Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

Todd ZolaApr 29, 2025, 02:28 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.8	Kodai Senga	R	ARI	87.4%	55%	5.8	1.8	6.4
13.1	Michael King	R	SF	97.8%	49%	5.6	1.8	6.3
13.1	Corbin Burnes	R	@NYM	95.9%	45%	6.0	2.0	6.0
11.4	Cole Ragans	L	@TB	96.7%	58%	5.5	2.2	6.1
11.0	Landen Roupp	R	@SD	8.4%	51%	5.5	2.0	5.3
11.0	Pablo Lopez	R	@CLE	93.3%	62%	5.9	2.8	5.9
10.9	Shane Smith	R	MIL	8.5%	44%	5.1	1.7	5.1
10.8	Tobias Myers	R	@CWS	3.7%	56%	5.5	2.3	5.0
10.7	Jackson Jobe	R	@HOU	20.9%	56%	5.2	1.8	4.6
9.7	Andrew Abbott	L	STL	16.0%	55%	5.5	2.8	5.6
9.6	Tony Gonsolin	R	MIA	4.6%	60%	5.3	2.4	4.9
9.6	Hayden Wesneski	R	DET	14.7%	44%	5.1	2.3	5.1
9.6	Nathan Eovaldi	R	ATH	89.0%	51%	5.5	2.8	5.4
9.5	Matthew Boyd	L	@PIT	13.1%	61%	5.2	2.3	5.1
9.2	Lucas Giolito	R	@TOR	3.7%	62%	5.8	3.2	5.7
9.0	Jake Irvin	R	@PHI	26.6%	51%	5.5	2.7	5.0
8.2	Luis Severino	R	@TEX	27.6%	49%	5.7	3.1	5.1
7.8	Emerson Hancock	R	LAA	0.8%	53%	4.8	2.2	3.9
7.7	Tyler Anderson	L	@SEA	13.3%	47%	5.2	2.7	5.0
7.1	Cade Povich	L	NYY	1.1%	54%	5.2	3.1	4.7
7.0	Taijuan Walker	R	WSH	4.6%	49%	5.2	2.9	4.6
6.7	Drew Rasmussen	R	KC	48.1%	42%	4.1	1.8	3.7
6.6	Luis Ortiz	R	MIN	3.4%	38%	5.2	2.9	4.8
6.3	Steven Matz	L	@CIN	1.1%	45%	4.8	2.8	4.7
6.1	Chris Sale	L	@COL	94.3%	61%	5.2	4.5	6.7
5.1	Cal Quantrill	R	@LAD	0.3%	40%	5.0	3.0	3.9
4.3	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	CHC	0.2%	39%	4.4	2.7	3.9
4.3	Carlos Carrasco	R	@BAL	0.8%	46%	4.6	3.2	3.9
	TBD		BOS	0.0%	38%	0.0	0.0	0.0
-1.5	Chase Dollander	R	ATL	2.6%	39%	4.8	6.0	4.8

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

Half of RHP Luis Severino's six efforts with the Athletics have registered as quality starts, including the prior pair of outings. He's in a great spot to extend his streak with an AL West road date in Arlington. The Texas Rangers are averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB, fueled by the third worst wOBA and an above average strikeout rate.
It wasn't pretty, but Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd gutted out a win against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start. It went into the books as a quality start, because only three of the six runs allowed were earned, but Boyd also yielded eight hits, two of which left Wrigley Field. Next up is a more favorable setup with a visit to the Steel City. The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging the sixth fewest runs per game while fanning at an elevated 26.6% clip facing lefty pitching.
Houston Astros RHP Hayden Wesneski has pitched better than his 1-2 record indicates. He's fanned 26 with just four walks in 28 frames; homers have been the issue as he's yielded six long balls. On Wednesday, Wesneski toes the rubber at home, squaring off with the Detroit Tigers and the lineup clubbing homers at the 13th lowest rate versus right-handers.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

Dodgers RHP Tony Gonsolin is slated to make his 2025 debut on Wednesday as he's been out since spring with a back injury. Gonsolin finished his four-start rehab stint with a five-inning effort, striking out three with two walks, so he should be stretched out enough to throw five innings on Wednesday at home against the Miami Marlins. On paper, this is a favorable matchup, and on most days Gonsolin would make the streaming section. However, even with a lesser opponent, there is risk, and the Dodgers are coming off a bullpen game. It's still early in the week, and there are a handful of better streaming options.

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

Wednesday is the last chance this week to take advantage of a Coors Field affair as the Colorado Rockies head to the City by the Bay for a four-game weekend set against the San Francisco Giants. Don't worry, the Rockies will have a six-game homestand next week. As for Wednesday, the home team faces Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale, so it's best to focus on visiting batters stepping in against RHP Chase Dollander. C Sean Murphy and OF Alex Verdugo are the primary targets, though with only 78.4% rostership, there is a chance Michael Harris II is available.
Other enticing options are Cubs bats facing Pirates RHP Carmen Mlodzinski. Most are rostered, with Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch and Carson Kelly available in at least half of ESPN leagues.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.