It's easy for a fantasy baseball manager to love Freddie Freeman's move to the Los Angeles Dodgers, because if you look at the Dodgers lineup -- now with the five-time All-Star, three-time Silver Slugger and 2020 National League MVP in it -- it certainly looks just like a fantasy lineup.
Nabbing Freeman is a coup for the Dodgers, dropping what (in this writer's opinion) is the game's most consistent, most durable, highest-floor hitter into what was already a loaded lineup. Consider that the 2019 (16th, 5.47) and 2020 Dodgers (third, 5.82) occupy two of the top 16 spots in terms of average runs per game in the 16 seasons since the widely accepted conclusion of the steroid era (2005), and the 2021 team ranked fourth in the majors with a 5.12 runs-per-game average, in what was regarded as a disappointing offensive season.
There's little question that the 2022 Dodgers need be projected for baseball's largest run total -- and it might be by a wide margin. The Toronto Blue Jays, who similarly have retooled their lineup to attempt a repeat of their third-ranked 5.22 runs per game, could give them a push for top honors, but what matters is that these are two lineups that will provide optimized opportunities for runs scored, RBI and times through the lineup (read: plate appearances) -- something that is often overlooked among fantasy managers, but paramount to success, especially in those "only" leagues.
The impact on Freeman
For Freeman, what isn't there to say? He has had five seasons of a .300-plus batting average in the past six years, most in the majors. He was the league leader with a .313 Statcast expected batting average in 2021. He is baseball's only player with at least 10% walk and 40% Statcast hard-hit rates and a sub-20% strikeout rate in each of the last five seasons. Freeman has only improved his contact-hitting approach in recent years and he was already an awfully good hitter at the time of his more "swing and miss" oriented breakthrough in 2016.
Freeman is also one of the game's better all-field power hitters, having hit 33-of-133 home runs to the opposite field over the last five seasons, tied for sixth-most in baseball (and third among lefties). That's the kind of approach that minimizes any major park-factor influences on his hitting numbers, but what you might not realize is that Dodger Stadium is actually one of the better power venues in the game, having been at least 5% above-average in the category in each of the last four seasons.
Consider his new home to be an upgrade for Freeman's power, and even if landing in the Dodgers lineup means only as many as five additional runs and RBI, he'll gain -- at the very least -- incremental fantasy value for 2022. Oh, by the way, he was already the No. 26 overall and No. 3 first baseman on the 2021 Player Rater, and scored the 14th-most total fantasy points (489), so he was already quite good.
Freeman is now my No. 11 points-league player overall, up from 18th as a free agent, and it's an easy case to make that he's a top-eight overall pick if you take the optimist's side. Similar to Bryce Harper (No. 12), Freeman is a "high return on investment" selection, and there's a strong argument to be made for having that kind of player as your first-round pick.
The impact on the rest of the lineup
Understand that this is a team that loves to mix-and-match nightly based upon the opposing pitcher, especially hitting handedness, so let's get this out of the way first: Freeman missed a mere four out of 545 Atlanta Braves games since the beginning of 2018, plus he played all but five innings of their postseason contests over that time, so he's not going to sit any more often than a traditional big-league regular would. Maybe he plays in 155 rather than 159 games, but that will scarcely impact his fantasy production. He'll be the first baseman, perhaps getting a few DH appearances, but the reintroduction of the designated hitter throughout the NL solves some roster-clutter problems for Los Angeles.
It's not really "clutter," anyway. This is a bit of a "dream team"-type offense, and putting aside Freeman, the catchers and third baseman Justin Turner, the other six on-field regulars are all plenty capable of playing at least two defensive positions, which is exactly the flexibility the Dodgers want. The news on Max Muncy over the past week has been promising, as he played first base during a simulated game on Tuesday, and he'll probably DH initially before moving to second base early in the season once he's 100%. Chris Taylor can shuffle all over the diamond. Cody Bellinger could take over first base on Freeman's off-days (or the "mini-rests: where he DH's) and Mookie Betts can play anywhere in the outfield.
Freeman's arrival is the worst news specifically for Gavin Lux, who couldn't find a regular position last year and won't now (assuming no injuries), as he could have played regularly in a Lux-Muncy-Turner infield/DH rotation. Lux will now drop into a lesser-used utility role, which is a concern considering he only seemed to hit once given a regular role last September. He might be the second baseman initially, if Muncy indeed begins as a DH, but from a full season-projection perspective, he's downgraded to being beneath the draft-worthy tier in ESPN's standard leagues.
Let's get back to Bellinger, too. One concern I'd have about a lineup constructed like this is that the Dodgers' depth actually hurts his fantasy value a little, if only because there's so much talent to choose from, the team no longer needs to be painstakingly patient through a hitter's slumps. Bellinger has the lengthiest history on this roster when it comes to those cold spells. His ceiling improves with Freeman's arrival, thanks to the deeper lineup, but his floor similarly drops. That could also be said for older, somewhat injury-prone players like Turner and AJ Pollock, but to be clear, little should change in terms of ranking, because the only impact is the slight widening of their ceilings and floors (which are mostly driven by runs/RBI production and playing time).
Finally, such an All-Star lineup means maximized opportunity for those of you in daily leagues, meaning the Dodgers will be as attractive an offense in those formats (and for DFS) as there is in baseball.