As the 2019 regular season winds down, so does prospect season for the most part. There will be a handful of names that will be called up for supporting roles, but for all intents and purposes the best days are behind us.
With the hitters in the books, it is time to shift our focus to the mound. The names below are the hurlers you need to know for 2020 if you are looking for potential ace production without paying for the ace premium in draft order or auction price.
1. Jesus Luzardo, SP, Oakland Athletics
The regular readers know I have been high on Luzardo for over a year now, calling him the best left-handed pitching prospect since last summer. The southpaw looked poised for a season filled with major league starts; however, a pair of injuries delayed his debut until September. The A's have deployed him as a long reliever and the stuff that makes him a top-of-the-rotation candidate has been evident.
Luzardo is living in the mid-90s these days with a plus changeup and an above-average breaking ball. He has good control that I believe will one day be good command. I think he will be a solid source of wins, ERA, WHIP and Ks as soon as he starts full-time. It is a No. 2 profile (maybe a No. 1 if you squint) and show ready for 2020.
2. Nate Pearson, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
I promised a few weeks ago that Pearson would be my best pitcher heading into 2020 not named Jesus Luzardo and here we are. The big righty made up for lost time after missing 99% of the 2018 season after a comebacker left him recovering from a broken arm most of the year. Selected 28th overall in 2017, he pitched across three levels with tremendous success. Most importantly, he threw 101 2/3 cumulative innings. In those frames, he struck out 119 and walked 27.
That time of control is huge for a guy his size. There are plenty of examples of long-levered pitchers that struggle with their mechanics and in turn their control. Pearson works from the stretch with what can only be described as an 80 fastball. It can travel faster than 100 mph and he can sustain velocity throughout a start. He backs that with very good slider, a slower breaking ball and changeup that are average or slightly better. If the control exhibited this year holds, he has the ability to be No. 1 on this list by early next year.
3. Casey Mize, SP, Detroit Tigers
The top overall pick in 2018, Mize was having a tremendous season before a cranky shoulder sidelined him in the middle of the summer. The most important thing is that he did return about a month later and although the results were not as good, he still was pitching. Over his first 13 starts between Advanced-A and Double-A, Mize allowed just eight(!) earned runs in 78 innings. He struck out 75 and walked only 12.
His arsenal is led by a low-90s fastball that can creep into the upper-reaches when needed. His offspeed is one of the best in the minor leagues and will allow him to fend off platoon splits while using a cutter and a slurvy breaking ball to round things out. Mize has above-average control already and even has solid command, especially of the fastball.
Odds are Detroit will not be playing for much next year either. Because of that they will -- and should -- go easy on his arm after a brief scare this year, plus play all the usual service-time games before considering a call-up. That drops him behind Luzardo and Pearson here.
4. Forrest Whitley, SP, Houston Astros
Oh boy. This was the second straight not-so-great year for Whitley. He missed a large chunk of 2018 after suspension and injury. He appeared poised for a roster spot in 2019, even out of camp perhaps. The right-hander pitched well in spring, but started the year with Triple-A Round Rock. Things got ugly very quickly.
He allowed 33 runs in 24 1/3 innings before he was shut down for nearly two months. He returned in July and flashed signs of being the best pitching prospect in baseball again, but struggled with control even after he pitched mostly at the Double-A level in the second half.
The profile is crystal clear. He is long with a plus fastball that touches 100, a hammer breaking ball, a slider/cutter pitch that he can manipulate speeds on, and a changeup that may be a 70-pitch when all is said and done. Location is the only thing that is currently average or worse. That and some questions about makeup. All the tools are there, but 2020 will demand some actual results.
5. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox
Landing fifth on this list is not bad for a pitcher who did not throw in an official game all season. Kopech made his big league debut late last season and showed off his ace potential. Then came the start in Detroit in which he got rocked and the diagnosis soon after that he needed Tommy John surgery.
The Mount Pleasant, Texas, native spent all of 2019 rehabbing, which means he will be about 18 months post surgery this coming spring. Chicago will probably bring him along slowly at first, but I would expect the righty to spend most of his summer on the city's south side.
The stuff is undeniable. It is an easy-80 heater paired with a hard slider that is of plus grade. He has a curveball and changeup, too. The off-speed would be a nice development, but if you were going to get by on just two pitches, the fastball and slider are that good. Of course, a well-located fastball would be even better and Kopech has some control issues even before the scar on his arm. Getting back on the mound is the most important part here. We will take it from there once he toes the rubber again.