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          Fantasy baseball Friday lineup advice: Traded starters Kikuchi, Fedde to debut

          How will Erick Fedde fare in his first start with the St. Louis Cardinals? Getty Images
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Aug 2, 2024, 11:30 AM ET

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          A day of debuts

          Friday brings us four of the pitchers traded ahead of Tuesday's deadline making their debuts with their new teams. None has a high profile in fantasy baseball, but how should we view them both for their Friday matchups and going forward?

          Yusei Kikuchi, acquired by the Houston Astros at a steep prospect price tag, is the most prominent of the four names, in large part because of said trade return. The ex-Toronto Blue Jays left-hander was in a bit of a slump for his former team. He has a 6.87 ERA in his past 12 starts, as he was done in by a .380 BABIP, 63.7% left-on-base and 13.8% home run-per-fly ball rates, all of which are substantially worse than his career numbers in those categories (.344/70.6%/10.7%). Kikuchi also had 26.4% strikeout and 31.1% whiff rates during that 12-start span, which ranked in the 75th and 89th percentiles among pitchers who worked as many as his 57 2/3 innings.

          Considering those numbers as well as the Astros' frequency of extracting better-than-expected numbers from their pitchers, even in the post-Brent Strom era (he left the team following the 2021 season), Kikuchi should at least offer matchups value in fantasy (think top-50 starter cumulative value). On Friday, he'll face the Tampa Bay Rays, now a below-average-graded offense that's a good source of strikeouts for opposing starters. He's worth activating in most leagues for that matchup.

          The St. Louis Cardinals will toss Erick Fedde directly into the middle of their longtime rivalry with the Chicago Cubs, starting the right-hander at Wrigley Field. Thanks in large part to the addition of a sweeper, as well as better control than the last time we saw him in the States (in 2022), Fedde has been much more effective against right-handed batters. He has a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his nine starts since the beginning of June, and his 2.94 ERA in 15 starts against winning teams reflects the fact he's not a matchups-conscious starter.

          The Cubs are a middling matchup, so Fedde is a solid, albeit more deeper-mixed, fantasy option for Friday. That'll likely be his value going forward as well, though St. Louis was a good landing spot that could elevate him to top-50 positional value.

          Frankie Montas will make his Milwaukee Brewers debut at Washington's Nationals Park, against a bottom-five offense in the Nationals. He's pitching four days later than initially scheduled, however, and his 4.80 ERA in 26 career starts on six-plus days' rest -- and four quality starts in 15 tries with that much rest since the start of 2020 -- is a point of concern. Montas also has a 6.41 ERA in his past eight starts, making him more of an NL-only option than one for mixed and/or standard leagues. He might be best used as a matchups option going forward, especially having moved from one hitting-friendly home environment to another.

          The New York Mets added Paul Blackburn on Tuesday, and will start him on the road against the Los Angeles Angels three days later. He had made only his first start since returning from a stress reaction in his right foot, allowing four runs on five hits, two of them home runs, in five innings while facing precisely this same matchup. Blackburn's lengthy absence and shaky rehabilitation stint performance (eight earned runs in four innings across three appearances) make him a pitcher better left to the fantasy sidelines for evaluation. He'd most likely be a matchups type -- remember, the Mets' pitching-friendly home ballpark provides such advantages -- going forward.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          By Todd Zola

          • Los Angeles Angels OF Mike Trout is officially out for the season after tearing his left knee meniscus for the second time this year. Trout had been rehabbing from his first surgery when it was revealed he had suffered the injury again. Trout ends 2024 with a career-low 29 appearances, following a season in which he played just 82 times. Trout logged 119 games in 2022 but played in only 36 contests in 2021. Trout is expected to be healthy entering the 2025 season. It will be interesting to see the balance between trusting a player averaging 66.5 games played per season since 2021 and the fear of missing out in the event Trout at least matches 2022's playing time.

          • The Baltimore Orioles will once again dip into their treasure trove of prospects when they promote 3B Coby Mayo in advance of tonight's road date with the Cleveland Guardians. The club recalled 2B Jackson Holliday earlier in the week and now Mayo will join him, ostensibly filling the hot corner while Jordan Westburg is on the IL due to a broken hand. Mayo posted a .301/.375/.586 line for Triple-A Norfolk. It remains to be seen if the 22-year-old righty bat will play every day. With Jorge Mateo on the 60-day IL, Ramon Urias and Livan Soto are the Orioles' reserve infielders.

          • Tampa Bay Rays OF Richie Palacios is ticketed for a stint on the 10-day IL after being diagnosed with a hyperextended right knee. Jonny DeLuca is expected to play regularly while Palacios is on the shelf.

          • The Atlanta Braves announced that SP Reynaldo Lopez will miss his scheduled start tomorrow after experiencing forearm tightness during his previous outing. The club remains hopeful that Lopez won't require an IL stint, though that's still up in the air. The Braves have not named a starter for Saturday, although SP Max Fried is a candidate to take the spot.

          • The Guardians also needed to shuffle their weekend plans, with SP Tanner Bibee no longer slated to take the hill tomorrow. Bibee experienced shoulder discomfort following his effort last Monday night. Joey Cantillo will make his second career start tomorrow.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Underrated Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan draws fantasy baseball's dream matchup, a home start against the Chicago White Sox, a team against which he pitched quality starts in each of two prior meetings in 2024. For your projections purposes, bear in mind that the White Sox, post-trade deadline, grade as a 3% worse offensive team than the 29th-worst-ranked in the game (Miami Marlins). It's that dreamy a matchup going forward.

          • The Texas Rangers appear likely to start either Dane Dunning or Jose Urena, neither of whom has pitched effectively of late, and bear in mind that their 4.28 relief ERA behind those two ranks just 24th in the majors. That tilts things sharply in favor of the Boston Red Sox offense, one of the day's best stacks. Nos. 2 and 3 hitters and left-handers Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida are well worth the add and start, considering their .285/.347/.537 and .318/.387/.424 rates against right-handers.

          • The Baltimore Orioles are another offense to draw from, facing hittable Cleveland Guardians right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who has allowed 12 earned runs in his past two starts and has a 6.16 ERA in his past 10 turns. Orioles leadoff man Colton Cowser, 8-for-22 (.364 BA) with two home runs in five games since his installation into the role and a .380/.429/.660 hitter in 13 games since the All-Star break, remains available in more than 70% of leagues and is well worth the add and start.

          • Betting tip of the day: Expect much excitement around the aforementioned Orioles, especially with prospect Coby Mayo on his way to join the team to likely take over as the starting third baseman beginning on Friday. The projections give the Orioles a 53% chance at winning, despite it being a road game, making the Orioles (-125) on the moneyline a strong play. Additionally, with their hitters matching up well, both Cowser (+180) and Adley Rutschman (+165) to record at least two hits, each buoyed by their high-in-the-order lineup positioning, are wagers worth consideration.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday