When it comes time for you to take part in a fantasy baseball draft, taking a look at where (in general) players are being selected across the universe of fantasy baseball leagues can be helpful. While relying on average draft position (ADP) is far from perfect, when handled properly, it can absolutely be a useful drafting tool.
The key is to understand the limitations of ADP. It shouldn't dictate who you should pick, but it should help point out the path. For example, looking at ADP can help you decide on the selection order of two specific players. If one is more likely to be still on the board for your next pick, that's the one you should wait on.
In other cases, ADP can help to narrow down what position you might want to focus on in the present. If there's a cluster of say, shortstops, still likely to be on the board in the next 30 picks, then you should probably grab the only third baseman in that same group. Similarly, ADP can help you focus on specific categorical needs. If there is a plethora of power in upcoming rounds, now is probably the time to address speed.
In a nutshell, ADP is best deployed as a means of maximizing the level of talent drafted by interlacing your rankings into those of the market as a whole. Sure, ADP is contextual and league format matters, but in many instances, player evaluation is player evaluation, and referring to ADP is fine for the intended purpose. Just remember that A stands for average. It may be presented as a static number, but ADP is a range. In fact, the high and low picks for some players are more pertinent than the ADP itself. The range better defines the likelihood a player will be available at your next pick.
All of this brings us to the special case that makes up drafting for 2021. With so many extreme performances coming from 2020's truncated season, ADP ranges are likely going to be broader than usual. The emphasis on last year's stats will differ dramatically among drafters. As such, "playing chicken" with the room is even more precarious than usual. Let's say you have a sixth-round ranking on a player but the ADP indicates he's a ninth-rounder. In previous seasons, waiting until Round 8 to grab this player would maximize your potential return on investment. In 2021, there's a very good chance this player will be gone by the end of the seventh round. Market volatility will be high.
In order to see how the market might end up treating some "hot button" players, I set up five mock drafts, using social media to fill the spots, with no individual participating more than once. Each was conducted using ESPN's 10-team, 5x5 category scoring. Prior to the first mock, I identified the players I was most interested in seeing when they would tend to be taken. In order to not let any personal bias impact the results, I declined to select any of these names myself.
Here are the results of my research, with each player listed along with their ADP for this experiment, the corresponding expected earnings for each player, and their standard deviation percentile, which illustrates the overall range of draft selection across the five separate mocks. Anything higher than the 50th percentile indicates above-average volatility.
1. Shane Bieber, Cleveland (ADP: 10.6, $34, 96th percentile)
Emerging aces have always caused fantasy dissension. Some fantasy managers favor the "shiny new toys" while others require a longer track record before buying in -- especially for pitchers. Greater availability of next-level analysis using Statcast data certainly should help reduce the time frame necessary for trustworthy evaluation, but it can also lead to misapplication of the data, adding another layer of ranking variability. Sure enough, opinions of Bieber are all over the place. I've seen him be the first pitcher off the board in the high-stakes arena. I've also seen him taken as the No. 8 starting pitcher off the board. I personally fall in the middle of that range so, if my draft plan involved an ace arm, he's in play. Chances are, though, that someone else will beat me to the punch.
2. Trevor Bauer, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 15.6, $30, 95th percentile)
Bauer's inconsistency results in his wide range of expectations. Last year, he recorded a 1.73 ERA and in 2018, he posted a 2.21 mark. Every other season, Bauer's ERA was north of 4.00. His durability and penchant for working deep into games are alluring, especially in today's landscape where starts are getting shorter. Though it's close, I have Bauer ranked ahead of Bieber, which is contrary to the market. As such, I'm more likely to draft Bauer if I'm looking for early pitching, though there's a chance someone else in the room is on the same page, so I need to have a Plan B.
3. Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (ADP: 15.6, $30, 73rd percentile)
Lindor has two variables affecting his market view. He's coming off a subpar season and he's moving to a new team. New York's lineup should be stronger than Cleveland's, so that's a plus. On paper, Lindor's new home digs are far less hitter-friendly than his old digs. So, while he is likely to rebound, the raw outcomes should fall below what he did with Cleveland. My interest in Lindor here is due to the proliferation of quality shortstops. I wanted to see if one should take one early or wait a little and still get one of the better options.
I assumed my expectations were lower than the overall market since I'm accounting for the anticipated drop in production associated with Citi Field. While I was correct that the market likes him more than I do, that level of standard deviation suggests I may still have a shot. Because I'm more bearish, this still won't deter me from taking Trea Turner, Trevor Story or Xander Bogaerts, but I may be faced with the choice of drafting two early shortstops. As such, I need to prepare for the possibility and devise a plan in case that manifests.
4. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 16.6, $29, 92nd percentile)
No one disputes Buehler's talent, but there are varying opinions regarding his potential workload. Proponents point to the playoffs where the Dodgers loosened the reins. Opponents contend that the defending champions will want to make sure he's fresh for that repeat run, so they'll monitor Buehler's workload a bit. I share those concerns. The Dodgers are always deep in starting pitching and will likely keep Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin in the bullpen to start 2021. It just seems too likely Buehler that will fall a little short in innings compared to the other fantasy aces. The 92nd percentile range shows that opinion does vary, but since my expectations are on the lower end of the range, he's not likely going to make my roster.
5. Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP: 21.0, $27, 71st percentile)
Bichette checks all the variability boxes. He still has the "shiny new toy" allure, but he also missed half of the abbreviated season. That said, he was well on pace to hit over .300 with close to 30 HR and 20 SB, given a standard 162-game schedule. Sure enough, there are a wide range of expectations. I'm more concerned with Bichette's durability than his skills. However, being conservative with playing time drops me below the market. That said, the wide range of ADP hints I may be faced with the same decision here as with Lindor. Do I take a second shortstop? Chances are that the opportunity won't manifest, but I need to be ready, just in case.
6. Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 26.2, $25, 3rd percentile)
Hey look, it's another shortstop! Seager was among the names I was curious about because he was coming off a long-awaited breakout season. Granted, injuries (including Tommy John surgery) were what had previously suppressed his performance, but the extent of his rebound exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations. Perhaps because of Seager's pedigree and the expectation that he stays healthy, I'm bullish -- but so is the market. Not only that, but the standard deviation is also one of the smallest in the study. This is surprising as my intuition was there would be more variance around perceived 2020 "over-performers." Perhaps Seager's evaluation is more about his strong pre-injury track record than recency bias.
7. Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 30.0, $23, 1st percentile)
Flaherty's 2020 was a lot like Buehler's, but he was even moreso handled with kid gloves -- and he lacked the same playoff success. His lower ADP reflects that as, heading into last season, they were ranked pretty evenly with Buehler usually a tad higher. As usual, I'm lower on top end pitching than the market. I know this about myself and have accepted the fact I need to "hold my nose" and "overdraft" a pitcher if I want to get him. I usually try to soften the blow by opting for someone I consider to be safer. Flaherty is not a good example of this. The market apparently seems to share my concern. Someone else will anchor my rotation this season.
8. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 33.0, $23, 82nd percentile)
Ozuna posted an MVP-caliber campaign in 2020, so I wanted to gauge how recency bias influences his market perception. This was an important player for me since historically, I'm ahead of the market. Park effects are a significant aspect of my evaluation and, before Ozuna moved to Atlanta, he played in two of the most power-suppressing venues in the league -- Marlins Park and Busch Stadium. To be fair, he outhit my expectations last season, especially in home runs, after the transition to Truist Park.
Man, was it hard to let Ozuna pass in these five mocks, but I needed to know how long I can try to play chicken with the room. My rank has him as an early to mid-second rounder. His ADP sees him as an early to mid-fourth rounder. However, there is a lot of variance. The answer appears to be for me to wait one round and take Ozuna in the third, realizing that still comes with some risk that someone else shares my optimism and I may end up missing out.
9. Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 52.2, $18, 77th percentile)
Though Bieber and Flaherty also pitched in the Central region last year, I chose Maeda as a better case study for how the market may treat that softer schedule enjoyed by AL and NL Central hurlers. The aggregate lineups encountered by Central pitchers were not as productive as their East and West counterparts. Maeda's 2020 was a career-best season, so recency bias may be in effect. However, it was also only a two-month sample, therefore some may not consider it real.
Since I concentrate on skills, my evaluation was very positive, though tempered by the adjustment based on the quality of Maeda's opponents. My ranking is in lockstep with the market, but the 77th percentile means I'll have to make a tricky decision. If my roster dictates needing another pitcher, reaching a bit for Maeda could be the answer. Still, in the back of my mind I realize he could also fall another round, increasing my potential return on investment. In these instances, it's a matter of reading the room and making a judgement call, factoring in which other similar pitchers are available and my chances of drafting someone similar at a good spot.
10. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 76.8, $13, 96th percentile)
Marte had a bizarre season. His .287 average was fine, but he only notched two homers and one steal. In 2019, Marte seemingly did that every week. Well, maybe not the steals but, in any event, his production was alarmingly low. Second base is an intriguing position this season as there aren't any elite options, but there is depth at the back end of the pool. Depending how the market reacts to Marte's poor showing in 2020, there may be an opportunity to get a high-quality second baseman at a discount.
Somewhat surprisingly, my expectation for Marte lags the market. My system is very lenient towards last season's struggles, but the market appears to be mostly ignoring them. The 96th percentile says there are some still concerned, but it also indicates that some expect a full rebound. Complicating matters is that Marte's 2019 breakthrough season came with the juiced ball and this season's horsehide will be deadened. The associated adjustments suggest that others will likely be more aggressive, but the variance hints that I should hold out hope Marte falls to a spot where I'm comfortable drafting him.
11. J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox (ADP: 86.2, $12, 91st percentile)
Martinez was selected to examine because his fall from grace was monumental and I usually accept the utility-only discount with open arms if it is big enough to overcome losing the flexibility of having that spot open. Martinez was one of the batters claiming to be hurt by the lack of in-game video. I was curious to learn how the market judges narratives of this nature. Sure enough, opinions vary to a great extent as shown by the 91st percentile standard deviation. My opinion matches the ADP, so while I won't be drafting Martinez every time, there will be opportunities. As such, it would behoove roster construction to anticipate the addition of Martinez. In other words, I'll try to draft some multiple-eligibility players to make sure I'm not restricted in later rounds. After all, even if I don't ultimately select Martinez, positional flexibility is never a bad thing.
12. Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox (ADP:108, $9, 61st percentile)
Moncada was chosen to get a feel for how the market will handle players who were seemingly impacted by COVID-19. Moncada has been outspoken, reporting he never felt 100% all season. Other players, such as Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman illustrated no ill-effects, but Moncada's performance paled in comparison to his 2019, corroborated by a drop in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Again, the market is very forgiving of last season's drop in production. I'm essentially ignoring Moncada's 2020 numbers, so I expected to be more optimistic -- but I'm just a bit less so. Drafting him still comes down to how much of 2019's gains are real, again in context with the baseball in use at the time.
Final thoughts
My initial expectation of there being larger ranges of picks on some hot-button players bore out. The sample size is too small to know for sure, but in the two cases where it was small (Seager, Flaherty), both have a strong pedigree, indicating that a track record can overcome recency bias.
The market seems to be extremely tolerant of last season's woes, regardless of the cause. On a personal level, this is discouraging since I was hoping to be able to take advantage of market reticence.
Based on the data, pitching is going to be even more flummoxing than usual as I have even less of a handle of the market, since so many arms had outlier seasons last year.
My final message is evergreen, but even more apropos this season. Get your guy! Of course, he has to be worthy of the draft spot, but playing chicken in 2021 is more perilous than ever.