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Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
Half of RHP Luis Severino's six efforts with the Athletics have registered as quality starts, including the prior pair of outings. He's in a great spot to extend his streak with an AL West road date in Arlington. The Texas Rangers are averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB, fueled by the third worst wOBA and an above average strikeout rate.
It wasn't pretty, but Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd gutted out a win against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start. It went into the books as a quality start, because only three of the six runs allowed were earned, but Boyd also yielded eight hits, two of which left Wrigley Field. Next up is a more favorable setup with a visit to the Steel City. The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging the sixth fewest runs per game while fanning at an elevated 26.6% clip facing lefty pitching.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
Dodgers RHP Tony Gonsolin is slated to make his 2025 debut on Wednesday as he's been out since spring with a back injury. Gonsolin finished his four-start rehab stint with a five-inning effort, striking out three with two walks, so he should be stretched out enough to throw five innings on Wednesday at home against the Miami Marlins. On paper, this is a favorable matchup, and on most days Gonsolin would make the streaming section. However, even with a lesser opponent, there is risk, and the Dodgers are coming off a bullpen game. It's still early in the week, and there are a handful of better streaming options.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: D | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Mariners hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.67 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.75 ERA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.19 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A+ | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.02 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Wednesday is the last chance this week to take advantage of a Coors Field affair as the Colorado Rockies head to the City by the Bay for a four-game weekend set against the San Francisco Giants. Don't worry, the Rockies will have a six-game homestand next week. As for Wednesday, the home team faces Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale, so it's best to focus on visiting batters stepping in against RHP Chase Dollander. C Sean Murphy and OF Alex Verdugo are the primary targets, though with only 78.4% rostership, there is a chance Michael Harris II is available.
Other enticing options are Cubs bats facing Pirates RHP Carmen Mlodzinski. Most are rostered, with Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch and Carson Kelly available in at least half of ESPN leagues.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .360 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .359 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .265 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Rafael Devers | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 32% chance of this bet hitting, with a $68.37 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Devers grades out in the 78th percentile for power via my projection's version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances at 24.0.
Triston Casas | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.01 EV
One reason to bet this: Casas has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games. Compare his 101.2-mph average over the past seven days to his overall 2025 EV of 94.1 mph.
Jarren Duran | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.98 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system shows Rogers Centre as the second-best field in the league for lefty home runs.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Shane Smith | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.24 EV
One reason to bet this: The Milwaukee Brewers are forecasted to have the fourth-least strikeout-heavy set of hitters (19.8 K%) of all teams on the slate today.
Luis Severino | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.27 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects the fourth-most favorable hitting conditions of all games today.
Jackson Jobe | UNDER 3.5 K (-125)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.04 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity go, the fifth-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Red Sox @ Blue Jays | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 59% chance of RUN with a $9.89 EV
Yankees @ Orioles | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 60% chance of RUN with a $5.55 EV
Cardinals @ Reds | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 51% chance of NO RUN with a $2.10 EV