Each week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Tampa Bay Rays 3B Junior Caminero is posting solid, yet perhaps overlooked fantasy numbers in his first full MLB season, ranking just outside the top-30 hitters in both points and roto/categories formats with his 15 home runs and 41 RBI. The power is there, but he also leads the league in one particularly dubious category -- and not a fantasy one, of course. We're talking about the fact he's grounded into 16 double plays. What does this odd combination tell us? Perhaps little, but there are some positive comparisons here.
Don't be surprised... if Caminero ends up with 30 home runs and 30 GIDP
If so, Caminero would join quite the exclusive, noteworthy club. Only four players (Jim Rice, Dave Winfield, Tony Armas, Ivan Rodriguez) have hit 30 home runs in the same season in which they grounded into 30 double plays. Rice, Winfield and Armas all "achieved" this feat in 1983, which is odd enough. Rice and Armas were Boston Red Sox teammates. Rodriguez did so for the 1999 Texas Rangers, Winfield for the New York Yankees.
Rice, Winfield and Rodriguez are in the Hall of Fame. Nobody has provided 30 homers and 30 GIDP this century, although the great Albert Pujols came close in 2011, with 37 blasts and 29 GIDP. By the way, Pujols is headed to the Hall, too.
Caminero (like the others) is a right-handed power hitter with ground ball tendencies and something quite short of blazing speed. He is already quite the unique and special player. He is just 21. The best is yet to come. If Caminero is anything like Rice, Winfield, Rodriguez and Pujols? Wow, we surely will take that in fantasy.
Some see him as more of a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vibe, and that's OK, too. There is so much to like with Caminero. He hits baseballs hard, often off the barrel, and at a high rate of contact. His walk rate is among the lowest for qualifiers, but he doesn't strike out a lot. There is weirdness in Caminero's numbers. He should hit left-handers much better than a .659 OPS -- and he will. He should hit much better than a .566 OPS on the road -- and he will. His .250 BABIP (and it is .133 in June) should rise -- and it will.
Caminero is rostered in 86% of ESPN standard leagues, outside of the top-50 hitters and way too low, worse than Los Angeles Dodgers OF/2B/SS Tommy Edman, Kansas City Royals 3B/2B Maikel Garcia and slumping Baltimore Orioles C Adley Rutschman. Why? OK, so Caminero may not seem a points league favorite yet, not with a .249 batting average and mundane walk rate, but he's nearly top 30 and the real good stuff is coming.
Add or trade for this pending 30-HR/100-RBI fellow, one with batting average potential who may even steal double-digit bases. He will not be hitting .249 for long. Get him if you can in redraft leagues. In dynasty formats, he's an obvious target.
Meanwhile, Guerrero, hitting .287 with 168 home runs and a 23.1 WAR through seven seasons at barely 26 years old, is on a Hall of Fame track. He led the league by hitting into 26 double plays in 2022 and, with his 32 home runs that season, he just missed joining "the club." Guerrero's profile has always shown a high ground ball rate, just enough power to satiate the Blue Jays and us (except for the monster 48-HR 2021 campaign), and with a high contact rate and batting average. Guerrero draws walks and keeps a low K rate.
Caminero may develop similarly. The power is already there. Consistency is coming. And don't worry about the double plays. Hall of Famers do that.
Don't be surprised... if Yankees OF Trent Grisham hits 30 home runs
Now may seem like a wise time for fantasy investors to jump off the Grisham bandwagon. Grisham, a fantasy afterthought since perhaps the 2021 season, figured to have little to do on the powerful Yankees. Then he hit .292 with eight home runs in March/April, forcing himself into a key lineup spot just ahead of that Aaron Judge fellow. Grisham followed that hot start up by hitting .225 in May and, so far in June, he is at .172. Ah, it was all nice while it lasted, right?
However, there are signs that Grisham isn't quite done yet. He's still drawing walks, still scoring runs (of course he is, batting ahead of Judge) and metrics such as exit velocity and Barrels remain positive, even this month. Grisham is slumping, but there is little indication he will lose his valuable lineup spot.
Keep investing. A .218 batting average and .214 BABIP in home games shouldn't last long, nor should a .169 BABIP as a leadoff man. Grisham's chase rate is fine. He probably needs to be platooned (.302 slugging versus LHP), but that's OK. He's hammering right-handed pitching. He can keep hammering for another three-plus months.
Don't be surprised... if Philadelphia Phillies SS Trea Turner steals 50 bases for the first time
Turner, 31, stole his 19th base of the season on Wednesday, in his 66th game. Last season, truncated by a hamstring injury that cost him six weeks, Turner stole 19 bases in 121 games. It tends to be true that speedsters lose speed as they hit their 30s, but Turner remains fully capable. In fact, he is on pace for 46 steals, which would tie his career best, set in 2017 with the Washington Nationals. While fantasy managers may prefer the Turner who has surpassed 20 home runs in four consecutive seasons, with diluted stolen base totals from his younger days, that may be changing.
The Bryce Harper (wrist) injury seems to have ignited Turner's aggressiveness a bit, as he has swiped five bases over 10 June games. Challenged by manager Rob Thomson to reach base more, cause more havoc once he's there and score tons of runs, Turner is thriving. He is No. 9 on the Player Rater (roto), tied for 18th among hitters (with Bobby Witt Jr.) in points formats.
The rise in stolen base rate matters regardless of fantasy format, but don't overlook the pace for 112 runs. That would mark a career high as well. Mourn the slight drop in power if you will, but a more valuable player may emerge, especially if Harper's absence lasts longer than expected.
Don't be surprised... if Chicago White Sox SP/RP Shane Smith finishes as a top-30 fantasy SP
Nearly 100 starting pitchers are rostered in more leagues than Smith, the Rule 5 selection that Chicago plucked from the Milwaukee Brewers organization last December. However, only roughly 40 starting pitchers rank better than Smith in both points and roto formats. Something does not add up here. Smith may pitch in obscurity for the terrible White Sox, but his 2.37 ERA ranks 13th in baseball and his 1.17 WHIP is 38th. He is tied for 50th in strikeouts. And it all seems legit.
Smith, 25, was a Brewers 40-man roster casualty and the White Sox gobbled him up and have enjoyed his 13 starts so far. In fact, Smith has yet to permit more than three earned runs in any outing! He's the only pitcher that can boast this! Tarik Skubal can't say that, nor can Paul Skenes.
Smith isn't overpowering hitters. He isn't going terribly deep into games (seemingly by Chicago's design). Naturally, he also isn't winning much for a last-place team. That said, consistency matters. How many fantasy managers got caught by one of the awful Tanner Houck or Jesus Luzardo poundings? Smith's worst outing featured three earned runs.
Don't trade Freddie Freeman for Smith, of course. But why is a guy with a 2.37 ERA in mid-June still available in nearly 80% of ESPN standard leagues? It's a very good question.