Wednesday's recommended pickups begin with a top outfield prospect, in what has been a difficult year to gauge rookies overall. Could this one be the next big star?
Jesus Sanchez, OF, Miami Marlins: Let's get to it upfront, this year's rookie class has been a mixed bunch. Only three players who have made their major-league debuts in 2021 have even as much as one Win Above Replacement (Ha-seong Kim 1.1, Jake Brentz 1.0 and Taylor Walls 1.0), in a season where we're already beyond the entirety of the 2020 schedule's total games, which compares poorly to 2020's 13 players who had at least that many (not to mention the five who had at least 1.5 WAR). Fourteen rookie-eligibles this season have at least one WAR, but only five have more than 1.4 (Trevor Rogers 2.8, Randy Arozarena 2.4, Adolis Garcia 2.4, Ian Aanderson 2.3 and Casey Mize 2.3), after a 2020 season in which 20 had at least one WAR.
That's what makes it tough for fantasy managers to trust this year's freshman class, and for me to recommend them, though it's often those newbies thrust into new, starting big-league opportunities who register as the most attractive adds. Sanchez fits: He was widely regarded a top-100 overall prospect as he ascended the Tampa Bay Rays' organization, ultimately ending up included in the July 2019 trade for Nick Anderson, and he has been on an absolute tear for the Marlins' Triple-A affiliate in Jacksonville. In 33 games, Sanchez batted .349/.400/.643 with nine home runs and a 79.1% contact rate, earning himself a promotion to the majors on Tuesday when the Marlins placed Corey Dickerson on the 10-day injured list. Sanchez's raw power is his most appealing trait, as he hit 14 homers with .226 isolated power in his 68 games at the Triple-A level spread across two seasons (2019, 2021), and even in his limited time at the big-league level last season (plus Tuesday), he has made hard contact on 62.5% of his balls in play.
Sanchez is also a disciplined enough hitter -- 8.3% walk and 75.9% contact rates in Triple-A ball -- to avoid the massive slumps common to power-hitting prospects, with his spacious home ballpark the thing that concerns me more. He's presumably here to play, and based on his pedigree he's a strong add in everything but the most shallow league (perhaps anything 12-team-mixed or deeper).
Jake Fraley, OF, Seattle Mariners: He was the last cut from my Monday column, but two days later he sneaks his way in. Fraley is understandably overlooked, having never graced a prominent top-100 prospect list, while residing in an organization with at least four more highly regarded outfield prospects, most notably the top-10 overall rated Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez. Prospects like this usually take people like surprise, and they should: He's got that perfect mix of solid hit tool, the ability to play all three outfield positions but the corner spots the best, a hint of power and better-than-average speed. In a way, he's a "lite" version of someone like Michael Brantley, from the earlier stages of the current Houston Astros outfielder's career, capable of .280, 15-and-15 numbers but probably no All-Star mentions.
Fraley's improvements this year, as a 26-year-old capitalizing upon the team's outfield injuries and struggles by rookies Kelenic and Taylor Trammell, warrant mention. Fraley has vastly cut down on his chase rate (rate of swings at pitches outside the rulebook strike zone), his 12.6% mark the second-best among players with at least as many as his 78 plate appearances, he has boosted his line-drive rate to a whopping 30.6% and he has four Barrels already. If there's a limitation to his game, it's that he profiles as a straight platoon man, having possessed wide lefty/righty splits throughout his professional career, but that's not a bad thing in ESPN leagues, with the daily-transactions standard.
Ross Stripling, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: He might seem an odd inclusion on today's list, scheduled to pitch on the night of his inclusion in the column as opposed to the day after, going up against the New York Yankees and coming off what wasn't an eye-popping most recent turn. This is a bit of getting-out-in-front: Stripling, and his Blue Jays, have a remarkably favorable schedule in the next several weeks, and frankly, their schedule doesn't get all that difficult overall for their pitchers until the month of September. The Yankees, after all, have struggled mightily of late, and if the Blue Jays keep Stripling and their rotation on a five-man standard, then his next four starts would be: @MIA (June 22), BAL (June 27), TB (July 3), @TB (July 9), with the possibility of Seattle Mariners (June 29-July 1) and/or Baltimore Orioles matchups (July 6-8) if the team shuffles its order or skips someone. There are also Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians matchups in the team's schedule in the three weeks that immediately follow the All-Star break.
Stripling's recent adjustments, though, drive this speculative pickup. He made a key tweak between his May 19 and May 24 starts, tucking his glove closer to his body during his windup, in an attempt to counter the team's theory that he was tipping his pitches. But this is what stands about it: In his four starts since, he has dialed his average four-seam fastball velocity up to 92.4 mph, up from the 91.4 he has averaged so far in his big-league career, generating 10 of his 20 strikeouts with the pitch during that time. Fantasy managers remember this stretch for Stripling's maddening usage as a follower in that May 24 start, coming in when the game already seemed out of hand, but with the changes he has made and the schedule upcoming, he might well perform as a consistently start-worthy option even in shallow mixed leagues.