Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

ESPN Fantasy

Mar 31, 2025, 08:04 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR MONDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
14.7	Tyler Glasnow	R	ATL	96.1%	63%	5.9	2.0	7.0
12.0	Cristopher Sanchez	L	COL	83.6%	66%	5.8	2.4	5.7
11.7	Ronel Blanco	R	SF	59.8%	54%	5.6	2.2	5.9
10.5	Kyle Hart	L	CLE	0.5%	55%	5.7	2.3	4.3
10.5	Jackson Jobe	R	@SEA	24.1%	54%	5.3	2.3	5.3
10.0	David Peterson	L	@MIA	7.6%	59%	5.5	2.5	5.7
9.9	Chris Paddack	R	@CWS	0.8%	57%	5.5	2.6	5.4
9.0	Jordan Hicks	R	@HOU	2.1%	46%	5.2	2.5	5.0
8.5	Emerson Hancock	R	DET	0.7%	46%	5.0	2.2	4.1
8.1	Luis Ortiz	R	@SD	2.7%	45%	5.4	2.4	4.0
8.0	Brady Singer	R	TEX	30.3%	53%	5.6	3.4	5.4
7.9	Miles Mikolas	R	LAA	2.3%	56%	5.5	2.8	4.2
7.7	Bowden Francis	R	WSH	65.8%	51%	5.3	3.2	5.3
7.5	Cade Povich	L	BOS	1.2%	52%	5.1	2.9	5.0
7.3	Tyler Anderson	L	@STL	1.6%	44%	5.4	2.7	4.5
7.3	Kris Bubic	L	@MIL	3.9%	57%	5.1	2.9	5.0
7.3	Ben Brown	R	@ATH	1.7%	54%	4.5	2.4	5.2
7.0	Martin Perez	L	MIN	0.3%	43%	5.4	2.9	4.5
6.9	Joey Estes	R	CHC	0.2%	46%	5.1	2.9	4.3
6.7	Drew Rasmussen	R	PIT	11.3%	56%	4.0	1.8	3.8
6.6	Trevor Williams	R	@TOR	0.6%	49%	5.1	2.8	4.1
6.5	Cal Quantrill	R	NYM	0.3%	41%	5.3	2.8	4.2
6.5	Tyler Alexander*	L	KC	0.1%	43%	4.6	2.6	4.3
6.1	German Marquez	R	@PHI	0.3%	34%	4.4	2.4	4.3
6.0	Sean Newcomb	L	@BAL	0.2%	48%	4.0	2.0	3.8
5.8	Kumar Rocker	R	@CIN	12.3%	47%	4.2	2.6	4.4
4.6	Grant Holmes	R	@LAD	9.8%	37%	4.4	2.9	4.5
1.8	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	@TB	0.1%	44%	1.5	0.9	1.4

Pitchers to stream on Monday

Trusting rookies making their first MLB start is a slippery slope, but Detroit Tigers RHP Jackson Jobe got his first taste of The Show last season, including pitching as a reliever in the postseason. He faces a Mariners lineup which struggled to score runs at home against the Athletics, so streaming Jobe can help get the week off to a solid start.
By the way they handled him last season and this spring, it's clear that the Minnesota Twins will give RHP Chris Paddack every chance to succeed. He is in a great spot to get things rolling early with a road date against a Chicago White Sox team that may not be as good as last season's historically poor squad.
Since there are no starters to avoid, in large part because one the criteria is sporting over 50% rostership and almost all the hurlers make up the back end of their respective rotations, let's offer a bonus streamer. New York Mets LHP David Peterson will usually be worthy of a spot start at home, but on Monday he has a favorable road matchup in South Beach with the Miami Marlins.

Hitters to stream on Monday

Texas Rangers starter Kumar Rocker has the makings of a frontline starter, but he's still raw and unestablished. After a rough opening weekend at home against a solid San Francisco Giants rotation, the Cincinnati Reds should be able to take advantage of their great home hitting park with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario, Gavin Lux and Jake Fraley all available in 90% of ESPN leagues.
The Baltimore Orioles have already flashed their power and the road and now get to swing for the shallower left field fences in Camden Yards. They'll be facing Boston Red Sox LHP Sean Newcomb, landing right-handers Tyler O'Neill and Ryan Mountcastle among the best batters to stream into your lineup.

Betting tips

Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's Top Home Run Prop Bets

Wilmer Flores | OVER 0.5 HR (+650)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.73 EV
One reason to bet this: Flores' 21-degree launch angle (a reliable metric to measure a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in MLB (93rd percentile).

Jose Siri | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.04 EV
One reason to bet this: The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 12 degrees hotter than the average outdoor game of the day, which is favorable for offense.

Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Mullins' 21.5-degree launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in baseball (98th percentile).

Today's Top Pitcher Prop Bets

Drew Rasmussen | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 92% chance of this bet hitting, with a $88.23 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the third-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

Carmen Mlodzinski | UNDER 3.5 K (-125)
Projection: 90% chance of this bet hitting, with a $78.54 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.5-mph in this game, the fifth-strongest of the day for batters.

Martin Perez | UNDER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Perez has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching a 7.13 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 6.59.