Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

Todd ZolaApr 18, 2025, 07:04 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.7	Zack Wheeler	R	MIA	99.8%	-225	7.5	59%	6.4	2.4	6.9
12.5	David Peterson	L	STL	20.8%	-175	8.5	55%	5.7	2.0	6.0
11.5	Bryan Woo	R	@TOR	81.4%	-115	7.5	52%	5.5	1.9	4.6
11.5	Bowden Francis	R	SEA	63.0%	-105	7.5	48%	5.5	2.3	5.6
11.5	Cole Ragans	L	@DET	99.3%	-145	7.5	48%	5.7	2.4	6.5
11.1	Freddy Peralta	R	ATH	94.3%	-165	7.5	58%	5.6	2.7	6.5
11.0	Corbin Burnes	R	@CHC	97.0%	-130	10.5	58%	5.8	2.5	5.8
10.5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	@TEX	99.6%	-145	7.5	58%	5.9	2.9	6.0
10.4	Carlos Rodon	L	@TB	78.5%	-110	8.5	61%	5.5	2.6	5.6
10.1	Sandy Alcantara	R	@PHI	80.9%	+185	7.5	41%	6.2	2.9	5.5
9.6	Miles Mikolas	R	@NYM	1.6%	+145	8.5	45%	5.5	2.3	4.4
9.4	Jackson Jobe	R	KC	23.2%	+120	7.5	52%	5.1	2.0	4.2
9.1	Logan Webb	R	@LAA	97.6%	-160	8.5	62%	5.9	3.2	5.2
9.0	Andrew Abbott	L	@BAL	7.0%	+135	9.5	51%	5.6	2.9	5.3
7.3	Colin Rea	R	ARI	1.1%	+110	10.5	42%	5.2	2.9	4.6
7.2	Luis Ortiz	R	@PIT	5.8%	-145	8.5	55%	5.2	2.8	4.4
7.0	Ryan Gusto	R	SD	0.8%	-150	8.5	58%	4.2	2.0	3.9
6.9	Cade Povich	L	CIN	2.4%	-160	9.5	49%	5.3	3.0	4.6
6.8	Hunter Dobbins	R	CWS	1.2%	-190	9.5	58%	5.4	3.4	5.3
6.3	Bryce Elder	R	MIN	0.5%	-145	8.5	47%	5.3	3.3	4.7
6.2	Drew Rasmussen	R	NYY	43.4%	-110	8.5	39%	3.9	1.9	3.7
6.2	Jacob deGrom	R	LAD	88.8%	+120	7.5	42%	4.4	2.5	4.2
5.6	Chris Paddack	R	@ATL	0.6%	+120	8.5	53%	5.0	3.3	4.5
5.3	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	CLE	0.5%	+120	8.5	45%	4.2	2.4	4.1
5.3	J.T. Ginn	R	@MIL	2.1%	+140	7.5	42%	4.8	2.9	4.2
5.0	Tyler Anderson	L	SF	4.7%	+135	8.5	38%	5.2	3.4	4.6
4.8	Martin Perez	L	@BOS	28.8%	+160	9.5	42%	5.1	3.5	4.7
4.0	Kyle Hart	L	@HOU	1.8%	+125	8.5	42%	3.9	2.5	3.3
0.7	MacKenzie Gore	L	@COL	79.5%	-135	8.5	48%	4.8	5.5	6.1
0.5	Chase Dollander	R	WSH	8.5%	+115	8.5	52%	4.8	5.2	4.8

Pitchers to stream on Friday

New York Mets LHP David Peterson was initially slated for Thursday, but the club opted to call up RHP Justin Hagenman to serve as the primary pitcher, pushing Peterson to Friday. His first three outings have been quality starts and he's in another good spot with a home date against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals offense boast the fourth best wOBA this season. However, they've slumped over the past week as they're without SS Masyn Winn and C Ivan Herrera.
Detroit Tigers rookie RHP Jackson Jobe is coming off his first career quality start, a six-inning blanking of the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Jobe has only fanned nine in 15 innings, and the opposing Kansas City Royals put the ball in play, but they're averaging the third fewest runs per game in MLB.
The Boston Red Sox will likely recall RHP Hunter Dobbins for Friday's home start against the Chicago White Sox. Dobbins hasn't pitched well for Triple-A Worcester, but he collected a win in a spot-start earlier this month, fanning five Cardinals in five frames. The White Sox are averaging the second-fewest runs per game while striking out at an above average clip.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

It's obviously clear why Texas Rangers RHP Jacob deGrom is rostered in nearly 90% of ESPN leagues. However, after hurling five scoreless frames with six strikeouts in his opener against the Boston Red Sox, deGrom has yielded seven earned runs in the ensuing 9 2/3 frames, punching out just seven while surrendering four homers. Next up is a home date with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite the defending World Champions averaging just the 11th most runs per game, avoiding deGrom for this challenging matchup is the safe play.
Generally, it's wise to reserve all starting pitchers in Coors Field. Occasionally, it's tempting to take the chance on an upper-end visitor, such as Washington Nationals RHP MacKenzie Gore. For the season, the Colorado Rockies are scoring the fewest runs per game, but at home they're plating the 12th most, despite sporting the fourth highest home strikeout rate. In leagues with weekly games started limits, avoiding Gore makes sense. However, with no restrictions, his 32:6 strikeout to walk ratio in 23 innings merits taking the risk.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Friday

Most of the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres batters aren't available for streaming, but with the Astros handing the ball to RHP Ryan Gusto and the Padres countering with LHP Kyle Hart, it could be a high-scoring affair in Daikin Park. Astros' righty swingers Jeremy Pena and Cam Smith should benefit facing a southpaw while the Padres' Gavin Sheets and Jason Heyward are in a favorable spot with the platoon advantage.

Hitters to avoid on Friday

The Tigers are averaging the fourth most runs per game at home, but on Friday they square off with Royals LHP Cole Ragans. The lefty is an early candidate for April Pitcher of the Month with 34 strikeouts to just four free passes in 23 2/3 stanzas. Ragans has racked up double digit punch outs for three straight games.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Josh Naylor | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.02 EV
One reason to bet this: This contest is forecasted to have the third-worst conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.88 EV
One reason to bet this: The Rogers Centre roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this matchup five degrees hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate - favorable for offense.

George Springer | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all MLB stadiums.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Hunter Dobbins | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.37 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7 mph in this matchup, the third-strongest of the day for hitters.

Ryan Gusto | UNDER 3.5 K (+125)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.81 EV
One reason to bet this: Gusto and his 37.8% underlying GB% (via my projections) will be in a difficult position today.

Carlos Rodon | UNDER 6.5 K (-130)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.01 EV
One reason to bet this: Rodon and his 40% underlying GB% (via my projections) finds himself in a tough position.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Diamondbacks @ Cubs | YRFI (-140)
Projection: 60% chance of RUN with a $4.22 EV

Giants @ Angels | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $2.10 EV

Reds @ Orioles | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of NO RUN with a $0.32 EV