Perhaps the majority of Jordan Romano's fantasy managers paid little attention when the Toronto Blue Jays closer threw only five pitches in the mid-July All-Star game, only to be abruptly removed due to lower back tightness. It should have worried fantasy managers. Romano took a few days off from throwing, then returned to the mound to save a few wins, but ultimately, an IL stint beckoned this past weekend.
The Blue Jays claim they were merely being cautious and Romano, among the league leaders with 28 saves, may return to active duty when first eligible on August 13. Perhaps this is all true and this is no big deal, but back problems tend to be particularly worrisome, and the Blue Jays just happened to trade for St. Louis Cardinals RHP Jordan Hicks, seemingly in conjunction with the IL move, even as the team says the moves are not related.
Still, it is hard to not notice Romano's name near the top of the most-dropped pitchers list in ESPN standard leagues. Those who did so may regret it, because we not only assume Romano returns to full health soon, but that he also returns to the closer role. Romano boasts 87 saves over the last three seasons, with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over that span to go along with his 11.1 K/9. Teams tend to be loyal, and Romano -- when healthy -- is better than Hicks.
Hicks is among the hardest throwers in the sport, averaging better than 100 mph with his fastball, which he throws more than 70% of the time, but he also lacks command of it far too often. Hicks has been better in controlling walks recently, but surprisingly hittable, too. Add it all up and Hicks has a 1.51 WHIP. He may not be Toronto's top setup man. RHP Erik Swanson leads the majors with 26 holds, while LHP Tim Mayza is solid. RHP Yimi Garcia is second to Romano with three saves. Hicks may be primarily the seventh-inning option.
Ultimately, there is some lack of clarity here and it does not add up that Romano is among the top-10 relief pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater (and the only one among the top 30 who is currently injured) while also being among the top names being dropped in ESPN leagues. Even in points formats, try to be a bit patient and keep Romano around. Resist the lure of Hicks, though it is possible there is some short-term value here. We shall see.
Stock rising
Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners: The surprising trade of RHP Paul Sewald to Arizona finally opens the door for Munoz, who regularly hits 100 mph with his fastball, to inherit the closing role. Munoz has struggled a bit lately, permitting a run in three of his last seven appearances -- and with nearly as many walks as whiffs in that span. Still, he likely has saves in his future, although RHP Matt Brash is steaming ahead to 100 strikeouts, and may get a chance as well.
Carlos Hernandez, Kansas City Royals: Scott Barlow pitched quite poorly over the past two months and now he is on the Padres, leaving Hernandez in prime position to handle ninth-inning duties in Missouri. Hernandez, 26, was terrible last season (7.39 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) but he is thriving now in a pure relief role, his fastball up to 99 mph. Plus, he's dominating left-handed hitters. See his .165 BAA for proof. Hernandez is a top-five reliever on the 30-day Player Rater and, since he saved Sunday's win, he is probably first up for saves.
Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals: Ordinary LHP JoJo Romero saved Sunday's win after the Hicks trade, with Gallegos pitching two setup innings, but these roles figure to reverse soon. Gallegos had a great June, permitting only one run in 13 1/3 innings (0.68 ERA) and he should get to double-digit saves for the third consecutive season. This is an underrated fantasy option year after year.
Gregory Santos, Chicago White Sox: It's certainly possible that RHP Liam Hendriks returns from his IL stint (elbow inflammation) soon and returns to closing, but the White Sox sold at the trade deadline and Hendriks may not be part of their future. Santos, 23, probably is. He saved a weekend win and boasts typical closer "stuff," averaging 99 mph with his fastball, while also generating a 53% ground-ball rate.
Stock falling
Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles: It's not the first time Cano, so dominant early in the season and worthy of All-Star inclusion, earned his way onto this rougher side of the stock watch. Cano is not among the top-75 relief pitchers on the 30-day Player Rater, as he had a 4.91 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in July. His strikeout rate has been down for months. Fantasy managers should stop looking at April numbers that happened long before August. Cano has a sad 1.61 WHIP since the start of June and his last save came all the way back in May.
Adam Ottavino, New York Mets: Most fantasy managers presumed Ottavino, with six saves at the time closer David Robertson was dealt to the Marlins, would take over the ninth inning. Then LHP Brooks Raley saved two wins in the weekend series against the Nationals before blowing Tuesday's lead. It doesn't mean this is definitively the hierarchy moving forward, but the Mets also traded players at the deadline and found a hilarious way to lose on Tuesday, so there should be less opportunities to save.