Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Opening Day

ESPN Fantasy

Mar 27, 2025, 12:43 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR OPENING DAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.1	Blake Snell	L	DET	99.7%	-160	6.5	53%	5.6	1.7	7.0
13.9	Zack Wheeler	R	@WSH	99.9%	-165	7.5	68%	6.3	2.5	6.4
13.5	Logan Gilbert	R	ATH	99.8%	-160	6.5	56%	6.0	2.2	6.1
13.5	Chris Sale	L	@SD	99.8%	-130	6.5	57%	5.8	1.9	6.3
13.4	Paul Skenes	R	@MIA	99.9%	-155	6.5	53%	5.7	1.9	6.5
12.8	Framber Valdez	L	NYM	99.5%	-130	7.5	58%	6.0	2.4	6.7
12.7	Tarik Skubal	L	@LAD	99.9%	+135	6.5	47%	5.6	2.0	6.2
12.0	Sonny Gray	R	MIN	96.0%	EVEN	7.5	53%	5.8	2.3	6.1
11.9	Michael King	R	ATL	98.3%	+110	6.5	43%	5.5	2.0	6.1
11.8	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@CWS	85.1%	-155	7.5	58%	5.6	2.3	6.1
11.7	Pablo Lopez	R	@STL	99.1%	-120	7.5	47%	6.0	2.5	6.1
11.4	Sandy Alcantara	R	PIT	86.2%	+130	6.5	47%	6.3	2.7	5.7
11.2	Freddy Peralta	R	@NYY	93.6%	+120	7.5	47%	5.5	2.4	6.4
10.8	Hunter Greene	R	SF	93.9%	-105	7.5	51%	5.5	2.7	6.8
10.7	Carlos Rodon	L	MIL	87.9%	-145	7.5	53%	5.5	2.4	5.8
10.0	Jose Berrios	R	BAL	73.6%	-120	8.5	49%	5.8	2.7	5.4
10.0	Zach Eflin	R	@TOR	59.1%	EVEN	8.5	51%	5.6	2.6	4.9
9.9	Logan Webb	R	@CIN	97.8%	-115	7.5	49%	6.0	3.1	5.9
9.8	Garrett Crochet	L	@TEX	99.8%	-120	7.5	49%	5.0	2.6	6.5
9.7	Luis Severino	R	@SEA	28.9%	+135	6.5	44%	5.6	2.6	5.5
9.5	Zac Gallen	R	CHC	94.9%	-125	8.5	47%	5.5	2.7	5.9
9.3	Justin Steele	L	@ARI	93.0%	+105	8.5	53%	5.4	2.7	5.6
8.7	Cole Ragans	L	CLE	99.6%	-165	7.5	54%	5.6	3.0	5.7
8.5	Clay Holmes	R	@HOU	44.7%	+110	7.5	42%	5.2	2.6	5.1
8.5	Nathan Eovaldi	R	BOS	44.7%	EVEN	7.5	51%	5.5	3.0	5.5
8.4	Sean Burke	R	LAA	6.8%	+130	7.5	42%	5.1	2.7	5.4
6.0	Ben Lively	R	@KC	0.9%	+140	7.5	46%	5.2	3.2	4.2
5.5	MacKenzie Gore	L	PHI	52.2%	+140	7.5	32%	4.9	3.3	5.6

Pitchers to stream on Thursday

Sean Burke draws the Opening Day start for the Chicago White Sox. It will be cool in the Windy City, which tends to favor pitchers. Burke faces the Los Angeles Angels, whose lineup projects to be one of the weakest in the American League.
The Athletics will send Luis Severino to the hill in T-Mobile Park. The venue is as extreme for pitchers as Coors Field is for hitters. Plus, the Seattle Mariners offense isn't daunting.

Pitchers to avoid on Thursday

Chicago Cubs southpaw Justin Steele was hit hard in the second game of the Tokyo Series, in large part due to his having missed time during spring training due to an illness. He's still not sufficiently stretched out and must face the Arizona Diamondbacks, last season's top offense -- and likely one of this season's best as well.

Hitters to stream on Thursday

St. Louis Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol announced that Ivan Herrera will be behind the plate for the opener on the road against the Minnesota Twins. Look for the home team to run, with Willi Castro, Harrison Bader and Byron Buxton best able to take advantage of Herrera's weak arm. Get those early-season steals whenever you can!

Betting tips

Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Mookie Betts | OVER 0.5 HR (+650)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.63 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2 mph in this matchup, the third-best of the day for hitters.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.96 EV
One reason to bet this: Home-field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Guerrero will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Wilmer Flores | OVER 0.5 HR (+750)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.66 EV
One reason to bet this: Flores pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8%, 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's seventh-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Sonny Gray | OVER 5.5 K (-140)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.08 EV
One reason to bet this: Per my projections, the team with the fourth-most strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Twins with a 24.5 underlying K%.

Sandy Alcantara | OVER 5.5 K (+120)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.43 EV
One reason to bet this: Alcantara will have the handedness advantage against six opposing hitters in this matchup.

Blake Snell | OVER 6.5 K (-160)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.17 EV
One reason to bet this: Snell currently projects as the fifth-best starting pitcher in MLB as it relates to his strikeout talent, according to my projections.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Mets @ Astros | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $3.70 EV

Twins @ Cardinals | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 60% chance of NO RUN with a $3.33 EV