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Fantasy baseball forecaster for Week 7: May 17-23

Shohei Ohtani has at least seven strikeouts in all five starts this season. AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

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  • A doubleheader between the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels on Thursday, which makes up the teams' April 17-18 postponements due to the Twins' COVID-19 issues, gives us our first eight-game scheduled weeks of 2021 (excluding the extended Week 1). For the Angels, it's a volume-driven week that leans more favorably towards their pitchers than hitters, but eight games usually locks a team's hitters in as an across-the-board must. Shohei Ohtani is a big story here, as this is the second time in two weeks that he was presented an opportunity for a two-start week, only to have it taken from him before the weekly lineup lock time. Manager Joe Maddon said he'd push Ohtani back in the rotation from Tuesday ultimately slotting him in for Wednesday against the Cleveland Indians, the most favorable single-start arrangement he could've asked for Week 7. If you play in a weekly league, the choice for Ohtani this week is obvious: Start him as a hitter, as he'll play a majority of the eight games after starting 20 of the Angels' past 21 games (through May 13).

  • The Twins, meanwhile, have the rougher go of it on the hitting side. The Twins are aligned to face Lance Lynn (Tuesday), Lucas Giolito (Wednesday) and Shane Bieber (Saturday), while the Angels draw Zach Plesac (Tuesday), Aaron Civale (Wednesday), Chris Bassitt (Friday) and Sean Manaea (Sunday). Both offenses have matchups that favor right- over left-handed hitters, a boon to widely available players Mitch Garver (56.6% available in ESPN leagues) and Taylor Ward (99.1%), but it's the Twins who have a pair of two-start pitchers you might be able to add in your league: J.A. Happ (78.0% available), who granted was pounded by the Chicago White Sox, whom he'll face first on Monday, in his last start, and Michael Pineda (26.0%).

  • The Atlanta Braves have by far Week 7's most favorable hitting matchups, in large part because they'll draw the New York Mets for three week-opening home games at a time where Jacob deGrom (right side, IL) will remain sidelined. The Braves will face a Mets spot starter (Tuesday) and David Peterson (Wednesday), and the Pittsburgh Pirates' worst-performing starter in Mitch Keller (Saturday) plus fifth starter Wil Crowe (Thursday) during the teams' four-game weekend series at Truist Park. The Braves' top five hitters are all generally rostered in fantasy leagues, but Austin Riley (40.3% available in ESPN leagues) is still out there for the taking in many, and the team should lean on William Contreras (91.2%) and Ender Inciarte (99.4%) as their seven-eight hitters, with the former handling the starting catching duties and the latter activated from the injured list on May 14 to presumably take over the center field chores.

  • The White Sox, one of the Twins' opponents as noted above, have the roughest go of it in Week 7, and on both sides of the ball. The White Sox's pitchers have to tangle with a Twins offense that ranks top-nine in both runs per game (4.66, ninth) and wOBA (.316, sixth) for three week-opening road games, then a New York Yankees lineup that is much more talented than its current 24th-ranked 3.86 runs per game suggests, in three games at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. On the hitting side, the White Sox are scheduled to face Michael Pineda (Tuesday), Jordan Montgomery (Friday) and Gerrit Cole (Saturday), and that four of their six projected opposing starters are right-handed doesn't help matters for this righty-heavy lineup. Most White Sox players are clear start/sits, but this is a "show me" kind of week for rookie Andrew Vaughn, who has picked up his play with .276/.405/.448 hitting rates while starting each of the team's past nine games (through May 13) but has a challenging week ahead.

  • A trio of American League teams -- the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners -- make weekend trips to National League ballparks for three-game interleague series, and all three have given indications in past interleague games that they prefer to shift their regular designated hitters to field positions in them. The Red Sox's J.D. Martinez is the big one, having started in left field in each of the team's two games at the New York Mets April 27-28, and he'll probably do the same for at least two if not all three of their games at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park, costing Franchy Cordero at-bats. The Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini, who typically share the DH chores, typically shift to left field and first base in NL venues, which chips into the playing time of Austin Hays and DJ Stewart. The Mariners' Mitch Haniger usually shifts to right field in NL ballparks, but that's no longer a problem for the team's regular field-position players with Ty France on the injured list. All three teams have middling hitting ratings for Week 7, so keep the Orioles' and Red Sox's lost playing time in mind.

  • With interleague play often comes shorter weeks for involved teams -- it's common to see teams play two-game interleague series Tuesday and Wednesday with off days bookending it -- and the Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers are two such squads who suffer the misfortune of a five-game Week 7 schedule due to that arrangement. The St. Louis Cardinals are the third, theirs the unusual intraleague five-gamer, all of which will be played at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates (two games) and Chicago Cubs (three). Predictably, none of the Royals, Brewers or Cardinals has a great hitting grade as a result, though all three have matchups that strongly favor left- over right-handed hitters.

  • The Cincinnati Reds are one of three teams to play on all seven days with all of those games coming at home, joining the aforementioned Braves and Texas Rangers. As Great American Ball Park is one of the majors' more hitting-friendly environments, the Reds naturally have great matchups on that side of the ball. Nick Senzel (64.9% available), who has begun stealing playing time from Jonathan India at second base, is well worth the add-and-start considering this schedule (though check the status of his heel injury, deemed day-to-day after occurring May 13), and Tyler Naquin (29.7%) remains a must in a week where the Reds are scheduled to face six right-handed starters. On the mound, the team has its top two starters, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo, aligned for two starts. Castillo has struggled thus far, but the opposing San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers grade as above-average matchups for a right-hander, giving him an excellent chance at a rebound. Keep him in there.

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks get the benefit of a three-game weekend visit to Colorado's Coors Field, which is largely behind their favorable hitting ratings. It's more than enough to neutralize the full-week schedule that includes week-opening assignments against Los Angeles Dodgers starters Julio Urias (Monday), Clayton Kershaw (Wednesday) and Trevor Bauer (Thursday), but keep in mind the wide divide in matchups strength if you can pick and choose in daily leagues. Typical leadoff man Pavin Smith (64.2% available) is well worth the add-and-start considering the Coors games, and popular pickup Josh Rojas (33.6%) warrants your activation as well, considering he has resumed getting starts out of the No. 2 lineup spot.

  • The Washington Nationals have an unusually favorable hitting grade for right-handed hitters despite drawing five projected right-handed starters as opponents, and that's mostly because Chicago Cubs righties Zach Davies (Tuesday) and Trevor Williams (Thursday) and Orioles righty Matt Harvey (Sunday) have minimal-to-no platoon splits. This remains a good week to keep No. 2 hitter Josh Harrison (65.8% available) and No. 5 hitter Starlin Castro (83.9%) in your fantasy lineup. Dodgers left-handed hitters have a similarly strong hitting grade, thanks to their being scheduled to face five right-handed starters in their seven games. Though he's typically slotted eighth in their lineup, Gavin Lux (58.4% available) should get a good number of starts as a result, with matchups that warrant your getting him into your lineup.