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Will Jacob deGrom pitch this week or won't he? At the dawn of the week, all indications were that he probably wouldn't require an injured list stint, though it's possible he could have his next turn pushed back, which is an issue when his New York Mets are scheduled for only five games and have the ability to shuffle their rotation. He's the best fantasy starter in the game when healthy, but he's a tough, tough play in a league with weekly transactions.
Fresh off his May 5 no-hitter against the Seattle Mariners, John Means aligns for a potential two-start week, with that being tied to whether or not his Baltimore Orioles stick to their recently stated plan to skip the fifth starter where possible until May 22. He'd make a road start against the New York Mets, followed by one back home against the New York Yankees, both matchups that individually grade below-average. The Forecaster projections, however, indicate that his performance to-date, much of that the result of greater effectiveness of his changeup, is the more relevant measure. Means is a top-five two-start pitcher and a member of the positional top-20 overall for Week 6.
Interleague play begins ramping up during Week 6, covering a season-high 20 total and 21.5% of the 93 scheduled games. It also involves 13 different teams, three of which -- the Chicago Cubs, the Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays -- play nothing but interleague contests. Interleague play typically shortens teams' weekly schedules, and sure enough, all 13 of those involved teams are scheduled to play either just five or six times. This isn't a deterrent for Cubs players in fantasy, however, as the team gains the designated hitter for all five of their contests, granting additional opportunity across a lineup that has woken up from an early funk with four double-digit scoring games in their past 18 (entering play on May 7) and an average of 6.71 runs per game in their past seven. That their rotation is short a man in Jake Arrieta (thumb, 10-day IL) grants Adbert Alzolay a chance at a favorable two-start week against the bottom-five-graded (against righties) Cleveland and the Detroit Tigers. Alzolay, available in 92.2% of ESPN leagues, is coming off back-to-back solid starts -- four earned runs and 13 K's in 11 innings against the Atlanta Braves and Dodgers -- and is well worth the add-and-start on the chance he draws both assignments.
The Orioles, Mariners, Texas Rangers and Blue Jays all play a series at a National League venue, where they'll lack the DH, and it will be the first time each plays under those rules in 2021. All four teams have a field position where they can shift their most common active DH -- Ryan Mountcastle of the Orioles (14 starts), Ty France of the Mariners (14), Willie Calhoun of the Rangers (13) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays (6, which trails the demoted Rowdy Tellez's 10) -- but it's the biggest problem for the Mariners, who face a brutal Week 6 schedule. Depending upon how the Dodgers address their rotation leading into Week 6, the Mariners could face Walker Buehler (Tuesday's projected starter), Julio Urias (Wednesday), Zach Plesac (Thursday), Aaron Civale (Friday) and Shane Bieber (Saturday) in five of their six games. Entering play on May 7, the Mariners ranked 29th in wOBA (.280), 26th in strikeout rate (27.1%) and 22nd in runs per game (3.97). Plus, they were recently no-hit by the aforementioned Means, making this a week to fade them in fantasy.
Speaking of Means and Alzolay, they headline what's a week of attractive two-start pitching values, many of whom are available in a good number of ESPN leagues. Brady Singer of the Royals (69.2% available) is scheduled for road starts against the top pitchers' matchup Tigers (against whom he's 3-0 and 3-of-4 in quality starts with a 1.44 ERA in his career), and the Chicago White Sox. Toronto's Robbie Ray (65.8%), who has gone three straight starts without issuing a walk for the first time in his professional career, is scheduled for a road start against the Braves and a home start against the Philadelphia Phillies. Jordan Montgomery (51.3%) is scheduled for road starts against the Tampa Bay Rays and the Orioles, teams he has faced twice apiece in 2021 already and against whom he has a 4.09 ERA. Dylan Cease (50.7%), who has back-to-back scoreless appearances, is scheduled for home starts against the Minnesota Twins and the Royals. JT Brubaker (57.4%), who hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his six starts, is scheduled for home starts at pitching-friendly PNC Park against the Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants.
The Brubaker matchup notwithstanding, Cincinnati's Week 6 hitting matchups couldn't be much more attractive. They get the benefit of the rare four-game road trip to Colorado's Coors Field, after beginning the week with those three games at Pittsburgh's PNC Park (which, granted, resides nearly at the opposite extreme of the park factors spectrum). Games against Mitch Keller and Trevor Cahill, who combined have a 6.84 ERA, more than counterbalance the Brubaker battle from a full-series perspective, and the Colorado Rockies will then have Chi Chi Gonzalez and Antonio Senzatela aligned for their weekend series against the Reds. Even better: All seven of the Reds' scheduled starting pitching opponents are right-handed -- a boon to a team that leads the majors with a .341 wOBA against righties and the second-widest wOBA split favoring that side (63 points). Jesse Winker and Mike Moustakas are musts facing a schedule like this, and Tyler Naquin (44.1%) has been getting enough playing time against righties in center field to be well worth the add-and-start, even in standard mixed leagues.
The Rockies, meanwhile, play all seven of their games at home, which is always an attractive schedule for their hitters. While they'll have to tangle with talented arms like Dinelson Lamet (Monday's projected opponent), Yu Darvish (Tuesday), Blake Snell (Wednesday) and Luis Castillo (Friday), remember that Coors does significantly bring down pitchers' pitch efficiency and overall effectiveness, while Lamet will probably still be on a pitch count and Castillo has gotten off to a rocky start to 2021. Raimel Tapia (18.9%) has been locked into the team's leadoff spot and matches up well in a week where the Rockies should face five right-handed starters, and Dom Nunez (89.3%), who gets the majority of the catching starts against righties, could be the deep-mixed and NL-only gem of their week.
Beyond Singer, the Royals (as a whole) match up well for Week 6, in large part because of that week-opening, three-game series at the Tigers. The Royals have been an aggressive team on the base paths, with an American League-leading 25 stolen bases and 33 attempted steals. They draw favorable matchups in that department against Tigers catcher Grayson Greiner, who is below-average at reining in the running game, as well as in the White Sox games that Zack Collins catches. It's enough of a boost to get the improving Andrew Benintendi (17.7%) in your lineup, as five (and possibly) six of his scheduled starting pitching opponents are right-handed -- though three of them are likely to be Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Cease.
The Phillies are scheduled to face a league-high four left-handed starters in their six games, three of which will be played at Dunedin's TD Ballpark, which has seen a 4.4% HR rate and a .199 ISO, well above the 3.1% and .158 major-league averages. Start all five of the team's regular right-handed hitters, with Jean Segura rejoining that group from the injured list on May 7. Segura, available in 23.5% of ESPN leagues, has posted a wOBA 56 points higher against lefties (.363) than righties (.307) during his three-year Phillies career.