Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

May 8, 2025, 04:40 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.8	Tarik Skubal	L	TEX	99.8%	63%	5.8	2.0	6.2
12.3	Luis Castillo	R	TOR	94.3%	53%	6.1	2.4	5.8
11.8	Kevin Gausman	R	@SEA	86.0%	47%	5.8	2.3	6.3
11.7	Jameson Taillon	R	@NYM	15.8%	51%	5.8	2.1	5.0
10.9	Hunter Brown	R	CIN	96.1%	53%	5.4	2.3	6.2
10.8	Clay Holmes	R	CHC	60.0%	49%	5.3	1.9	5.3
10.7	Roki Sasaki	R	@ARI	75.5%	59%	6.1	2.9	6.0
9.9	Jose Quintana	L	@TB	22.2%	55%	5.7	2.5	4.6
9.8	Aaron Nola	R	@CLE	91.8%	52%	5.8	3.0	6.0
9.3	Erick Fedde	R	@WSH	8.9%	54%	5.6	2.7	5.2
9.2	Nick Martinez	R	@HOU	23.9%	47%	5.1	2.2	4.6
8.8	Max Meyer	R	@CWS	39.4%	53%	5.4	2.9	5.4
8.1	Mitchell Parker	L	STL	17.5%	46%	5.3	2.6	4.5
7.9	Jordan Hicks	R	@MIN	6.2%	45%	5.3	2.7	4.9
7.8	Zack Littell	R	MIL	2.8%	45%	5.2	2.6	4.2
7.6	Chris Paddack	R	SF	0.9%	55%	5.1	2.7	4.7
7.6	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	LAD	6.0%	41%	5.4	3.0	5.4
7.3	Will Warren	R	@ATH	2.6%	45%	4.8	2.6	4.9
7.3	Bryce Elder	R	@PIT	1.9%	57%	5.4	3.0	4.5
7.0	Osvaldo Bido	R	NYY	1.5%	55%	4.7	2.4	4.2
6.7	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	@LAA	11.8%	56%	5.2	3.1	4.5
6.7	Hunter Dobbins	R	@KC	2.0%	51%	5.5	3.4	4.6
6.6	Gavin Williams	R	PHI	11.7%	48%	4.8	2.8	5.2
6.5	Bryse Wilson	R	MIA	0.1%	47%	4.7	2.5	4.3
5.9	Patrick Corbin	L	@DET	1.4%	37%	5.4	3.3	4.7
5.6	Michael Lorenzen	R	BOS	5.7%	49%	5.2	3.3	4.3
5.3	Bailey Falter	L	ATL	0.6%	43%	4.7	2.7	3.7
5.0	Kyle Hendricks	R	BAL	0.7%	44%	5.1	3.2	3.8
0.1	Randy Vasquez	R	@COL	1.3%	60%	4.5	4.7	3.9
-5.1	Antonio Senzatela	R	SD	0.1%	40%	4.4	6.4	3.5

Pitchers to stream on Friday

Last season's gentle handling of RHP Max Meyer is paying off for the Miami Marlins, as the 26-year-old is off to a solid start to the season. Meyer completed six frames only four times in 11 starts last season. He has already accomplished that feat four times in seven starts this season. Though Meyer has struggled in his last two outings, yielding 10 earned runs over a combined nine stanzas, Friday is the ideal spot to get back on track in a road date against a Chicago White Sox team with the lowest wOBA in the league.
After striking out just nine batters while surrendering six homers over his first 28 innings, Baltimore Orioles RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has 12 punchouts with just one homer allowed over his last 11 stanzas. The 35-year-old veteran from Japan has a favorable road date with the Los Angeles Angels on Friday night. Sugano should be able to continue to rack up whiffs against the lineup with the second-highest strikeout rate in MLB, and he doesn't have to contend with OF Mike Trout.
Using starting pitchers against the Kansas City Royals is a slippery slope. They don't strike out much, but they average the fourth-fewest runs per game. In rotisserie leagues with an inning or start limit, using pitchers against the Royals limits the strikeout category. In all other formats, it's an alluring stream. On Friday, Boston Red Sox RHP Hunter Dobbins has a road date with the Royals where the visitors should be the favorites.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

Milwaukee Brewers LHP Jose Quintana sports a 2.83 ERA, but his 88.4% left-on-base mark suppresses his ERA well below the associated 4.20 xFIP and 4.37 SIERA. A road affair against the Tampa Bay Rays seems appealing since the Rays struggle against left-handed pitching, but it has the feel of a trap game. Their wOBA against lefties is low, but the Rays' walk rate is well above average and they strike out a tad below average.

Hitters to stream on Friday

San Diego Padres 1B/2B Jake Cronenworth is expected to be activated from the IL in advance of the club's three-game set at Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies are scheduled to start a trio of right-handers, beginning with Antonio Senzatela. The left-handed Cronenworth will enjoy the platoon edge all weekend, and his high fly-ball rate should benefit from the thin air.
Texas Rangers LHP Patrick Corbin's 3.28 ERA is a mirage, as evidenced by a 4.24 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA. The veteran southpaw will likely face a heavy dose of the Detroit Tigers' righty-swinging contingent, led by Justyn-Henry Malloy, Gleyber Torres and Andy Ibanez.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.