Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Richard Rodriguez has certainly done his job for both his team and fantasy baseball managers this season, posting a 1.91 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. He should have more than eight saves at this point, but such is life closing for a last-place team. The thing is, in about five weeks -- or perhaps even fewer -- Rodriguez likely will not be closing for the Pirates any longer. It seems very likely that a contender will trade for Rodriguez, at which point concern for fantasy investors centers on whether or not he closes for his new team, as well as who replaces him for saves with the Pirates.
July arrives next week and with it comes a daily flood of rumors about players potentially on the move. Fantasy managers know that when it comes to save compilers on bad teams there is always a risk that, through no fault of the pitchers, the saves will cease after the trades. This did not happen last season, though, as we saw the Kansas City Royals move Trevor Rosenthal to the San Diego Padres and Brandon Workman went from the Boston Red Sox to the Philadelphia Phillies. Only the former pitched well for his new team, but at least some saves kept coming for each veteran.
Of course, that is merely one example and, as always, context is key. It is tough to find a situation in which Rodriguez or Texas Rangers RHP Ian Kennedy or Minnesota Twins LHP Taylor Rogers accumulate saves for current contenders. The Tampa Bay Rays are always a possibility to trade for a pitcher and offer him ninth-inning work, but every other contender seems to be set, barring injury. Perhaps the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics would push their current closers to setup duties, but that's about it.
Some fantasy managers may want to explore trade options for Rodriguez, Kennedy, Rogers and myriad others on the theory the saves will dry up soon, but I view that as over-aggressive behavior. Sure, trades may happen, but for each trade I assume will happen, one does not. Relievers tend to be volatile performers to start with, and are at the whim of managers when it comes to role. Saves may be more important in roto leagues than points formats, but still, you want good relief pitchers on your teams who prevent runs and accrue strikeouts.
The real winners among relief pitchers at the trade deadline tend to be the ones that remain on the bad teams and become closers. Sometimes it is difficult to guess who is next. In Pittsburgh, I think right-hander David Bednar is the obvious choice -- and other than the five home runs allowed, he has pitched well, leading the club with a 12.3 K/9. In fact, one could easily make the case, without knowing what will happen, that Bednar saves more games than Rodriguez does over the final two months.
Anyway, here is a look at bullpens for non-contending teams, because nothing screams "trade deadline" more than eagerly waiting to find out where Joakim Soria ends up!
Baltimore Orioles: I doubt the soft-tossing Cesar Valdez would have fetched much in trade before he got hurt. Left-hander Paul Fry and righty Cole Sulser have both pitched well and may be trade options themselves, though there is little to save. Avoid this bullpen in fantasy.
Kansas City Royals: The experienced Greg Holland may absolutely end up getting traded, but I cannot imagine a contender letting him pitch the ninth inning. Josh Staumont or Scott Barlow, both righties, should be saving games here and neither seems likely to end up traded, but this still feels like an annoying committee.
Minnesota Twins: Rogers is on a one-year contract but the Twins have now won five in a row, and they seem talented enough to get back into contention. It all depends on the next five weeks -- whether the Twins keep winning -- as to whether or not they start to sell. Hansel Robles may also move elsewhere. Tyler Duffey may fall into August saves if others move.
Detroit Tigers: Good for Michael Fulmer for reinventing himself. He could absolutely help a contender in a setup role. Left-hander Gregory Soto and righty Jose Cisnero loom for saves, but really, the Tigers should try to move everyone in this bullpen.
Texas Rangers: Kennedy is the clear closer here. The Rangers should take whatever they can in trade and do him a favor since he is 36 and his lone postseason appearances came a decade ago in Arizona. Give Kennedy another chance! Josh Sborz may be next in line for saves, but the younger Demarcus Evans closed in the minors and should be the longer-term option, so try to plan here.
Miami Marlins: Yimi Garcia has pitched fine, though his strikeout rate has cratered in June. The Marlins may believe they can still win the NL East and keep the bullpen intact. Heck, maybe they can contend! Dylan Floro and Anthony Bass are also trade bait. Trade them all!
Pittsburgh Pirates: There seems no logical reason for the Pirates to keep Rodriguez around. Veteran Chris Stratton has the only other Pirates save, but Bednar is definitely the one to watch and add soon in deeper fantasy formats.
Colorado Rockies: Daniel Bard is not having a particularly good season, and really, he cannot blame Coors Field. What is interesting is that while Bard's road ERA is 7.04, he has barely pitched outside of Colorado, as in only 7 2/3 of his 30 innings. He has been solid at home! Anyway, Mychal Givens, should he remain on the Rockies, likely gets the August saves, although both Carlos Estevez and Jordan Sheffield lurk.
Arizona Diamondbacks: It has been a rough season in Arizona! The team's most recent "conventional save" came six weeks ago! The aforementioned Soria, should he pitch well enough in the next five weeks, is obvious trade bait. While Soria does not yet have any saves this season, he boasts ample experience in the role and should not cost much. Sometimes that is all it takes.
Pitchers likely to stay put
Brad Hand, Washington Nationals: The NL East remains relatively wide open but if the Nationals cannot reach the .500 mark by the final week of July, Hand is likely to move. The left-hander has pitched well (for the most part) and he leads relievers on the 15-day ESPN Player Rater.
Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels: Somewhat like Hand, Iglesias's team is not Pirates-level bad, so it depends how the team plays over the next month. Iglesias is back to permitting home runs, but he is a proven saves option.
Kendall Graveman, Seattle Mariners: Perhaps Seattle, with the longest playoff drought in the sport, has more wins than losses in a month and can justify keeping the emerging Graveman around. He has pitched well and offers some stability.