Spring training games are just about ready to get going, which also means that the 2023 regular season is not all that far off. As such, it is time to get a little bit bold when it comes to fantasy baseball!
Bold predictions, by their occasional wild nature, are not likely to hit, but they can be fun, and there usually is some foundation for the logic. Perhaps it would have seemed ridiculous a season ago to project 62 home runs for Aaron Judge or a 1.75 ERA for Justin Verlander, but both of these things happened, and we certainly had clues these players were skilled enough to make history.
Who will it be this season? Let's get bold in fantasy baseball, starting with the American League. (You can find our National League opinions here.) Again, to be clear, most, if not all, of these predictions are not going to happen. Still, perhaps I'm on the right track with some of them -- and that might be just as important as we get ready for our fantasy baseball drafts.
Baltimore Orioles: C Adley Rutschman finishes as the top catcher in points leagues. He's already going fourth at catcher in NFBC ADP and, with his impressive walk/strikeout rates from his rookie campaign and a likely No. 2 lineup slot again, his future is clearly bright. ... 3B Gunnar Henderson out-steals Jorge Mateo 15-14. It's not that I think Henderson (who is awesome!) will run so much, but Mateo and his .267 OBP from last season may not/should not play so much. Be wary of investing, even if you need stolen bases. Henderson starts 150 games at SS.
Boston Red Sox: OF Adam Duvall slugs 30 home runs. Hey, he's done it three times before, and he's got the starting CF job. Duvall may again slug more homers than walks drawn, but this is relevant, late-round power -- and both the Red Sox and fantasy managers need it. ... RHP Garrett Whitlock is Boston's top fantasy hurler. That doesn't mean he'll be an ace, but I like him, and it's hard to be optimistic about Chris Sale (11 starts over the past three years). Whitlock posted a 4.15 ERA as a starter last year, with a strong strikeout rate. Take a chance on him as your last starter.
Chicago White Sox: 1B Andrew Vaughn over former 1B Jose Abreu in fantasy? There is a 40-pick difference in NFBC ADP, but that's not much. Vaughn finally gets to play first base and will emerge as the star everyone expected. Nothing against Abreu, 36 and now an Astro, but Vaughn hits .280 with 25 HR and 80 RBIs. Will Abreu? ... OF Oscar Colas swats 27 home runs. Colas should win the team's RF job out of spring training, showing off big left-handed power, which is a glaring team need. He'll assume the No. 5 lineup spot, too, right between Eloy Jimenez and Vaughn.
Cleveland Guardians: OF Oscar Gonzalez also swats 27 home runs and hits .270. Some view Gonzalez as the new Franmil Reyes, but he is better. Gonzalez, also a right-handed hitter, hit .308 off right-handed pitching as a rookie. There's upside here. ... OF Steven Kwan leads the majors in runs scored. The rookie Kwan scored 50 runs over 69 games after the All-Star break. He gets on base and should steal more than 25 bases, too. Watch him score 115 runs.
Detroit Tigers: OF Kerry Carpenter leads the team with 26 home runs. No Tiger reached 20 home runs last season, but six will do so in 2023. Carpenter is the sleeper who mashed 36 total home runs a season ago, including six in the majors. ... OF Riley Greene hits .275 with 20 home runs. Greene's rookie season was a bit of a struggle, but a star lurks. Ignore that he was 1-for-5 on stolen base attempts. He steals 12 bases this season. Watch where he hits in the order. If it is leadoff, he runs more.
Houston Astros: SS Jeremy Pena hits 30 home runs. Pena had a rough second half of his rookie season and plate discipline is an issue, but the skills are there. I boldly predicted Pena (22 HR, 63 RBI, 72 R, 4.8 WAR) would outshine former Astros SS Carlos Correa (22 HR, 64 RBI, 70 R, 5.4 WAR) last year. And I was really close! ... RHP Hunter Brown becomes the team's No. 3 starter, winning 12 games with 175 strikeouts. Brown moved quickly through Houston's system, piling on ground balls and strikeouts. He's better than either Luis Garcia or Jose Urquidy.
Kansas City Royals: Both Royals catchers hit 30 home runs and end up in the top 10 at the position on the ESPN Player Rater. Salvador Perez has done it before. It's time for C/OF MJ Melendez to join him. Melendez is an excellent draft day value. ... 1B Nick Pratto hits .245 with 24 home runs. Everyone loves starting 1B Vinnie Pasquantino -- and for good reason -- but everyone seems to be giving up on Pratto too early.
Los Angeles Angels: Everyone in the lineup hits 20-plus home runs, including 3B Anthony Rendon, C Logan O'Hoppe and 2B/3B Luis Rengifo, who handles SS duties until prospect Zach Neto emerges. This is an underrated lineup and, finally, a playoff team. ... LHP Tyler Anderson wins 15 games again. Yeah, he achieved this with the other, better Los Angeles team last season, but few expect anything resembling a repeat. Oh, his ERA jumps to 3.50, but he'll give the team stability and good innings.
Minnesota Twins: OFs Joey Gallo and Matt Wallner each blast 25 home runs, but only Wallner hits his own weight. The Gallo signing by Minnesota was odd. Wallner hit 27 home runs in the minors last season and can be better. ... There's not much talk about saves in bold predictions and we will predict each team's saves leader in a later column, but you should get RHP Jhoan Duran if you can. He's going to save 30-plus games.
New York Yankees: Bet on the Oswalds! SS Oswald Peraza holds off prospect Anthony Volpe all year with a 15-HR, 20-SB season. You'll want him over 2B Gleyber Torres and 1B/2B/3B DJ LeMahieu, too. OF Oswaldo Cabrera is also legit. The team's regular left fielder hits .265 with 24 HR. ... RHP Luis Severino makes 30 starts and achieves a better ERA and WHIP than Gerrit Cole. That's right. The last time Severino made 30 starts was back in 2018. We always note he should pitch well when he pitches. Cole's ERA rises for the fourth consecutive season, this time to 3.70.
Oakland Athletics: OF Esteury Ruiz steals 50 bases. Ruiz hit .332 and stole an incredible 85 bases over 114 minor-league games last season, but neither the Padres nor the Brewers had room for him. The A's certainly do! Ruiz should play regularly and run whenever he wants! ... RHP Drew Rucinski is the team's All-Star representative. A former MLB reliever who has thrived as a starter in Korea over the past few seasons, Rucinski returns to lead the staff. How about 12 wins and a 3.95 ERA?
Seattle Mariners: C Cal Raleigh swats 35 home runs. "Big Dumper" surprised in his first full season, and he's capable of even more. Raleigh edges Perez for MLB's catcher HR crown. ... RHP George Kirby leads Mariners starters with a 2.88 ERA. In fact, three Mariners starters (Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert) finish with sub-3.00 ERAs. Kirby is the youngest.
Tampa Bay Rays: OF Jose Siri delivers a 20-20 season. Siri isn't much of a walker, but he's full of power/speed possibility and can defend in center field. We'd all still take his teammate Randy Arozarena, of course, but their numbers may look more similar than most realize. The Rays know what they are doing. ... RHP Tyler Glasnow wins 17 games. First of all, Glasnow has never even started 17 times in a big league season, so that's bold already. Did you know that no Rays right-handed pitcher has ever won more than 16 games in a season? Glasnow has electric stuff. It's time for him to stay on the field and win.
Texas Rangers: 3B Josh Jung hits .275 with 25 home runs. Ignore his 2022 numbers over 102 PA, as he was returning from shoulder surgery. This small sample size should not erase all the prospect love. This fellow will hit. ... RHP Jon Gray finally blossoms into a top-30 starter with 14 wins, 180 K and 3.25 ERA. Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft touted Gray as a breakout candidate, and I concur.
Toronto Blue Jays: 1B Brandon Belt (and five other Jays) hits 30 home runs. Belt hit 29 home runs in 97 games for the 2021 Giants, and he'll love both his new role (DH) and new home ballpark. What a perfect fit and an underrated late-round fantasy option. ... RHP Jose Berrios strikes out 200 hitters for the third time. Sure, Berrios struggled last season, as no qualified pitcher had a worse ERA and WHIP, but we should rely on track record. His stuff was there, and he was a bit unlucky. Let's go with a 3.75 ERA, too.