Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

ESPN Fantasy

Apr 3, 2025, 07:06 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
11.0	Joe Ryan	R	HOU	94.2%	-120	7.5	54%	5.7	2.9	6.5
10.5	Merrill Kelly	R	@NYY	22.6%	+105	9.5	59%	5.7	2.6	5.7
9.1	Tanner Houck	R	@BAL	63.0%	EVEN	9.5	53%	5.6	2.7	4.9
8.9	Hunter Brown	R	@MIN	88.2%	EVEN	7.5	46%	5.3	2.8	5.9
8.7	Nestor Cortes	L	CIN	26.9%	-120	7.5	51%	5.4	3.0	5.4
7.9	Taijuan Walker	R	COL	4.2%	-235	9.5	61%	5.4	3.0	5.0
7.8	Charlie Morton	R	BOS	10.5%	-120	9.5	47%	5.5	3.2	5.6
6.8	Nick Lodolo	L	@MIL	26.5%	EVEN	7.5	49%	5.1	3.1	5.5
4.9	Carlos Carrasco	R	ARI	1.0%	-125	9.5	41%	4.7	3.0	4.0
3.4	Antonio Senzatela	R	@PHI	0.4%	+195	9.5	39%	4.1	2.9	3.8

Pitchers to stream on Thursday

It's an abbreviated five-game slate, with three starters precluded from streaming status with rostership rates well over 50%. The two highest-ranked options according to Thursday's grid are both risky, beginning with Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly in a road affair at Yankee Stadium. The venue is latently a pitcher's park, despite being very homer friendly. Kelly sports the 11th-lowest HR/9 of anyone hurling at least 450 innings since 2022, but it's a risk banking on Kelly to keep Aaron Judge and friends in the yard.
Milwaukee Brewers LHP Nestor Cortes checks in as the fifth-highest ranked starter on Thursday's card for his home date with the Cincinnati Reds. American Family Field is similar to Yankee Stadium in that it's perceived as a hitter's park, but it suppresses runs by lowering hits and embellishing strikeouts, despite aiding home runs. A two-inning sample may be small, but Bill James taught us that extremes in small samples can be meaningful, and Cortes surrendered five homers while walking five in his season opener on the road against the New York Yankees. If you're willing to chalk that effort up to jitters opening in his former digs against his old teammates, then Cortes is in play on a day where it's probably better to find relievers to stream instead of starting pitchers.
With that in mind, Brewers RHP Trevor Megill, Diamondbacks LHP A.J. Puk and Philadelphia Phillies RHP Jordan Romano are all available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues and in play for a save.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Thursday

Veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco making the Yankees rotation is a great story, but it's out of desperation as opposed to merit. Sure, Carrasco enjoyed a solid spring, but it isn't enough to ignore a 5.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP since 2019. The Diamondbacks hitters, including Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith, are in a good spot.

Hitters to avoid on Thursday

It's going to be cold in Minneapolis when the Minnesota Twins entertain the Houston Astros. The game features a pair of solid starters, with RHP Joe Ryan taking the hill for the home team and being opposed by RHP Hunter Brown. Even on a slate with a sparser choice of replacements, avoiding all Twins and Astros bats is advisable.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Triston Casas | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $48.59 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.6 mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.

Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.29 EV
One reason to bet this: Mullins has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs of late, hitting balls between 23-34 degrees 37.5% of the time over the past seven days.

Rafael Devers | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.03 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, this contest has the most favorable hitting weather on the schedule.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Joe Ryan | OVER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.18 EV
One reason to bet this: With eight hitters who bat from the same side in the opposing team's projected offense, Ryan ought to benefit from holding such a great platoon advantage.

Charlie Morton | OVER 5.5 K (-120)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.88 EV
One reason to bet this: The Boston Red Sox have three batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per my projections) -- Casas, Trevor Story, Connor Wong.

Merrill Kelly | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.96 EV
One reason to bet this: Kellys 91.9 mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in only the 24th percentile of all starting pitchers.