Many fantasy baseball managers want to invest solely in the best prospects, big-name fellows everyone knows about and covets, the ones with the low numbers in the highly influential prospect rankings. There is no shortage of high-end prospects for fantasy managers to dream about. Everyone wants potential superstars on their fantasy rosters.
Chicago Cubs 1B Matt Mervis is certainly not one of baseball's top prospects. He's 24, undrafted and confined to first base, but here's where prospect analysts and fantasy managers often deviate, or at least they should: it's about production and opportunity for immediate stats. Mervis was a run producer this past season and the MVP of last weekend's Future Stars game may see significant opportunity in 2023.
Mervis sure seems to be enjoying himself in the Arizona Fall League. He was leading the league in home runs when we saw him rip his sixth blast in a game Friday afternoon, and then he elicited oohs and aahs in the league's first Home Run Derby on Saturday night. Mervis didn't win the derby, but his power was evident. Then the lefty hitter slugged a two-run homer to left center field on Sunday off Tampa Bay Rays submarining RHP Antonio Menendez in a six-run fifth inning to help lead the National League team to a 9-3 win.
Fantasy managers may know many of the 2023 top prospects, and hope they follow the path of Seattle Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez into stardom. Some of the top hitters have been on display in Arizona, including St. Louis Cardinals OF Jordan Walker, San Diego Padres SS Jackson Merrill, New York Yankees OF Jasson Dominguez and myriad others. First basemen are rarely viewed as top prospects, but Mervis certainly has a shot to play in 2023, though there are questions if he can hit big league pitching, especially left-handers and off-speed pitches.
Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft and I attended and contributed at First Pitch Arizona, an excellent fantasy baseball symposium presented by our friends from BaseballHQ.com. It wasn't our first visit, but our first since 2019, and we recommend the experience. Prospect analysts attend and honestly discuss positives and negatives of players, and we discuss industry trends, lessons learned, draft teams and enjoy each other's company while watching live baseball. I learn quite a bit.
I admit I was intrigued this past summer by Mervis, who pitched and slugged at Duke, but went undrafted in 2020 and ended up joining the Cubs organization. After all, he hit 36 home runs across three minor league levels in 2022 and led the minors in RBIs, extra-base hits and total bases, all with a low strikeout rate. This alone doesn't make him a top prospect, but someone worth learning about.
The Cubs may give Mervis a realistic chance to make the team come Spring Training, likely moving on from their underachieving 2022 options Frank Schwindel (we'll remember 2021 forever!) and Alfonso Rivas. Neither managed a .650 OPS. Mervis had a .984 OPS, but again, hitting in the minors and at the Arizona Fall League can often trick even the savviest of fantasy managers. Nobody is saying Mervis is a high fantasy pick in 2023, but in the middle rounds, when we're considering corner options such as Josh Bell, Josh Naylor, Rowdy Tellez and Joey Meneses, thinking about Mervis and the potential for power makes sense, too.
Other thoughts on prospects I saw
I wanted to get a good look at sweet-swinging Baltimore Orioles OF Heston Kjerstad, the No. 2 pick in the 2020 first round who missed the 2021 season with myocarditis, going more than two full years between at-bats. Kjerstad singled, doubled and tripled in my first look at him in Friday's game, hitting everything hard and to the opposite field with an upper-cut swing. He shined in the Home Run Derby Saturday, losing in the final to Seattle Mariners 1B prospect Robert Perez Jr., but after hitting only five home runs in 65 games in the minors, he showed he can hit baseballs far. Then Kjerstad hit third for the AL team Sunday and contributed an RBI single and a walk. Scouts remain concerned about him hitting for power, and whether he needs to be platooned, but pay attention to his 2023 work in Double-A.
Jasson Dominguez slapped an RBI double to center field in the All-Star game, but there were several rough at-bats when he looked overmatched during the weekend. Dominguez, surrounded by massive hype when he signed three years ago, is still only 19! He seems susceptible to off-speed stuff and dropped a simple fly ball in center field, but again, he's 19. He's a muscular, switch-hitter with tantalizing power and speed, though we may not see him in the majors until 2024. He may be great, but with the hype, I doubt I'll reach to invest.
Jackson Merrill is also just 19 and didn't do much at the plate this weekend, though it also probably means little. He hits left-handed and makes good contact, but in Friday's game he settled for hitting several slow ground balls to the right side of the infield, though he drew a walk versus a lefty. Merrill probably needs to steal bases in Double-A this upcoming season to keep us interested, because he doesn't possess big power. The fact that the Padres moved several prospects this season opens the door for Merrill to play in 2024.
Colorado Rockies OF Zac Veen leads the AFL in stolen bases, and he swiped the only base in the Fall Stars game. Tall, thin and batting left-handed, Veen gave me a Christian Yelich vibe from his early Marlins years, when we begged him to stop hitting so many ground balls. Veen appears to have more speed, though he was merely 5-for-10 on stolen base attempts with Double-A Hartford over 34 games this past season, after swiping 50 bags in 54 chances at High-A. Even if he shows modest power, there's a path to Veen mattering in fantasy in 2023.
Los Angeles Dodgers OF Andy Pages looked like an all-or-nothing slugger in the past two minor league seasons, and that was the vibe from the weekend as well. He was susceptible to off-speed stuff, he hit fastballs hard, and he's all about the launch angle. Still, he mashed 57 home runs the past two seasons and should debut for the Dodgers in 2023. Watch to see if they sign a free-agent outfielder. If they don't, that may be telling.
Boston Red Sox 2B Nick Yorke got a Ty France comp from a prospect analyst, based on his hitting skill from the right side of the plate and his ability to at least stand at second base, which certainly earned my attention. Yorke struggled at High-A this past season, though there remains five-category upside. He doubled and hit a pair of singles Friday, and he made several excellent defensive plays. Some people are down on Yorke, but I remain intrigued.
Jordan Walker whacked a two-run, opposite-field double off the right field wall just before the Mervis home run Saturday, and while it was his only hit in five at-bats, he hit several balls hard the other way. Walker is a third baseman, but the Cardinals have one of those (Nolan Arenado). Look for him to debut in a Cardinals' corner outfield spot sometime in 2023 and hit for intriguing power to all fields, with top exit velocity, albeit with a low batting average. The Aaron Judge of the NL? Well, c'mon, but Walker may be one of the top prospects in 2023 drafts.
It really was a fun weekend, even though the Arizona temperatures during the day and especially at night were hardly kind. The NL won Saturday's game easily and didn't need to hit in the bottom of the ninth, but they did anyway, perhaps for television purposes, much to the delight of the many fans. Walker faced his friend and Cardinals teammate RHP Tink Hence, as the AL needed several arms from the NL to finish. Walker ripped another shot to deep right field, caught by a leaping Kjerstad at the wall. Then Walker and Hence laughed and hugged about their impromptu meeting, and their teammates celebrated as well.