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          Fantasy baseball advice for Saturday: Go with Falter vs. struggling Mariners

          Bailey Falter is a solid streaming candidate against the scuffling Mariners offense. Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Five is the New Four

          So far this season, 34% of games started have come with four days of rest. There was a time well over half of all pitchers took the hill every fifth day.

          In the current landscape, 44% of games are started with five days of rest. Part of the reason is the off days added to the schedule a few years ago. Major league managers are also extending extra rest to monitor workloads or try to protect young arms. The two go together since the extra off days minimize the need for a sixth starter.

          The Los Angeles Dodgers treatment of Tyler Glasnow is the perfect example. Heading into Saturday's action, Glasnow has taken the hill 22 times, but just once with fewer than five days between outings.

          Glasnow has already set career highs in starts and innings as he has tossed 134 frames, 14 more than last season. He was scheduled to start today, but yesterday the Dodgers placed Glasnow on the 15-day IL with right elbow tendinitis, prompting the club to summon RHP Bobby Miller from Triple-A Oklahoma City.

          Miller made three starts to open the season, then spent around two months on the IP with right shoulder inflammation. When he returned, Miller struggled mightily over four outings before being demoted to Triple-A.

          Miller's woes continued on the farm. In three starts, he posted a 5.54 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Control was his biggest issue with 11 walks in only 13 innings. So far at the major league level this season, Miller issued 18 free passes in 29 frames, fanning just 27.

          Aside from command and control issues, Miller's velocity is down on his four-seam fastball and sinker. The caveat is they are still both well above average and could be effective if Miller could revert to throwing strikes.

          Miller will likely be deployed as a spot starter to keep the rest of the rotation on five days of rest. That said, the club has an off day during each of the ensuing three weeks, so today's outing could be a one-time thing as Yoshinobu Yamamoto could be back by the time the Dodgers need a sixth starter.

          On paper, today's matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals on the road is favorable, as demonstrated by the odds heavily tilted in the Dodgers direction. Since the break, the Cardinals offense facing right-handers has been well below average. However, trusting Miller for fantasy or betting purposes is a huge risk until he exhibits improved control and command.

          What you missed on Friday

          • The Minnesota Twins revealed that OF Byron Buxton received a cortisone injection for his hip injury. It was also reported that the issue stems from scar tissue related to a similar injury in 2022. The club remains optimistic that Buxton's IL stint will be minimal. In other news, SS Carlos Correa is still without a timetable for his return from plantar fasciitis, but he was able to run at full speed on Thursday.

          • Baltimore Orioles C Adley Rutschman was a late scratch from last night's AL East home matchup with the Boston Red Sox. Rutschman experienced lower back discomfort and was replaced by reserve C James McCann. Rutschman's availability for today's game is unclear. The early forecast for the evening in Camden Yards is worrisome with rain and thunderstorms anticipated in the area.

          • The conditions may influence whether Red Sox OF Tyler O'Neill is activated from the 10-day IL. O'Neill is slated to return tonight after missing time with a leg infection, but the club could opt to wait a day considering the wet field.

          • Houston Astros 3B Alex Bregman missed last night's game with right elbow inflammation. Bregman reportedly slept awkwardly, but imaging reveals no damage. He's expected to miss the rest of the weekend before hopefully returning Monday when the Astros host the Red Sox in the opener of a three-game set with playoff implications for both squads.

          • Pittsburgh Pirates SS Oneil Cruz was forced from last night's contest with an ankle issue. Cruz doubled in the seventh inning. After making an aggressive turn around second base, Cruz reversed direction and hurt his ankle. His status for today is unclear.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • Saturday's action gets underway at 1:05 p.m. ET in the Steel City with the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Seattle Mariners. Everyone in the Mariners' rotation can register a quality start whenever they take the mound. Their offense, on the other hand, is another story. The club was recently swept in a three-game series by the Detroit Tigers, being outscored 20-4, though 15 of those tallies game in the opening game. The struggles of the Mariners offense lands Pirates SP Bailey Falter (23% rostered in ESPN leagues) as a streaming option. Falter isn't dominant, but he boasts a below average walk rate and keeps the ball in the yard.

          • The slate's top-ranked streamer is Philadelphia Philles SP Cristopher Sanchez (32.3% rostered). Sanchez is mired in a second-half rut, having yielded at least six earned runs in two of his last three starts. Since the break, Sanchez has posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. He's only fanned 17 in those 28 stanzas, but he's issued just six free passes while allowing just two long balls in that span. A .379 BABIP has victimized Sanchez over this five-game span. Sanchez will face a Washington Nationals lineup that doesn't strike out much against southpaws, but they sport the sixth lowest wOBA versus lefties, so Sanchez has a chance to right the ship if he enjoys better batted ball fortune.

          • New York Mets SP Luis Severino (22.3% rostered) is in a good spot, lining up for a home date with the Miami Marlins. Severino is in a rut, but facing the offense with the fourth lowest wOBA versus right-handers is an ideal panacea. The Marlins also punch out at an above average clip.

          • San Francisco Giants SP Hayden Birdsong (6.9% rostered) is next among potential spot starters for his road date with the Oakland Athletics. Birdsong started his career with a 2.97 ERA over his first six efforts, but the mark has ballooned to 5.40 after a pair of struggles. Home runs were the culprit, which makes Saturday a risky proposition with the Athletics 10th highest home run rate facing righties. Even so, their wOBA versus right-handers is the 11th worst in the league, fueled by the third highest strikeout rate in this scenario.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge may be garnering more attention, but OF Juan Soto is also enjoying a productive season. It doesn't matter whether Soto is home or away, or if he's facing a lefty or righty. Soto's OPS is over 1.000 in all those scenarios. Today, Soto will face Detroit Tigers RHP Keider Montero. Montero has only fanned 44 in 54 2/3 innings and he's yielded 12 homers in that span. When Soto puts the ball in play, good things happen. I'm backing Soto and over 2.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Saturday