The best right-handed pitching prospect for the 2020 season barely pitched at all in 2018. He attempted to make up for lost time in the Arizona Fall League before coming back in 2019 to pitch across several levels, with the highest being Triple-A. The best right-handed pitching prospect for the 2020 season is not Forrest Whitley.
For me, that pitcher is Nate Pearson.
He put on a show in the Future's Game, topping triple-digits with ease, and has been building endurance and effectiveness all summer. I anticipate having Oakland Athletics southpaw Jesus Luzardo higher heading into next season, but from what I am seeing from Pearson he will be a name that gets talked about a lot this offseason.
The Toronto Blue Jays nabbed Pearson with the 28th pick in the 2017 draft. Coming from a junior college (Central Florida Community College), he was able to reach Low-A ball in the same summer he was selected and was slated to start the 2018 season with the Advanced-A Blue Jays club in Dunedin, Florida -- about an hour south of where he played his high school ball. In his first start, he pitched 1 2/3 innings before a line drive back up the box ended his regular season. He came back to pitch 20 innings for Surprise in the AFL, but was not particularly sharp or effective.
The Jays returned Pearson to Dunedin to start this season, where he made short work of his native Florida State League. In an effort to monitor his usage, Toronto had him alternate between five-inning starts followed by two-inning "opens." The seven innings of work would typically give him 100 pitches per week. After six appearances, Pearson racked up 35 strikeouts in 21 innings. He allowed just two runs on 10 hits and three walks. Of his 315 pitches, 69 (22%) resulted in a swing and miss.
Pearson was bumped to Double-A New Hampshire as the calendar turned to May. The Jays continued to seesaw his usage between long and short starts. From his first start with the Fisher Cats on May 7 until his 11th start on July 19, the right-hander never recorded more than 15 outs. He topped 80 pitches just once. He collected a 3.41 ERA over the 34 1/3 innings with 35 strikeouts. He walked 10 and allowed two home runs. Opponents managed just a .207 average against him.
On July 24 the training wheels came off and Pearson hit the pedal to the metal. Over his next six starts with New Hampshire, he allowed just five runs in 28 1/3 innings. He struck out 32 batters. His control got a little loose with 11 free passes but the opposition tallied just 16 total hits for a .160 average.
Having successfully navigated Double-A, the level of most importance to me in a lot of players' development, Pearson was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo this week. His first start for the Bisons was arguably one of the best outings of his professional career.
Pearson threw a career-high seven scoreless innings against the Rochester Red Wings -- the Triple-A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins. He surrendered just three singles and walked none. Although he struck out just three batters -- tying his fewest in a start lasting at least five innings -- and registered just three whiffs, he induced seven ground ball outs and completed the 21 outs in fewer than 90 pitches. He threw a strike on 63 percent of his 88 throws.
Despite the suppressed strikeout numbers, Pearson displayed electric stuff. He touched 99 mph with his fastball and lived comfortably in the upper-90s for the evening. He held his velocity throughout as he continued to flash 99 into the seventh inning. He flashed a hard, plus slider in the mid-80s. His final pitch of the night was a sweeping 87-mph slider that froze former major leaguer Brandon Barnes on a 2-2 count. Pearson also tossed a mid-70s curveball and spun a few impressive off-speed pitches with his advancing changeup.
Size. Stuff. Control. Pearson has checked all the boxes you want from a frontline starter. At 6-foot-6 and around 250 pounds, he has the frame to carry 200-plus innings. He has the four-pitch medley lead by a double-plus fastball, a wipe-out slider along with at least average pitches in his curve and changeup. He has shown very good control for a pitcher of his size and with his speed. The command is still not quite there, but with his arsenal he will not have to nibble on the corners.
Considering all of the above, the only thing holding Pearson back is his innings total. He will cross the century mark this month and could be in line for somewhere between 140 and 150 innings next year. I would guess the first 30 or so will be spent in Buffalo as service time clocks come into play. That leaves around 100 or so innings for Toronto. The Jays have been building a young nucleus of position players this season, but not so much on the pitching side. With Marcus Stroman now in New York, Pearson represents a future anchor for a rotation that stands to add impressive arms in years to come.
I would absolutely snag Pearson in as many dynasty leagues as I could now while saving a spot on midseason watch lists in re-draft formats.