Most of the trades that occur prior to the July 30 deadline will play only a small role in adjusting fantasy baseball value, and such is the case with the Tampa Bay Rays acquiring legendary designated hitter Nelson Cruz from the Minnesota Twins on Thursday. Cruz, 41, has been among the top power hitters in baseball for the past eight seasons, showing little-to-no sign of decline despite his age. His addition should greatly improve the Rays offense for the rest of this season.
Cruz, a ninth-round pick in ESPN average live drafts but worthy of a top-50 spot (which is where I ranked him), is among the top-40 hitters on ESPN's Player Rater. He is annually underrated by fantasy managers who believe he is too old to continue his top-notch production. They are wrong! Not only is Cruz baseball's home run leader since the start of 2014 (with 31 more than anyone else!), but only three hitters have hit more than him since the start of 2019. Cruz finished eighth in OPS last season and he ranks 17th in 2021. His exit velocity is among the league's best. His contact rate has not been this high in 11 years. No, Cruz is not slowing down.
The contending Rays are among the top-10 major league teams in runs per game, but their production from the DH spot, where Austin Meadows saw much of the plate appearances, has been rather ordinary. Meadows, second on the club in OPS but with a mark more than 100 points lower than Cruz, can capably handle left field. Manuel Margot, currently on the injured list, stands to lose playing time, but either he or Brett Phillips can replace Meadows late in games for defense.
Playing half of the time in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field rather than Minnesota's Target Field is not quite as attractive, but Cruz can bash anywhere -- and hitting in a better lineup should help his counting stats, too. The bottom line is that Cruz immediately becomes Tampa Bay's top hitter, and it is not terribly close.
Expect Cruz to settle into the No. 3 lineup spot, where he had an excellent 1.017 OPS (in that role) for Minnesota. Beyond that, anything goes in a Kevin Cash lineup. Brandon Lowe tends to lead off versus right-handed pitching, with Randy Arozarena handling "top honors" against left-handed pitching. Both should score more runs with Cruz around. Meadows looks better today. Ji-Man Choi looks better. Everyone looks better with Cruz around, although it will be interesting to see what happens with rookie Wander Franco, who had hit third several times in the past week. The Rays also sent rookie Vidal Brujan back to Triple-A Durham on Thursday.
What gets left behind
As for the lowly Twins, one of the obvious disappointments in the sport this season, they get pitchers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman in the deal, a reasonable return since they are both among the top-20 prospects in Tampa Bay's loaded minor-league system. Both are faring well at Durham as starting pitchers. Neither is an instant add for mixed fantasy leagues at this time and, honestly, both looked better as potential Rays, given their pitcher's park. If choosing between the pair in a deeper format, go with Ryan first. He boasts a 0.79 WHIP at Triple-A, with excellent control and a stronger strikeout rate.
In addition, losing Cruz makes the Twins lineup considerably weaker, with no obvious beneficiary for plate appearances. Alex Kirilloff has been lost for the season with a wrist injury. Trevor Larnach is already playing regularly, and not faring well. Nick Gordon? Willians Astudillo? Perhaps we see Brent Rooker again? There may be more trades ahead, with outfielder Byron Buxton being another possibility for a change of address. Regardless, even as the Twins did the right thing in giving a beloved veteran another shot at the playoffs, watching the Twins for the rest of 2021 became less enticing on Thursday.