	EVEN	8.5	54%	4.9	2.2	4.3
7.9	Bailey Ober	R	@BOS	80.5%	EVEN	9.5	57%	5.2	3.2	5.6
7.9	Davis Martin	R	HOU	1.6%	+205	7.5	43%	5.3	2.7	4.6
7.5	Gavin Williams	R	@TOR	14.3%	+120	7.5	43%	5.0	2.5	4.7
7.1	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	KC	11.0%	-115	8.5	46%	5.4	3.0	4.2
6.7	Trevor Williams	R	@CIN	0.7%	+155	8.5	42%	5.1	3.1	4.9
6.3	Hunter Dobbins	R	MIN	3.4%	-120	9.5	43%	5.2	3.3	5.1
5.7	Randy Vasquez	R	@PIT	1.7%	-120	8.5	54%	4.7	2.6	3.6
5.3	Patrick Corbin	L	SEA	1.9%	+115	8.5	45%	5.3	3.4	4.6
5.0	Kyle Hendricks	R	DET	0.8%	+150	8.5	44%	5.0	3.2	3.8
4.8	Bailey Falter	L	SD	0.7%	EVEN	8.5	46%	4.6	2.7	3.5

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

This could be the last time LHP Nick Lodolo is eligible for the streaming section as his rostership will likely exceed the 50% threshold guiding the selections. In his previous outing, Lodolo posted seven scoreless innings in Coors Field, allowing just two hits while fanning nine. Next up is a home date with the Washington Nationals who tote the sixth-lowest wOBA and seventh-highest strikeout rate facing left-handers.
The New York Mets handle velocity as well as any team in MLB, but they struggle facing off speed stuff and pitches with a wrinkle. St. Louis Cardinals RHP Erick Fedde is having command and control issues, though he's the type of pitcher that can keep the Mets offense off balance. Look for Fedde to get back on track, beginning with Friday's home date against the Mets.
Baltimore Orioles RHP Tomoyuki Sugano appears more comfortable lately, with a 2.37 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over his last three starts. He punched out only 12 batters in those 19 frames but issued just one free pass while yielding no homers. Sugano is in a great spot to stay on a roll at home against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals don't fan much, but their HardHit% is among the lowest in the league, feeding into Sugano's strength.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

Milwaukee Brewers LHP Jose Quintana is 4-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. However, he's only racked up 15 strikeouts while walking eight. A 2.61 BABIP and 93.8% left on base mark are suppressing his ERA below his 4.31 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA. On Friday, Quintana has a home matchup with the Chicago Cubs and the lineup sporting the third highest wOBA and lowest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill.

Saturday's best matchups for pitchers

Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Saturday

Last season, the Seattle Mariners tied for the league lead in strikeout rate. So far this season, they're fanning at a rate just a tick higher than league average. The club sports the fifth highest wOBA in the league, fueling the sixth most runs per game. The Mariners can pad those numbers on Saturday with a road date in Arlington where the Texas Rangers will send LHP Patrick Corbin to the hill. Jorge Polanco, Ben Williamson and Mitch Garver are the Seattle bats to target.

Saturday's best matchups for hitters

Saturday's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.

Saturday's Top Home Run Prop Bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $43.33 EV
One reason to bet this: Rogers Centre ranks as the second-best stadium in MLB for righty home runs.

Kyle Isbel | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.51 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the third-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate.

Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.81 EV
One reason to bet this: Globe Life Field has the sixth-lowest average fence height in the league.

Saturday's Top Pitchers Prop Bets

Hunter Brown | UNDER 6.5 K (-105)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $36.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the No. 25 venue in MLB for strikeouts.

Hunter Dobbins | UNDER 3.5 K (+130)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.46 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts for the second-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate.

Davis Martin | UNDER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.73 EV
One reason to bet this: Matt Thaiss (the White Sox expected catcher) grades out as a weak pitch framer.

Saturday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Padres at Pirates | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $0.49 EV

Guardians at Blue Jays | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.62 EV