Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Friday
The Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies were the only teams that were not in action on Thursday. Ryan Pepiot draws the first start of the season for the Rays as they begin play for the first time at Steinbrenner Field. The Rockies offense is weak away from home, landing Pepiot as the top streamer of the slate.
At 71.3%, Mitch Keller's current roster percentage exceeds the usual 50% cutoff, but a road matchup against the Miami Marlins is too good to ignore. Take a second to see if the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander is available in your league.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Jack Flaherty of the Detroit Tigers enjoyed a solid spring after re-signing with the team in February. There is probably only one scenario to think about benching him, and that's on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Tigers had dealt the righty to the Dodgers last season at the trade deadline, with Flaherty helping bring the World Series back to Chavez Ravine. Playing it safe when Flaherty faces his former mates is very defensible.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Most of the Boston Red Sox offense is not available, with lefty swinging Wilyer Abreu being an exception. Abreu enjoys the platoon edge on Texas Rangers RHP Jack Leiter, putting Abreu in play for what should be a productive effort from the Red Sox on Friday.
The left-handed contingent will often get highlighted in this space for home games being played at Steinbrenner Field, but on Friday it is the right-handed Christopher Morel who is poised for a big game against Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland.
Betting tips
Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.86 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6%, 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
Bryan Reynolds | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.99 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects the fourth-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+380)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.14 EV
One reason to bet this: Cruz is likely to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the Miami Marlins bullpen only has one same-handed RP.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Charlie Morton | UNDER 3.5 K (+115)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $55.42 EV
One reason to bet this: The Toronto Blue Jays (16.5 K%) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams today.
Jack Flaherty | OVER 4.5 K (-140)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.58 EV
One reason to bet this: Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report projects the third-coldest temperature of the day at 59 degrees.
Ryan Pepiot | UNDER 1.5 ER (-125)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.43 EV
One reason to bet this: The second-worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Colorado Rockies.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Rockies @ Rays | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $3.70 EV
Pirates @ Marlins | YRFI (+100)
Projection: 51% chance of NO RUN with a $0.42 EV