Fantasy baseball closers: Anderson, Doolittle, Diaz among risers/fallers

Some of us are trying to avoid getting too excited about Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Anderson, but following his acquisition from the Miami Marlins last trade deadline day, he faced 78 hitters and struck out 41 of them. He walked two. Anderson dominated, and the only thing missing on his ledger to send fantasy managers into a statistical tizzy were saves. Then, in February, the Rays shipped closer Emilio Pagan to the Padres. We do not know for sure that Anderson is the new Tampa closer, but we can dream about the potential numbers.

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What if Anderson continues to not only whiff more than half the hitters he faces in 2020 but also becomes the primary closer and piles on saves too? That is what Josh Hader does, and Hader easily goes in the first 10 rounds of all drafts, perhaps the first five of many. Hader and Liam Hendriks were the lone relief pitchers to strike out more hitters than Anderson did, and they combined for 62 saves. One can never assume a relief pitcher, volatile to start with, carries over performance annually, but Anderson boasts the skills and opportunity to dominate in fantasy, which is why his value has skyrocketed this spring.

While we still lack clarity on when baseball will resume operations and return to some normalcy, we can look at relief pitchers who have gained and lost value over the past few months and dream. Average draft position has adjusted. Anderson and Pagan top the list, going in different directions. As the 2019 season ended, it was easy to view Anderson as merely the next Dellin Betances; a top strikeout reliever capable of suppressing runs but with few saves likely pending. Then Pagan became a Padre, and his value (as a setup man for Kirby Yates) tanked, while Anderson's rose.

Here are others with adjusted value.

Risers

Edwin Diaz, New York Mets: This one is weird. I think -- with more time to research and get over our group anger from his ridiculous 2019 season -- people are realizing that what happened to Diaz is unlikely to occur again. Diaz had a rough, unlucky season, serving up 15 home runs -- 10 to right-handed batters -- and ceding a ridiculous .377 BABIP. According to Fangraphs, only Braves right-hander Luke Jackson permitted a higher BABIP, and only nine pitchers were higher than .350. None came close to matching Diaz's strikeout rate. Diaz had the velocity but lacked command to throw pitches where he wanted. Does he get that back? People seem to be realizing this is likely, at least to some degree and especially if the baseball changes back to normalcy, which is why Diaz is a top-10 closer in the rankings and drafts.

Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals: Again, so much can change whenever baseball returns, but it sure seemed like Carlos Martinez was on his way to the club's rotation, which was his plan all along, and with Jordan Hicks still on the mend from Tommy John surgery, Gallegos is likely leading the depth chart for ninth-inning work. Gallegos, like Anderson, shined in his first full MLB season, piling on the strikeouts, and now saves figure to come his direction as well. It is reasonable to hope for top-10 closer numbers here.

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers: Not sure I agree with this one, as the renewed trust in Jansen came basically from a small sample size in the spring, as he whiffed six of the nine hitters he faced in meaningless games, permitting nary a baserunner. Jansen was relying more on his two-seam fastball and slider. Then again, Jansen fully deserved his elevated 3.71 ERA last season, but perhaps he can turn the disturbing trend of his decline around.

Wade Davis, Colorado Rockies: Look at this fellow first if you want to see a reliever coming off a rough 2019. The Rockies, perhaps realizing they are stuck with this Davis contract for a while, wasted no time in naming Davis the closer over Scott Oberg, though we have to be skeptical about this working out well. Still, Davis gets the first shot at saves, which is hardly without relevance.

Fallers

Will Smith, Atlanta Braves: I keep having this debate with colleague and Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast co-host Tristan H. Cockcroft about Atlanta's closing situation. We both agree the lefty Smith is the superior hurler to right-hander Mark Melancon, but the Braves keep making it clear the latter is the preferred ninth-inning option. As a result, I keep moving Smith down in my rankings, and now he is the No. 2 Braves reliever on my list. Hey, in this case, it is about the saves, and there is no rule they must go to the best reliever in a bullpen.

Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals: This lefty notably struggled to avoid home runs in 2019, as right-handers slugged .485 against him. Right-hander Daniel Hudson closed late in the season and the playoffs, and Will Harris signed as a free agent. Unlike division rival Atlanta, Washington never did make it clear about its current closing decision, but the way Doolittle struggled with performance and health, I would simply prefer to draft Hudson.

Craig Kimbrel, Chicago Cubs: As with Jansen, one should never read too much into spring numbers, but Kimbrel kind of needed to perform well in March to reassure the myriad skeptics that all is well. He did not do this. Kimbrel faced 15 hitters this spring, retiring only seven (six by strikeout) and permitting lots of, well, rough stuff. Perhaps it means nothing. However, Kimbrel allowed nine home runs in a mere 20⅔ big league innings last season (6.53 ERA), and I keep seeing setup men Rowan Wick and Jeremy Jeffress among sleeper closing selections. I will avoid Kimbrel in 2020.

Mychal Givens, Baltimore Orioles: Not that a lot of fantasy managers were giving him much love to start with, but the minute Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde raved about precocious rookie Hunter Harvey and his 100 mph fastball, and then said he was a closer candidate, it changed everything. Then we stopped seeing Givens, who was not exactly Dennis Eckersley to start with, go undrafted everywhere.