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          Fantasy baseball Thursday advice: Joey Estes worth starting

          Joey Estes quietly has been pitching very well and is worth streaming Thursday. D. Ross Cameron/USA TODAY Sports
          • Mike Sheets
          Sep 5, 2024, 12:31 PM ET

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Estes riding solid stretch

          Thursday's abbreviated nine-game slate is short on exciting streaming options. Fortunately, streamers don't need to be exciting; they just need to get the job done. On Thursday, Oakland Athletics starter Joey Estes should get the job done against the Seattle Mariners.

          Estes, who is rostered in only 5% of ESPN leagues, has been extremely effective of late. Through his last nine games (eight starts), the 22-year-old righty holds a 2.88 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. During that nine-game stretch, he has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in eight outings, never allowing more than three earned runs.

          Although Estes doesn't throw particularly hard and doesn't miss many bats, he has displayed terrific control, sporting a 1.9 BB/9 rate while issuing just two free passes in his last five starts combined. Pitch-to-contact hurlers always carry added risk, and Estes has benefited from some batted-ball luck this season (.257 BABIP). That said, his ability to limit walks while pitching in the Oakland Coliseum, one of the game's most pitcher-friendly venues, certainly works in his favor.

          Estes is a solid streaming option Thursday against the Mariners, whose 90 wRC+ ranks 23rd in baseball over the last month, along with an MLB-worst 27.6% strikeout rate.

          What you may have missed on Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Lingering hip soreness finally landed Texas Rangers SS Corey Seager on the 10-day IL. Prior to the designation, Seager had played in only four of the previous seven games. It's not clear when (or if) Seager will return. Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran and Jonathan Ornelas should also garner an uptick in action while Seager is out.

          • The Chicago Cubs pitching staff is down a couple of key arms with SP Justin Steele and RP Jorge Lopez both placed on the IL yesterday. Steele was scratched from his last start with left elbow irritation which has now been diagnosed as tendinitis. It's unclear if he'll be able to return this season. Kyle Hendricks will likely fill in for Steele. Recently, Lopez has been dealing with a sore right groin. The club finally decided a visit to the IL is in order. Lopez had been sharing closing duties with Porter Hodge, so the news elevates Hodge to the primary closer.

          • Philadelphia Phillies 1B Bryce Harper was hit in the left elbow by a pitch in the first inning yesterday. He initially stayed in the contest but left for a pinch hitter in the top of the third frame. Harper may undergo imaging today, jeopardizing his availability for tonight's series opener against the Miami Marlins. It's also unclear if 1B/3B Alec Bohm will be able to return to the lineup tonight. Bohm has missed five straight games due to a sore hand.

          • Cleveland Guardians 1B Josh Naylor missed last night's game after exiting Tuesday's contest due to back spasms. Naylor is considered to be day-to-day. The club is off today but opens a road set with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday. Rookie Kyle Manzardo will likely fill in if Naylor remains absent.

          • The Atlanta Braves took the safe route and held 2B Whit Merrifield out of last night's contest, even though he cleared the league's concussion protocol after being hit in the head by a pitch on Tuesday.

          • New York Yankees C Austin Wells missed his second straight game after being hit in the hand by a pitch on Monday. X-rays came back clean, but manager Aaron Boone opted to go with backup C Jose Trevino. Wells is expected to return to the lineup on Friday -- the Yankees are off today. In other news, Boone indicated that RP Clay Holmes will not be the team's everyday closer. Boone will play matchups with Holmes, Jake Cousins, Luke Weaver and Tim Hill all in the mix.

          Everything else you need to know for Thursday

          • While Taj Bradley (23% rostered in ESPN leagues) ranks fairly high in today's rankings, caution is warranted. The 23-year-old right-hander has looked lost of late. Over his last six starts, he has been tagged for five-plus runs four times, resulting in a dismal 9.85 ERA during that stretch. Against a Minnesota Twins offense that sports a 108 wRC+ since the All-Star break, Bradley carries more risk than reward. My advice is to steer clear until he shows signs of turning things around.

          • Martin Perez (7% rostered) isn't a pitcher you can trust on a start-to-start basis, but he finds himself on the streaming radar Thursday with a matchup against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have been below average against lefties this season (92 wRC+) while fanning at an above-average rate (23%). Meanwhile, Perez has been respectable of late, giving up more than three earned runs just once in his last seven outings.

          • In terms of bats, take a look at Pittsburgh Pirates hitters, who are slated to match up against Washington's Jake Irvin on Thursday. Irvin owns a 6.55 ERA over his last 10 starts, and he's coming off one of his worst outings of the season, a performance in which the Chicago Cubs hammered him for seven earned runs in 4 2/3 frames. Oneil Cruz (52%), Andrew McCutchen (3%), Nick Gonzales (3%) and Rowdy Tellez (2%) are all in play here.

          • Lawrence Butler is the most added player in ESPN leagues during the past week, with his rostered percentage jumping by 28%. However, he's still available in nearly 60% leagues when he should be universally rostered. The 24-year-outfielder has been raking for the last two months, delivering a .325/.362/.696 slash line with 19 homers and nine steals since July 1. Lawrence has also been a top-10 fantasy outfielder on the Player Rater over the last 30 days. Scoop him up as the A's close out their series against the Mariners.

          • Betting tip of the day: Today, I'm taking under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130) for Texas Rangers SP Cody Bradford and his start against the Los Angeles Angels. He has held opponents under this total in four of his last five starts, while the Angels have the third-worst offense in baseball since the All-Star break, with a wRC+ of 86.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday