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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games

          Shane Baz will make his return to the mound on Friday after missing all of 2023 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. AP Photo/Nick Wass
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJul 5, 2024, 11:33 AM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Baz is Back in Town

          Earlier this week, the Tampa Bay Rays traded SP Aaron Civale to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for 20-year-old shortstop Gregory Barrios. Civale's spot in the rotation will be filled by SP Shane Baz.

          Baz had Tommy John surgery in September 2022. He didn't pitch at all in 2023. Baz began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham in early May. Once the rehab expired, the Rays opted to leave Baz with the Bulls. He made 10 starts, throwing 39 1/3 innings with a 4.12 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. However, over his last four outings, Baz posted a 1.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 31 strikeouts in 19 innings.

          Trading Civale was not necessarily a sign the Rays are throwing in the towel this season. They're currently sixth in the race for the three AL Wild Card spots, five games behind the Royals for the final berth. A lot must go right for the Rays to return to the playoffs, but they're within striking distance. On the other hand, the Rays may continue to move starting pitching, with Zach Eflin, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot potentially on the block.

          Playoff aspirations aside, Baz will likely have his workload tempered over the second half. There are around 13 weeks left in the season. One start a week would add 65-75 innings to Baz's ledger, leaving him with 110, plus or minus a handful. This seems reasonable and sets Baz up to pitch next season with no restrictions.

          The typical pattern during recovery from Tommy John surgery is velocity returns relatively quickly, but command and control may lag. When Baz embarked on his rehab, his velocity was down a couple of ticks while his command and control was poor. However, his velocity ticked up lately, and he's walked a palatable eight in 19 innings, without yielding a home run.

          Currently, Baz is rostered in only 12.1% of ESPN leagues. It may swell a bit now that he's back, but he'll likely be in the streaming bucket for the second half. His Friday start in Arlington isn't an ideal spot for his 2024 MLB debut, but the Rangers offense has scored the 10th fewest runs in MLB since June 1. The catch is they don't strike out much, and since Baz likely won't pitch past the fifth inning, his fantasy production will be tempered.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          • The Houston Astros have surged to within two games of the first place Seattle Mariners, and they've done it without two key components, as OF Kyle Tucker and SP Justin Verlander remain sidelined. Yesterday, the club reported that they'll be without both of their services at least through the All-Star break. Tucker has been nursing a deep bone bruise after fouling a ball off his shin on June 3. Verlander has been out with a sore neck. He's able to play catch but hasn't done any mound work since being placed on the IL back on June 18.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers OF Jason Heyward left last night's contest early after hurting his left knee while leaping to try to make a catch. He's slated for an MRI today. Miguel Vargas replaced him and would be the likely beneficiary if Heyward misses more action. Before the game, manager Dave Roberts provided updates on some of the club's other injured players. Max Muncy is eligible to be activated during the break but won't be ready until August. On a positive note, Clayton Kershaw threw a 30-pitch bullpen session. The next step is a simulated game, followed by a rehab assignment. There's a chance Kershaw makes his 2024 debut with the Dodgers before the end of the month. Lastly, Roberts indicated that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is making progress, hopefully resuming throwing before the break. He's still expected to return in early-to-mid August.

          • Atlanta Braves SS Orlando Arcia's availability for this weekend's home set against the Philadelphia Phillies is in jeopardy. Arcia is nursing an infection resulting from the pulling of an abscessed tooth. Arcia hasn't played since June 30, so if he doesn't show improvement, he could be placed on the 10-day IL with INF Zack Short continuing to fill in.

          • San Francisco Giants OF Mike Yastrzemski had to leave last night's game after being hit by a pitch in the elbow. X-rays were negative. Yastrzemski is considered to be day-to-day after being diagnosed with a contusion.

          • Colorado Rockies OF Brenton Doyle missed last night's game due to calf tightness. He had fouled a ball off his calf during Wednesday night's tilt. Doyle is known for his defensive prowess, but the Milwaukee Brewers saw another side of him in the first three games of the series. Doyle was 7-for-11 with three homers and three doubles before being forced to the bench yesterday. His availability for this weekend's visit from the Kansas City Royals is unclear.

          • Los Angeles Angels 2B Luis Rengifo missed yesterday's matchup with the Oakland Athletics despite clean X-rays on his right wrist. Rengifo got hurt on Wednesday night while taking a swing. He's slated for an MRI today.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • After a holiday slate featuring mostly matinees, the only Friday afternoon game is the standard Wrigley Field affair when the Chicago Cubs are home for the weekend. Shockingly, Cubs SP Justin Steele will be looking for his first win this season as he's 0-3 in 12 outings, despite a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 70 1/3 innings. Steele will be opposed by Los Angeles Angels SP Griffin Canning. Canning is in a rut, posting a 4.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his last four starts, with only 16 punchouts in 24 frames.

          • The top-ranked streaming candidate is Detroit Tigers SP Reese Olson (17.6% rostered in ESPN leagues). The Tigers have a three-game set facing the Cincinnati Reds in the Great American Ballpark. The road affair renders a significant park downgrade for Olson, though even at home, the Reds sport a below average offense with an above average strikeout rate. Olson has posted three consecutive quality starts, with a sparkling 1.96 ERA and ,87 WHIP over those 18 1/3 stanzas, supported by 20 strikeouts with only three free passes.

          • Ranked just below Olson is Baltimore Orioles SP Albert Suarez (4.2% rostered). The Orioles start a weekend series out west against the Oakland Athletics. Suarez's ranking is more about the matchup than his ability, though he's coming off his best effort of the season where he blanked the Texas Rangers over six stanzas, albeit with only two strikeouts. Still, facing the offense averaging the second fewest runs per game at home since June 1 merits consideration.

          • Next up is Chicago White Sox rookie SP Drew Thorpe (5.8% rostered). This is another option fueled by the matchup with the White Sox spending the weekend in South Beach. To be fair, Thorpe has recorded consecutive quality starts, but he rung up only nine batters while walking five over those dozen frames. However, the Miami Marlins have scored the fewest runs per game in the league over the last month.

          • New York Mets SP Luis Severino registered a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in June. He tossed at least six innings in each outing. In three, he yielded one or fewer runs, but he gave up 10 total runs in the other pair. Over the entire month, Severino only fanned 20 in 33 1/3 innings, and that includes a 10-strikeout gem in Wrigley Field two starts ago. On Friday, Severino is in a good spot to rack up some strikeouts in the Steel City. The Pittsburgh Pirates are the opposition and have fanned the fourth most in the league facing right-handed pitching.

          • Betting tip of the day: Chicago White Sox rookie Drew Thorpe, pushed back by a day in the rotation to grant him extra rest, has pitched well in his last two outings, both of which were quality starts with pitch counts of 94 and 88. He has performed well particularly against weaker offenses, and now faces the lowly Miami Marlins at one of the game's best pitchers' parks. The projections heavily favor the White Sox in this one, so take Chicago to win (even) and Thorpe OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+115).

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday