Between lunch and the first pitch of the 2020 baseball season, several unfortunate surprises awaited fantasy managers as both a top-10 hitter and a top-10 pitcher suddenly became inactive and unavailable, and with little clarity.
First, Nationals outfielder Juan Soto hit the injured list after testing positive for COVID-19. Then, Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw hit a different injured list with back stiffness. It is one thing to drastically alter the MLB playoff structure at the last minute, but removing two superstars we could not wait to watch on Thursday is quite another.
Each situation is concerning for their respective teams and for fantasy managers, but which absence is worse?
I think the Kershaw situation concerns me more, since he has dealt with back problems in the recent past and we know he will miss at least 10 days for this injured-list stint, and likely three starts. The Dodgers have depth, proving it on Opening Day by sending the powerful, young right arm and blessed red hair of Dustin May to the hill, and he conducted himself admirably versus a joke of a Giants lineup in a no-decision.
Tony Gonsolin and other arms await as well. The Dodgers can be so patient with Kershaw this truncated season, knowing a playoff berth is all but set.
Kershaw is no stranger to missing starts, but things magnify in a shortened campaign and yes, to answer your next question, he does drop quite a bit in my rankings and I am far more likely to fade him for weekend drafts. Kershaw averaged 27 starts and 172 innings over the past three seasons, which is fine because his ERA and WHIP dominate, and his absence is easier to deal with over a six-month deal. Now, while he's eligible to return from the IL next Friday, there is a chance that he could miss a quarter of this abbreviated season, if not more. We must be concerned this is a bigger deal but hey, May looked solid. Go get him.
With Soto and a virus showing no signs of abetting, everything is different. He claims he is asymptomatic and the test could have been a false positive. Who knows? We do know Soto could pass a few tests this weekend and play by what, Sunday? There is no minimum-day stint for the "virus" injured list. I could have replaced Soto in an NL-only league for the first scoring period, which is 11 days, but opted not to do so.
Perhaps Soto plays half the period. Would he do more than my likely replacement, and potentially his, in Michael A. Taylor? I left Soto active. We collectively seem to have few answers about the virus, but this is not a worrisome back injury. Freddie Freeman recovered from the virus and he is playing this weekend. I am optimistic Soto is close behind.
The first scoring period locked for ESPN standard leagues so it is too late to react to the Kershaw and Soto injuries there, but my advice is be patient. Keep Soto and if his manager in your league(s) is panicking, go get this generational talent. For Kershaw, keep him rostered of course, but if someone offers you a SP3 such as Trevor Bauer or Jose Berrios in trade, go for it. They could get hurt or test positive for the virus themselves, but that is about how far Kershaw drops in my rankings, and it is significant. Soto, meanwhile, slips just barely out of my first round, but I am wavering there.
Speaking of trades, watching Giancarlo Stanton punish a baseball 500 feet into another county is a joy, and his fellow Yankees outfield teammate Aaron Judge looked darn good at the plate as well in the opening win over Washington, but the Kershaw situation is a reminder here. Brittle players remain brittle in a shortened season!
Kershaw, by the way, historically misses time, but not as much as Stanton and Judge tend to. Yes, this dynamic duo combined for four hits in six plate appearances and all four runs batted in, but it is wildly optimistic to spin the Opening Day fun into believing they stay healthy for two consecutive months. Nothing changed in one night! We know they hit. Now is a wise time to test the market. See if you can get Soto in return!
Five other brief fantasy thoughts from Opening Day:
Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer recorded 16 strikeouts among the 31 outs. Impressive. Neither was stuck on a low pitch count, either. Perhaps several top-40 hurlers leave their first start or two earlier than we would like -- Walker Buehler, for example -- but in general, perhaps we overrated this theme. Cole moves back up into my first round and Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Scherzer head back into Round 2.
Baseball's new and somewhat sudden revision of the playoff structure is actually a positive for fantasy because more teams will seemingly attempt to qualify for October baseball. We want to see .500 teams going for it, playing their best options. Promote those prospects! Well, do so after the first week when it becomes financially sound. The point is, more playoff teams is a good thing.
Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu sat out the opener as he recovers from the virus, ceding leadoff duties to Aaron Hicks, but all indications are the second baseman plays this weekend, and likely leads off. In other words, those with pending drafts should see if he becomes a bargain. Brett Gardner hitting fifth, right after Stanton, also intrigues.
On the Washington side, Andrew Stevenson replaced Soto and hit eighth, which could be a one-day thing because hard-throwing Cole was the opposing pitcher, or might mean nothing. Perhaps he is in a platoon with Taylor. Stevenson lacks power but can get on base and run a bit. Rookie Carter Kieboom might be in a platoon with Asdrubal Cabrera, and on the wrong side of it, but I want to see what happens over the next week first. Kieboom has to be in there to face James Paxton and I believe a potential Rookie of the Year award awaits, if he plays regularly.
Similarly, let's see if Dodgers manager Dave Roberts continues with Max Muncy leading off rather than Joc Pederson. If he does, Pederson's value precipitously drops. Mookie Betts hitting second is fine; he still can steal bases if he so desires. Draft Enrique Hernandez, fresh off his home run and five-RBI game if you want, but he remains a low batting average option hitting low in the lineup -- albeit a strong, deep one. You can draft Hernandez active this weekend to get the stats and then worry about what to do with him in a week. Speaking of worry, that Giants lineup, oh my. Stream all the pitchers against what looked more like a spring training order.