Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

ESPN Fantasy

Apr 2, 2025, 07:30 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
17.1	Zack Wheeler	R	COL	99.8%	-320	7.5	70%	6.4	2.0	7.4
14.1	Pablo Lopez	R	@CWS	97.1%	-185	7.5	66%	6.2	2.4	6.8
13.7	Blake Snell	L	ATL	99.2%	-275	8.5	61%	5.7	1.9	6.8
13.6	Tarik Skubal	L	@SEA	99.8%	-125	6.5	54%	5.7	1.9	6.3
13.0	Luis Castillo	R	DET	98.0%	+105	6.5	46%	6.1	2.4	6.5
12.6	Paul Skenes	R	@TB	99.8%	-125	7.5	51%	5.6	2.0	6.2
12.6	Sonny Gray	R	LAA	94.7%	-155	8.5	61%	5.7	2.2	6.1
12.3	Framber Valdez	L	SF	99.4%	-165	7.5	49%	5.9	2.4	6.5
12.1	Dylan Cease	R	CLE	99.4%	-185	7.5	56%	5.7	2.2	6.2
12.0	Landen Roupp	R	@HOU	4.2%	+140	7.5	51%	5.1	1.7	5.7
11.2	Hunter Greene	R	TEX	92.2%	-130	8.5	59%	5.6	2.7	6.6
10.7	Ryan Pepiot	R	PIT	42.8%	+105	7.5	49%	5.3	2.1	5.2
10.5	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@STL	78.5%	+130	8.5	39%	5.5	2.3	5.6
10.5	Easton Lucas	L	WSH	0.1%	+115	8.5	58%	5.3	2.1	5.1
10.4	Zac Gallen	R	@NYY	91.1%	+125	8.5	51%	5.6	2.6	5.9
10.1	Freddy Peralta	R	KC	91.4%	-110	7.5	45%	5.5	2.7	6.2
10.0	Carlos Rodon	L	ARI	86.3%	-150	8.5	49%	5.5	2.5	5.6
9.9	Cole Ragans	L	@MIL	98.7%	-110	7.5	55%	5.5	2.6	6.0
9.8	Garrett Crochet	L	@BAL	99.3%	-120	7.5	47%	5.2	2.6	6.2
9.6	Jameson Taillon	R	@ATH	5.4%	-110	8.5	55%	5.6	2.7	4.9
9.5	Zach Eflin	R	BOS	59.5%	EVEN	7.5	53%	5.5	2.8	5.2
8.9	Connor Gillispie	R	NYM	0.5%	+165	8.5	45%	5.4	2.6	5.3
8.9	Clay Holmes	R	@MIA	34.6%	-200	8.5	55%	5.4	2.6	5.1
8.6	Ben Lively	R	@SD	1.5%	+155	7.5	44%	5.3	2.4	4.3
8.2	Sean Burke	R	MIN	14.6%	+155	7.5	34%	5.1	2.7	5.4
7.9	MacKenzie Gore	L	@TOR	80.3%	-135	8.5	42%	5.1	2.7	5.5
7.6	Bryce Elder	R	@LAD	0.3%	+210	8.5	39%	5.4	2.7	4.7
7.5	Jeffrey Springs	L	CHC	37.6%	-110	8.5	45%	4.7	2.4	4.8
7.1	Kyle Freeland	L	@PHI	5.0%	+235	7.5	30%	5.4	3.0	4.6
6.3	Jack Leiter	R	@CIN	15.7%	+110	8.5	41%	4.6	2.8	4.9

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

At least so far, the Tampa Bay Rays pitching hasn't been intimidated by the hitter friendly nature of George Steinbrenner Field, though, to be fair, they've drawn a pair of weak offenses with the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates as the opposition. The Rays and Pirates wrap up a three-game set with RHP Ryan Pepiot starting the matinee for the home team, landing him as the top streamer on the card.
The Chicago White Sox are off to a surprising start with RHP Sean Burke setting the tone on Opening Day with six shutout frames against the Los Angeles Angels. Next up is a home date with the Minnesota Twins, whose offense tallied just six runs over their first four games.

Pitcher to avoid on Wednesday

Washington Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore posted one of the best starts to open the season, fanning 13 Philadelphia Phillies while walking just one spanning six scoreless frames. While this might be a harbinger of a much-anticipated breakthrough season, a road date with the Toronto Blue Jays and their talented group of right-handed batters will be a challenge.

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

Texas Rangers RHP Jack Leiter was impressive in his opener, punching out four Boston Red Sox while walking only one in five one-run innings. His second start is against the Cincinnati Reds in the Great American Ballpark. Jeimer Candelario, TJ Friedl and Gavin Lux are all in favorable spots facing the inconsistent Leiter.

Hitters to avoid on Wednesday

Admittedly more narrative than driven by numbers, it's best to avoid Baltimore Orioles batters on Wednesday, as they'll be facing LHP Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox are off to a slow start, but Crochet just signed a multi-year extension. Look for the lefty to prove he was worth it on the road in Camden Yards.

Betting tips

Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Mike Trout | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.95 EV
One reason to bet this: Busch Stadium has the ninth-lowest fence height (on average) in MLB.

Triston Casas | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Casas' flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to assess power) is in the 94th percentile at 96.9 mph.

Wilmer Flores | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Flores has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs of late, lifting balls between 23-34 degrees 30% of the time over the past seven days.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Freddy Peralta | OVER 6.5 K (+110)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.64 EV
One reason to bet this: Because flyball pitchers hold a significant advantage over flyball batters, Peralta and his 37.8% underlying FB% (according to my projections) will be in a strong spot in today's matchup going up against three opposing FB batters.

Yusei Kikuchi | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.03 EV
One reason to bet this: Kikuchi has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 10.45 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.96 -- a 0.49 K/9 discrepancy.

Zac Gallen | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball hitters hold a big edge over groundball pitchers, Gallen and his 43.6% underlying GB% (via my projections) finds himself in a difficult position in this outing matching up with zero opposing GB bats.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Rangers @ Reds | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $5.37 EV

Red Sox @ Orioles | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $3.98 EV

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters