Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers aren't nearly as appealing for home starts in George Steinbrenner Field as opposed to Tropicana Field. However, when healthy, RHP Shane Baz can be dominating, and the opposing Pittsburgh Pirates lineup isn't intimidating.
Detroit Tigers RHP Casey Mize exhibited more dominance than usual in the spring and now he faces the Seattle Mariners lineup who led MLB in strikeouts last season and are among the highest this year. Plus, the road affair is in T-Mobile Park, the league's most pitcher-friendly venue.
Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday
Home field advantage is real. On average, major league pitchers' skills are 3-5% better at home. Even so, Toronto Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios is a risk for his Tuesday outing in Rogers Center against the Washington Nationals. Berrios is prone to baserunners and the Nationals are aggressive on the basepaths.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
Milwaukee Brewers RHP Chad Patrick will face the Kansas City Royals at home in his first big league start. He demonstrated strikeout ability in the minors, but he also was vulnerable to the long ball and American Family Field is one of the best home run parks in the league. Vinnie Pasquantino is likely unavailable, but Jonathan India, Michael Massey and Hunter Renfroe are in a good spot to take advantage.
Hitters to avoid on Tuesday
Hot and cold streaks for batters are non-predictive. They may be real, but research shows a streak can begin or end on any given day. That said, Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers is experiencing more than a cold start. His bat speed is slow, and his timing is noticeably off. There are health concerns regarding his lingering shoulder issues as well as his conditioning. Despite being considered one of the best hitters in the game coming into the season, benching Devers until his bat speed and contact pick up is advisable.
Betting tips
Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season. His 25.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 32.2 expected HR/600.
Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+650)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.80 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 1 stadium in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, via my projections, is Great American Ball Park.
Wilmer Flores | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.16 EV
One reason to bet this: Based on Statcast metrics, Flores has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his 9.9 actual HR/600. His expected HR/600 plate over this time is 21.7.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Chad Patrick | OVER 2.5 K (-160)
Projection: 79% chance of this bet hitting, with a $44.33 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles American Family Field as the best field in the game for strikeouts.
Nathan Eovaldi | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.72 EV
One reason to bet this: It's anticipated that we will see a "hitter's umpire" (Mark Ripperger) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.
Jose Berrios | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.42 EV
One reason to bet this: The Rogers Centre roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 15 degrees hotter than the average outdoor game (of all games today), which is favorable for offense.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 2.95 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.33 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Mariners hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.50 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Mets hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.61 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.56 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.50 ERA in this matchup.