Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Todd ZolaApr 26, 2025, 10:00 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.8	Roki Sasaki	R	PIT	82.2%	-270	8.5	59%	6.1	2.4	6.3
12.0	Luis Castillo	R	MIA	93.9%	-215	7.5	56%	6.0	2.6	6.1
12.0	Dylan Cease	R	TB	96.8%	-145	7.5	54%	5.7	2.2	6.4
11.6	Sonny Gray	R	MIL	95.5%	-150	7.5	57%	5.7	2.2	5.7
11.3	Jesus Luzardo	L	@CHC	87.3%	-115	6.5	56%	5.7	2.5	6.1
10.9	Ryan Pepiot	R	@SD	22.8%	+120	7.5	46%	5.4	2.1	5.4
10.6	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@MIN	68.1%	+110	8.5	43%	5.6	2.5	5.9
10.0	Mitch Keller	R	@LAD	53.4%	+220	8.5	41%	5.9	2.7	5.7
9.9	Merrill Kelly	R	ATL	21.4%	-120	9.5	47%	5.7	2.7	5.6
9.0	Framber Valdez	L	@KC	95.0%	-135	7.5	50%	5.7	3.0	5.6
8.7	Clay Holmes	R	@WSH	53.2%	-185	9.5	63%	5.3	2.7	5.3
8.7	Tyler Mahle	R	@SF	72.3%	+110	7.5	51%	4.7	1.9	4.4
8.6	Grant Holmes	R	@ARI	13.7%	EVEN	9.5	53%	5.0	2.4	5.1
8.5	Connor Gillispie	R	@SEA	0.6%	+180	7.5	44%	5.0	2.4	5.0
8.5	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	LAA	2.0%	-130	8.5	57%	4.9	2.4	4.8
8.3	Michael Wacha	R	HOU	11.5%	+115	7.5	50%	5.5	2.9	4.7
8.2	Ben Brown	R	PHI	3.9%	-105	6.5	44%	4.8	2.3	5.2
8.0	Tanner Houck	R	@CLE, Gm. 1	39.6%	-115	8.5	52%	5.3	2.7	4.7
8.0	Jeffrey Springs	L	CWS	12.7%	-215	8.5	58%	4.9	2.5	4.8
7.6	Charlie Morton	R	@DET, Gm. 2	3.6%	-110	8.5	55%	5.4	3.1	5.4
7.4	Robbie Ray	L	TEX	38.1%	-130	7.5	49%	4.7	2.4	4.9
7.4	Casey Mize	R	BAL, Gm. 1	52.2%	-110	8.5	49%	5.1	2.7	4.4
7.1	Jonathan Cannon	R	@ATH	0.6%	+180	8.5	42%	5.3	2.8	4.6
7.0	Ben Lively	R	BOS, Gm. 1	3.5%	-110	7.5	48%	5.1	2.9	4.7
6.8	Brandon Young	R	@DET, Gm. 1	0.4%	-110	8.5	51%	4.6	2.5	4.2
6.7	Logan Allen	L	BOS, Gm. 2	8.3%	-110	7.5	52%	5.0	2.9	4.8
6.7	Quinn Priester	R	@STL	4.1%	+125	7.5	43%	5.2	2.7	4.0
6.5	Hunter Greene	R	@COL	97.3%	-190	10.5	66%	5.4	4.5	6.6
6.1	Walker Buehler	R	@CLE, Gm. 2	39.5%	-115	8.5	48%	5.0	3.0	4.6
6.0	Keider Montero	R	BAL, Gm. 2	0.1%	-110	8.5	45%	5.1	3.1	4.5
4.4	Brad Lord	R	NYM	0.2%	+155	9.5	37%	3.7	2.2	3.5
-3.9	Antonio Senzatela	R	CIN	0.3%	+160	10.5	34%	4.3	5.9	3.7

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

Athletics LHP Jeffrey Springs left his previous start after only 2/3 innings with a hamstring cramp. He has been cleared to start Saturday against the Chicago White Sox in Sacramento. The visitors average the fewest runs per game in the league, while punching out at an above-average clip.
Please allow for a bending of the rules as Cincinnati Reds RHP Hunter Greene does not qualify as a streamer with near universal rostership. However, he's ranked at a point where he should be avoided. Some of the reason is based on history, but as Tristan H. Cockcroft detailed earlier this week, the Colorado Rockies' offense is historically poor. Suggesting overriding the rankings is rare, but in this instance, it's warranted; start Greene in Coors Field.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Mitch Keller is rostered in just over half of ESPN leagues, so he qualifies as someone to avoid for his road date with the Los Angeles Dodgers. It's not necessary to drop Keller, though his next outing is slated to be at home against the San Diego Padres, so releasing Keller, then picking him up again in a week makes sense.

Saturday's best matchups for pitchers

Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Saturday

Those looking for an alternative to the Reds in Coors Field should check out the availability of New York Mets hitters for their NL East matchup in the nation's capital with the Washington Nationals. Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil are in a good spot with RHP Brad Lord on the hill for the home team.

Saturday's best matchups for hitters

Cincinnati Reds batters vs. Rockies pitchers
The average hitter would post a .364 wOBA in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies batters vs. Reds pitchers
The average hitter would post a .358 wOBA in this matchup.

New York Mets LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.

Saturday's worst matchups for hitters

New York Mets LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies batters vs. Reds pitchers
The average hitter would post a .358 wOBA in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds batters vs. Rockies pitchers
The average hitter would post a .364 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Saturday's top home run prop bets

Teoscar Hernandez | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)

Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.88 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system projects Dodger Stadium as the fifth-best ballpark in the league for righty home runs.

Yordan Alvarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)

Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.17 EV
One reason to bet this: In the past week, Yordan Alvarez's 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23 degrees and 34 degrees) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.4%.

Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)

Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.91 EV
One reason to bet this: Langford's launch angle in recent games (35.3 degrees in the past seven days) is considerably higher than his 19.6 degrees seasonal figure.

Saturday's top pitcher prop bets

Yusei Kikuchi | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)

Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Shane Livensparger profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches in this game.

Brad Lord | UNDER 3.5 K (-160)

Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.58 EV
One reason to bet this: Alfonso Marquez projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches today.

Jeffrey Springs | OVER 5.5 K (-100)

Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.00 EV
One reason to bet this: Jeffrey Springs has averaged 98.1 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 94th percentile.

Saturday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Mets @ Nationals | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 51% chance of NO RUN with a $1.68 EV

Orioles @ Tigers | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $1.03 EV

Orioles @ Tigers | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $0.90 EV