Walks are an amazing thing, especially the extremes we see during a baseball season. At its core, it is just four balls before three strikes. They happen. Still, one starting pitcher set an incredible new record on Tuesday night for the lack of free passes to start a season. Then there are the two starting pitchers who each served up six walks on the same night -- one of them taking his last name a bit too seriously.
Beyond that, we've also got the hitters, some of them testing the limits when it comes to aggressive plate behavior, and a few who actually have found some patience. Walk this way, won't you, as we discuss early facts about this ever-exciting process of walks and how, at least so far, they are affecting fantasy baseball.
None shall pass
Milwaukee Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes is dominating hitters and, not to overreact, but I am moving him into my top overall tier of starting pitchers. Why not? What are those aces doing differently or better? Burnes has now fanned 40 hitters with nary a walk in his first four starts, covering 24 1/3 innings, permitting just one run in the process. That run came on a Byron Buxton home run three weeks ago. Surely, he cannot continue his current 0.37 ERA and 0.33 WHIP for long. Still, quite clearly, he is special.
Burnes was great in 2020 as well, after a nightmare of a 2019 season that we no longer discuss because it has become irrelevant. Burnes tangibly changed not only his pitch mix and strategy, relying so much on a cut fastball with movement and throwing his off-speed pitches harder, but also ditching the windup to throw everything from the stretch. Hitters cannot make contact against him, nor do they properly square up the ball.
Since the start of last season, Burnes has thrown only four fewer innings than Jacob deGrom, so this is no "small sample size" thing going on. Yes, ERA is only one statistic used to measure pitching -- and it's a flawed one at that. Still, Burnes belongs right up there with the other top aces. He is legitimately great and, while fantasy managers must know this, none of it seems fluky to me. Trade for him with confidence. The schedule says he gets the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers next week. I will be watching.
Walking around the league
My underrated ESPN Fantasy colleague Kyle Soppe, who produces/researches for our Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast, reports that Burnes is one of three pitchers this season with three starts of six innings or more and no more than one walk. The others are Walker Buehler of the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies RHP Zach Eflin. I'll bet you did not expect to see Eflin in this crew! The Phillies have myriad problems, but Eflin is not one of them. He, too, is underrated.
Watching Los Angeles Angels RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani on Tuesday night was a bit painful, because his pitches were moving all over the place. Sure, nobody could hit them, but nobody could call most of them strikes, either. Ohtani threw 80 pitches, and just 37 for strikes. He faced 19 hitters, with 13 of them either walking or striking out. In 62 career innings, he has issued 41 walks. I'm sorry, but this is an overrated pitcher. Put Ohtani in the outfield, give him 600 PA, and we have a five-category, top-20 hitter in fantasy. Eh, I am just preaching now. It will not happen.
New York Mets RHP Taijuan Walker walked six Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, which is even more frustrating because the Cubs, entering Wednesday, are hitting a sad .189 as a team. Why give them free bases? Walker was not the same kind of wild as Ohtani was, in my opinion. Three of the walks came consecutively in the fourth inning and more than a few on debatable calls. Then, the overmatched umpire tossed Walker from the game for daring to question his calls -- after he had already been given the hook by his manager, no less. Stick with Walker this weekend against the Washington Nationals and root for automated strike zones next season.
Chicago White Sox LHP Carlos Rodon followed up his no-hitter by walking five Cleveland batters in five otherwise intriguing innings on Tuesday. Rodon does seem to have turned some proverbial corner with his raw stuff this season, but trusting his health and control remains a bit risky. This is a pitcher with a career 1.36 WHIP, and Tuesday reminded us of this fact.
Hitters of note
Shortstop Javier Baez of the Cubs was never the most patient hitter to start with, but early on, he is taking his aggressiveness to new heights. Baez struck out in all four of his Tuesday plate appearances, giving him 31 whiffs against just one walk. Pittsburgh Pirates LHP Sam Howard issued that walk, on a 3-2 pitch, which is nothing new because he has walked more than 8% of his career foes. Baez hit .203 in 2020 with a .238 OBP. He continues to hit for power and steal bases, so perhaps another 30-HR/20-SB season (like in 2018) awaits. If so, this one is going to come with a dangerously low batting average. Be careful here.
Perhaps I was wrong to recommend Jackie Bradley Jr. this season. The Brewers outfielder has whiffed in 34.4% of his plate appearances, and has drawn as many walks as you and I have. This is a problem. Bradley boasts a 9.1% career walk rate. What changed? It is not too early to run away in a mixed league. Colorado Rockies IF Josh Fuentes is the only other one of the 236 hitters with more than 40 PA who has yet to claim a base-on-balls. Fuentes is hitting .164.
Overall, walks are up so far this season, so it's no surprise that so many hitters have more of them than they do strikeouts. There are some interesting individual cases, though. Houston Astros 1B Yuli Gurriel is showing more patience than ever, already topping last season's final walk total, and hitting well over .300. ... San Diego Padres IF/OF Jurickson Profar is off to a nice, patient start, and stealing bases. ... Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has more walks than strikeouts, and is a future MVP. ... Arizona Diamondbacks C Carson Kelly is a nice surprise, with more walks than whiffs and intriguing power. ... Shortstop Francisco Lindor is off to a disappointing start for the Mets, with no homers, steals or barrels. However, he does have nine walks versus three strikeouts. If he keeps that up, it would be interesting. Perhaps, though, we would prefer he does not keep this up if it diminishes his other numbers.