We've often discussed how truly dependent Shohei Ohtani's fantasy baseball value is on your league's settings and I'm in firm agreement that he's a much less appealing selection in a league with weekly transactions which force seven-day decisions between his hitting or pitching numbers. It's extremely difficult to make a case for ever using him as a pitcher, considering the tendency of the Los Angeles Angels to use a six-man rotation to keep his workload in check, meaning nothing but one-start weeks. As a hitter alone, he's a top-20 overall player in terms of sheer talent, so it's tough to defer to his pitching numbers while ignoring a 5-6 game week out of the DH spot.
Well, it turns out that I'll be going against that grain in one such league in 2022: The annual League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR), AL-only industry analysts salary-cap draft, which took place March 4. Ohtani was the 12th player off the board, acquired by yours truly for an entirely reasonable (even if only to be used as a hitter) $31.
Most significantly, I'll almost assuredly have to squeeze some pitching production out of Ohtani, considering I spent just $68 on the remainder of my pitching staff, $30 of which went to pitchers who are very clearly relievers.
Again, it was a price I simply could not refuse, having valued him $37 -- just $4 beneath Jose Ramirez, $3 behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and equal to clear No. 1 starter Gerrit Cole -- while the near-entirety of the first round of nominees, except for Marcus Semien ($26, my listed price), went for at least $1 more than I was willing to pay. He might not do it in a traditional way, but Ohtani solves a lot of potential problems for salary-cap drafters, his speed assuring he'll contribute a good number of stolen bases to go along with his elite power, plus the "bonus" of anything he provides you from the mound, should you find an attractive week (yes, singular intended) where the matchup points towards using him as a pitcher.
Considering we're at a state in the baseball offseason (in other words, mid-lockout), where further changes (be it roster moves, scheduling, injuries, etc.) might yet be in order, that's the kind of flexibility I wanted on my team. Get a guy with numerous ways to contribute, keep the overall roster similarly flexible, and figure the rest out once we know how the rest of the ramp-up to the 2022 season plays out.
Speaking of that uncertainty
LABR decided in advance to handle the massive number of remaining free agents in an unusual way. The top-12 free agents according to NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) average draft position -- Freddie Freeman, Trevor Story, Nick Castellanos, Kenley Jansen, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Anthony Rizzo and Clayton Kershaw -- were all deemed ineligible for the draft, while all other free agents could be bid upon or selected in the reserve draft. In the event that any of those free agents subsequently signs with a National League franchise, he would need to be immediately released by his LABR team, but his American League manager would receive half of his salary back in FAB (Free Agent Budget). As for the 12 excluded free agents, those who end up signing with an AL team in advance of Opening Day will go into a live FAB bidding session among all LABR managers.
That presented some strategic angles, including rostering a free agent with the hopes of having acquired him at a discount due to the fear of his landing in the other league -- or one I ultimately employed, rostering a free agent knowing that even if he lands in the NL, I'd get FAB back and have both his available roster spot as well as an advantage over the field with the extra funds. Michael Conforto ($7) was ultimately that player. He's a relatively high-floor performer who could prove to be a huge bargain if he lands in the AL, or he will give me $4 in FAB funds to pursue any of the four OF-eligible excluded free agents (Castellanos, Bryant, Schwarber, Rosario).
I punted batting average
Or did I? Going into the draft, this was a distinct part of my strategy, knowing that league batting averages have declined in large part due to the shift during the past decade, and that many of my desired targets weren't especially good in the category. When Matt Olson ($27) and Joey Gallo ($17) hovered at entirely reasonable prices, I scooped them both up and went all-in on the strategy. Losing out on Luis Arraez in the later rounds just about locked the plan in, and when Danny Jansen proved too pricey at catcher, I locked it in with Mike Zunino ($6), hoping to load up on power, RBI and runs.
That is, until I realized that might not have punted after all. The ESPN projections have this offense projected second in home runs and RBI, first in runs (by a total of 28 over second place) and tied for first in stolen bases. Remarkably, my roster is also sixth in batting average (.253). It goes to show how variable the category is these days and how every team looks mediocre on that front. It's also why this is not a completely outrageous angle.
Tristan's 2022 LABR-AL roster
Catchers: Alejandro Kirk ($8), Mike Zunino ($6)
Infield: Matt Olson ($27), Anthony Rendon ($19), Ryan Mountcastle ($20), Willi Castro ($1), Gleyber Torres ($20), Ramon Urias ($1)
Outfield: Myles Straw ($22), Joey Gallo ($17), Michael Conforto ($7), Jarren Duran ($5), Julio Rodriguez ($5), Jake Meyers ($2)
Pitchers: Shohei Ohtani ($31), Lucas Giolito ($27), Ryan Pressly ($20), Matt Barnes ($7), Zach Plesac ($6), Jonathan Loaisiga ($3), James Kaprielian ($2), Nate Pearson ($2), Daniel Lynch ($1)
Reserves: Trevor Larnach, Garrett Crochet, Jose Suarez, Andres Munoz, Sam Huff, Jordan Balazovic
Note: To see all LABR-AL rosters, head here.
Using ESPN's stats projections, the final AL-only LABR standings would have my team with 57.5 points in the hitting categories and 34.0 points in the pitching categories, for a combined total of 91.5 roto points and an easy first-place finish over Larry Schechter of Winning Fantasy Baseball (83.5 total, 39.0 hitting, 44.5 pitching) and Ian Kahn of The Athletic (79.0 total, 28.5 hitting, 50.5 pitching).
Note, however, that both Ohtani's hitting and pitching statistics come into play with the above projections and there's simply no way I'll be able to utilize all of his numbers on both sides of the ball. Since, in a league like this, he'll slot in as a hitter much more often in general, it makes more sense to project the standings under the assumption that he never contributes a single pitching statistic to my squad. Even in that event, my squad would end up with 85.5 roto points, still good enough for a very competitive third-place overall finish.
That's not too shabby, but then again, does any fantasy team look shabby on draft day?