If you can't beat 'em, sign 'em.
That's the apparent strategy of the New York Mets -- well, really, their strategy is to simply load up on stellar parts -- in signing Max Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner and the No. 3 finisher in that balloting in 2021. Scherzer had a history of dominance against the Mets, including his no-hitter and his best single-game fantasy point total (49, using ESPN's traditional scoring system), four games of 25-plus points (tied for his most against a single opponent), a 2.68 ERA, an 0.94 WHIP and 213 strikeouts against them (the latter his most against a single opponent).
Granted, he'll no longer face the Mets, but you can throw in his career track record at Citi Field, which includes a 10-2 record, a 2.14 ERA, an 0.90 WHIP and 125 strikeouts in 14 starts, and it's clear that Scherzer enjoys pitching in New York. It makes sense considering his big-stage track record, which includes a 3.22 career postseason ERA and 10 of 21 postseason starts resulting in a 60-plus Bill James Game Score, a 1.88 ERA in his seven career Sunday Night Baseball starts and that brilliant 7-0 record and 1.98 ERA in his 11 starts following his trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers last July.
There's really no denying that Scherzer is still a great pitcher, even at age 37. There's no reason to expect any sort of significant downturn in his fantasy production, at least not in the immediate future. He was initially my No. 5 starting pitcher and No. 18 player overall in my start-of-the-offseason rankings -- although Shohei Ohtani's inclusion artificially influences that position's ranks -- and there's no question that he will be at least that valuable for his new team. In fact, it's an easy case to make that Scherzer is now as attractive a fantasy pick as any (exclusively) starting pitcher.
The reason I'm keeping him almost exactly at that initial ranking spot, however, is the slowly heightening risk of injuries or said downturn in production happening. The buzz that surrounds Scherzer gives a feel of that perennial Cy Young contender he was from 2013-18. Now, here's the nitpicker's fair points:
Scherzer hasn't reached the 200-IP threshold during the regular season since 2018, even prorating his 2020 frames to a 162-game schedule, and he only barely got to 200 in 2019 if we include his postseason work.
Scherzer has made three trips to the IL in the last three seasons, for back and groin issues, which further complicates the workload question.
Scherzer has also had his starting schedule altered during both the 2019 and 2021 postseasons, getting scratched from 2019 World Series Game 5 due to back issues (he would pitch Game 7, however) and 2021 National League Championship Series Game 6 due to fatigue. Considering his drive to pitch and the heightened importance of those games, it's worth wondering whether those issues might've ultimately landed him on the IL had they occurred at a lower-pressure, midseason point.
Scherzer's four-seam fastball showed a hint of diminished velocity and average spin over the full 2020 -- that word is italicized because of how small the amount -- but he had a couple of games later in the year (including the postseason) where the effects of that were more noticeable. Again, it was incredibly minor, but at his age, any shifts in velocity bear watching.
Fantasy managers sometimes have a way of getting carried away with players arriving in big markets, and that's a danger with Scherzer. He's at the stage of his career where better performance shouldn't be expected, a repeat effort is entirely reasonable, and a small decline is within the realm of possibility. This feels in many ways like the 2015-17 phase of ex-teammate Clayton Kershaw's career -- and Kershaw, by the way, was almost 10 years younger at the time -- where per-game excellence should be expected, but it might be wiser to base your expectations around 30 starts and 180 innings.