New York Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole sure looked like a future ace when he pitched for UCLA, boasting an electric fastball and starting pitcher build, making it easy for eager fantasy baseball managers to invest. The No. 1 pick in the 2011 amateur draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cole debuted in his age-22 season and was an instant hit, he has been a top-10 fantasy starter for three franchises and shows no signs of letting up. Cole started the All-Star game for the American League on Tuesday night in Seattle.
Fantasy managers are always looking for potential aces in the Cole mold, whether in redraft or dynasty leagues and in points or roto formats, and LSU star RHP Paul Skenes sure looks like a guaranteed, prototypical, future ace in the Cole mold. The Pirates chose him with the first pick in this week's draft and while there are plenty of potential impact hitters for fantasy managers to dream about, Skenes is the one we all should want. He dominated in the SEC and the College World Series, and should move quickly through the minor leagues. Perhaps he debuts in 2024.
Baseball's amateur draft is nothing like what we see in football and basketball. These are vastly different sports, with far more volatility in the early selections, and most fantasy baseball managers - even in dynasty/keeper formats - probably pay little attention. Perhaps they feel there is little need to do so, as for most of the drafted players, it will be years before they impact fantasy. In football and basketball, this is hardly the case. There is immediate opportunity and statistics.
While Cole, Washington Nationals RHP Stephen Strasburg (2009) and Tampa Bay Devil Rays LHP David Price (2007) produced big numbers for their teams and fantasy managers, myriad other No. 1 overall starting pitchers did not. We still hope for big things from Detroit Tigers RHP Casey Mize (2018). Houston Astros RHP Mark Appel (2013) did not win a big-league game. Pirates RHP Bryan Bullington (2002) won only once. Kansas City Royals RHP Luke Hochevar (2006) was hardly an ace. Most everyone believes Skenes will succeed.
Perhaps the Pirates meaningfully debated Skenes versus the top hitters with the top pick, but regardless of need in your fantasy baseball dynasty league, Skenes should be the one you covet. Sure, this goes against conventional wisdom in this space, as we often preach how much safer hitters are versus pitchers. Human bodies were not meant to throw projectiles such as baseballs as hard and often as they do. Injuries are not only common, but somewhat expected. We hope Skenes is on the Cole path. It could be the Mize path. Who really knows?
Regardless, for those of us who followed along as Skenes dominated throughout his magical LSU season, toying with hitters with his fastball/slider combination, listen to the scouts and prospect writers. Skenes sure feels different and special, someone who cannot miss. Thus, do not miss in a dynasty/keeper format, should one get the opportunity. As for 2024 redraft formats, we will follow the news this winter, but we may have to consider him late in drafts. Yeah, he could be that special.
Other draft thoughts
Patience, fantasy managers. Nationals OF Dylan Crews and Texas Rangers OF Wyatt Langford went second and fourth in the draft, respectively, and they were regarded as legitimate No. 1 options. They are outstanding hitters who should move quickly through the minors as well. Still, even with college hitters, there are few guarantees. We need to see them perform in the minors with wood bats, see if their plate discipline translates, etc. Crews is the preferred pick for fantasy, too. An advanced hitter with enough speed to steal bases at a relevant fantasy level, he profiles as a potential five-category fantasy choice. One thing a fantasy manager should never do is look at the current depth chart for big-league teams and wonder how new players may fit in. If they perform, they will fit in, and young players change positions all the time, too. Being drafted as a shortstop hardly means someone stays there.
Do not simply disregard high school hitters just because they are further away from the majors, because they often offer more statistical upside than college options, but here's that word again: patience. Another word is risk. Tigers OF Max Clark might be a superstar, but he is a teenager. His is a pretty left-handed swing - why do they never say that about right-handed swings? - and there is ample power and speed to dream about, but alas, it will be several years. Dynasty managers bereft of patience and trying to win now often overlook the option of investing in someone like Clark and then trading him for immediate impact. That works, too.
Rather than go through each first-round pick, there are certain players that intrigue more than others. Baltimore Orioles OF Enrique Bradfield Jr., the No. 17 pick from Vanderbilt, is already an elite center fielder and speed demon, a future stolen base champion. This is not hyperbole. Whether Bradfield can hit enough to warrant a smooth and quick rise to the big leagues and hit atop a lineup is another matter, but this is a skill set to watch. The Orioles are loaded with hitting prospects, but again, if when Bradfield is ready, we will know it. His draft spot in the middle of the first round may indicate moribund value, but this may not be the case for fantasy, notably in roto formats.
Fair or not, give some extra attention to what appear to be the better directed franchises when it comes to handling young players. Call it subjective and I will not argue, but we all have bias. The Atlanta Braves chose Florida RHP Hurston Waldrep at No. 24. We saw his ridiculous splitter in the CWS, and if his new organization can help develop his other pitches and coax him to throw more strikes, then this is a name to remember. Waldrep could lead a rotation or end up closing in a bullpen, so there is some role risk and fantasy managers should never chase saves for prospects, but let's just say where he landed matters. Give more attention to those chosen by the Rays, Dodgers and Yankees organizations, too.