Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

ESPN Fantasy

Mar 30, 2025, 10:45 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.6	Bryan Woo	R	ATH	75.1%	-175	7.5	59%	5.4	1.7	5.1
11.2	Nick Pivetta	R	ATL	67.6%	-125	7.5	48%	5.4	2.3	6.1
10.9	Chris Bassitt	R	BAL	33.3%	-130	8.5	52%	6.0	2.7	5.7
10.6	Bailey Ober	R	@STL	93.5%	-125	8.5	48%	5.5	2.3	5.4
10.4	Aaron Nola	R	@WSH	99.3%	-155	8.5	60%	6.0	3.1	5.9
9.8	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	CHC	8.8%	-125	9.5	53%	5.7	2.7	5.4
9.6	Taj Bradley	R	COL	65.0%	-210	7.5	54%	5.4	2.7	5.7
9.5	Andre Pallante	R	MIN	5.6%	+105	8.5	52%	5.4	2.3	4.9
9.1	AJ Smith-Shawver	R	@SD	7.4%	+105	7.5	52%	4.7	1.8	4.7
9.1	Max Meyer	R	PIT	7.3%	-105	7.5	46%	5.3	2.4	5.0
9.0	JP Sears	L	@SEA	4.1%	+145	7.5	41%	5.4	2.6	5.0
8.9	Aaron Civale	R	@NYY	6.5%	+120	8.5	43%	5.2	2.5	5.2
8.8	Tanner Bibee	R	@KC	92.5%	-105	7.5	49%	5.6	3.0	5.2
8.6	Jack Kochanowicz	R	@CWS	2.3%	-125	8.5	52%	5.5	2.6	4.1
8.6	Andrew Heaney	L	@MIA	5.3%	-115	7.5	54%	5.0	2.3	4.9
8.5	Marcus Stroman	R	MIL	8.5%	-145	8.5	57%	5.3	2.4	4.5
8.4	Davis Martin	R	LAA	1.4%	+105	8.5	48%	5.0	2.5	5.1
8.3	Nick Martinez	R	SF	39.3%	+105	8.5	52%	5.0	2.5	4.8
8.2	Richard Fitts	R	@TEX	3.4%	+155	8.5	55%	5.1	2.6	4.3
8.0	Matthew Boyd	L	@ARI	6.1%	+105	9.5	47%	4.9	2.4	4.7
7.8	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	@TOR	12.4%	+110	8.5	48%	5.2	2.7	4.5
7.6	Michael Wacha	R	CLE	23.4%	-115	7.5	51%	5.4	3.0	4.8
7.6	Ryan Feltner	R	@TB	0.7%	+170	7.5	46%	5.2	2.6	4.5
7.5	Mitchell Parker	L	PHI	2.5%	+130	8.5	40%	5.1	2.8	5.2
6.9	Jacob deGrom	R	BOS	92.8%	-185	8.5	45%	4.2	2.2	4.5
6.4	Robbie Ray	L	@CIN	42.9%	-125	8.5	48%	4.4	2.5	4.8

Pitchers to stream on Sunday

Andrew Heaney is the elder statesman of an otherwise young and promising Pittsburgh Pirates rotation, with a couple of exciting prospects knocking on the door. Heaney draws a Miami Marlins' lineup on Sunday without an established hitter facing a left-handed pitcher.
With so much attention paid to Los Angeles Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki, Baltimore Orioles righty Tomoyuki Sugano flew under the radar. Debuting in the Rogers Centre will be a challenge, but Sugano has pitched on the big stage and the Toronto Blue Jays lineup has some holes.

Pitchers to avoid on Sunday

This will be a hard sell to those spending a high draft pick on Jacob deGrom, but the veteran labored with his mechanics in the spring. It's an extended week in ESPN scoring, so it's not necessary to take early risks.

Hitters to stream on Sunday

Temperatures are slated to be in the low 80s in George Steinbrenner Field on Sunday, ideal conditions for Tampa Bay Rays left-handers Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe to take advantage of Colorado Rockies righty Ryan Feltner.
After yesterday's record-setting performance, highlighting New York Yankees hitters feels like low-hanging fruit, but several left-handed batters are available and in a great spot facing Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Aaron Civale. Ben Rice and Trent Grisham lead the way, and don't overlook right-handed Anthony Volpe.

Betting tips

Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's Top Home Run Prop Bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% - 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.02 EV
One reason to bet this: Globe Life Field has the seventh-lowest average fence height.

TJ Friedl | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.51 EV
One reason to bet this: Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% - 96th percentile) and will have an advantage hitting them towards MLB's seventh-shallowest RF fences today.

Today's Top Pitcher Prop Bets

Marcus Stroman | UNDER 1.5 ER (+125)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Yankee Stadium's CF dimensions are the sixth-deepest in the league

Michael Wacha | UNDER 1.5 ER (+110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.55 EV
One reason to bet this: It is anticipated that we will see a "pitchers umpire" (Gabe Morales) calling pitches in this game.

Robbie Ray | UNDER 6.5 K (-140)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.38 EV
One reason to bet this: Manny Gonzalez projects as a "hitters umpire" and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone today.