Things are certainly going to look different for the Atlanta Braves in 2022, as the team will have a new first baseman on Opening Day for the first time in 12 years.
Yes, on Monday, the defending World Series champions acquired Matt Olson from the Oakland Athletics. By doing so, they've nearly assured that longtime Brave and key member of that title-winning team Freddie Freeman will depart via free agency, although there's perhaps a distant chance he returns now that the National League has officially adopted the DH. Thanks in large part to his defensive prowess -- his 21 Defensive Runs Saved since the beginning of 2019 are seven more than any other first baseman has had -- Olson will almost assuredly man first base with his new team.
While Olson and Freeman are differently styled hitters, a common trait they share is a recent contact-rate improvement. Freeman posted 82%-plus contact rates in each of the last two seasons -- the first time in his career he had reached the 80% threshold. Meanwhile, Olson led all batting title-eligible hitters by improving his contact rate by nearly 12% last season (65.2% in 2020, 76.9% in 2021). And that wasn't a pandemic-2020 fluctuation either, as he was in the 72% range in 2018-19.
What makes Olson different from Freeman, however, is his extreme fly-ball approach and a history of hard contact, things that you wouldn't think would be a great fit for the Oakland Coliseum. Yet, he nevertheless put forth excellent numbers there. The move to Atlanta's Truist Park is a sizable boost in park factors, if only because of how spacious the Coliseum was. That's something I'd argue would impact Olson's BABIP more than even his power production. He's more likely to match (and arguably exceed) last season's 39 home runs in Atlanta, especially since his contact-rate gains came with practically no loss of contact quality -- and he'll play 2022 at a prime-age 28.
Olson also brings along a platoon-free approach, having set an all-time record with 22 home runs for a left-handed hitter against left-handed pitchers. That's not to say that Freeman's platoon split was problematic, but 55 wOBA points are 55 wOBA points. I was already confident enough in Olson's repeat prospects -- coupled with the chances he'd get traded into a good situation like this -- that he was my No. 3 first baseman for points leagues, and that ranking strengthens accordingly with the move.
Freeman also should get a slight strengthening of his No. 2 positional ranking, with it looking increasingly likely he'll now land with the potent, runs/RBI padding Los Angeles Dodgers lineup or in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium.
From the Athletics' side, a haul of prospects including outfielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers and starting pitchers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes, represents an awfully good one. The team is now in all-out rebuild mode, meaning trades of Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas appear to be inevitable, and there could be opportunities for Pache and Langeliers specifically before midseason. Pache, in fact, could wind up the team's Opening Day center fielder, delivering a "lite" version of the numbers of the man who should take over that job after his suspension expires, Ramon Laureano. Pache might yet lock in a regular outfield spot with a hot start, so he's an immediate AL-only sleeper.
Cusick is a high-ceiling prospect and Estes is coming off a strong year in Class A ball, landing both firmly on the dynasty league map. Cusick is one to certainly watch, as he'll call one of the game's best pitchers' parks his home once he's big-league ready.