We all need to appreciate Minnesota Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz just a little bit more. Perhaps a lot more. Cruz homered twice against the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night. He homered thrice in a weekend game against the Kansas City Royals, a week after he homered thrice against the Chicago White Sox. Cruz is homering a lot. In fact, he has homered 16 times since the All-Star break, which was less than one month ago. Nobody else has hit more than 10 home runs.
Cruz is an annual slider in average live drafts for two reasons. One, he is not
We are never going to know what would have happened this 2019 season had baseball players been using the baseballs of last season, and not these happy fun options that will result in more than 1,000 more home runs than just last season.
Would Tommy La Stella have shattered his career best in homers? Would Ketel Marte, Danny Santana and Mitch Garver be achieving this? Well, I do know that Cruz, who is slugging .662 and drawing walks at a career-high rate, would still be an underrated fantasy option. He always is! He went in the ninth round of ESPN ADP this season -- and will next year, at best -- and ranks as the No. 45 hitter on the full-season Player Rater and fourth over the past 30 days.
Home runs are everywhere, and yes, Cruz cannot fill an outfield spot, he has stolen nary a base and he did miss a few weeks in May with a wrist injury. Older players are more susceptible to missing time. It happens. Still, Cruz is among the 30 most added hitters in ESPN leagues -- up 2.7% over the past week -- and remains close to universally rostered but is not quite there. What is it going to take? A home run literally every day? Cruz has 16 of them in 23 games since the break. I think that is good enough, don't you?
Tuesday takeaways
• Royals outfielder Jorge Soler hit his 30th and 31st home runs Tuesday, and the club record of 38 held by third baseman Mike Moustakas in 2017 is in obvious jeopardy. The last Royals right-handed hitter to reach 30 home runs was Jermaine Dye in 2000! I think this is an off-the-radar issue with the happy fun baseballs. We just do not know what is real, and it changes records and historical marks. Credit Soler, still available in nearly a third of ESPN standard leagues by the way, for his breakout season, and all that really matters is that he is doing it and fantasy managers still seem disinterested in it, but isn't it weird that this guy is going to hit 40 blasts?
• Chicago Cubs lefty Jon Lester permitted eight runs in the second inning to the Oakland Athletics -- at home -- and then his mean manager left him in for a few more innings to allow more damage. At the end, Lester allowed 11 runs, 10 earned, and his 3.86 ERA ballooned to 4.46. Tough to do in August after 120-something innings. I have defended Lester's value for years, even as it was clear to most of us that he was hardly the same pitcher. The hatred/dislike from most went too far, and Tuesday does not change a thing. Lester's FIP is 4.14. Not great, but not 10-run awful. His K rate remains strong. I predicted a 3.75 ERA this season, and it remains possible and good enough. Next up are the Reds and Pirates.
• It had not dawned on me a week ago when I blogged about 30/30 candidates, but Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. could make a run at 40 home runs and 40 steals. He has 28 and 26, respectively, but 13 of the steals have come over 26 games since the All-Star break, and that category is motivation-based. Acuna leads the 30-day Rater and is second to Christian Yelich for the season. Yes, I would take Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout first in 2020 drafts, but since he has found the time to steal a mere nine bases, one could easily argue for Acuna at No. 1 overall.
• You bet I am interested in Reds outfielder Aristides Aquino after he homered again Tuesday and has seven hits in his first 17 plate appearances. No, it hardly means he vaults to top-40 outfield status already, but if the Reds play him, the power upside is clear.
• The Giants parting ways with second baseman Joe Panik, since he is dead last in slugging percentage among qualifiers, should not be surprising to anyone. There is no loyalty in this sport, nor should there be. This is like Maikel Franco and the Phillies. If you do not perform, especially in this new era of power and walks, well, farewell. Panik would have fit nicely in the 1970s.
• Perhaps I have not been positive enough about Toronto Blue Jays infielder/legacy Cavan Biggio, especially since I keep raving about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and extra-base hit machine Bo Bichette. However, Biggio, has 10 home runs and nine steals in as many chances, over 59 games. He draws walks and has second base and perhaps looming outfield eligibility. We loved Ian Desmond for his 20/20 seasons and Rougned Odor when he hit his weight, right? Biggio might never win a batting title but I might be underrating him some.
• New Houston Astros right-hander Zack Greinke sailed along into the sixth inning of his debut and then the Colorado Rockies got to him, though an Alex Bregman error played a role. The three sixth-inning runs were initially ruled unearned. Later in the evening, a nice outing changed to a five-run outing. He still won the game, but think about how perceptions can change after one person -- and it is not his fault, really -- in a press box simply changes his mind. I've been there. I see how decisions get made. Not that it matters, but myriad fantasy leagues could be won or lost from one person initially thinking Bregman made an error, and then changing his mind. Perhaps Greinke loses a bonus or something due to his ERA changing. I find it fascinating but also think, well, perhaps the "error" as we know it should go away. Lots of things have changed in baseball, but runs are just runs. Enough with one person having the power to award wins or errors.
Health report
• Dodgers outfielder Alex Verdugo has an oblique strain and he might be done for the month. Verdugo, 23, showed modest power, but I think a future star lurks. The Dodgers can give more chances to Matt Beaty and Kristopher Negron and still sail past 100 wins. Beaty and Negron are hitting, for those of you in NL-only formats.
Closing time
• There needs to be a statistic for blown save opportunities. No, not blown saves per se. We see those. Blown chances. Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin turned a three-run deficit into four runs in the bottom of the eighth and thus, because of the ridiculous save rule (and it is, please alter it), Arizona's resurgent Archie Bradley simply pitched the ninth inning and failed to earn a save. I hate this. Hate it. Same thing happened with Raisel Iglesias in Angels-Reds, as a run in the bottom of the eighth altered a statistic. They still saved those wins! One sportswriter decided this is the save rule -- three runs in the ninth -- and it lives forever? Managers make decisions based on this! Most would have used someone other than Bradley to close the game simply because a struggling Phillies hurler allowed another homer, a meaningless one in retrospect.
• My main concern with Washington Nationals lefty Sean Doolittle, who saved his 25th game to tie a career high, is usage. He has already noted/complained that he is trending toward a career high in innings, which is dangerous with his extensive injury history. The numbers are there, the opportunities will continue, but he worries me, and the Nationals do have other right-handed options with experience now.
W2W4
• Myriad eyes will be on Dodgers right-hander Dustin May, and not only because of that exquisite hair. Gotta love that. May's debut was better than the numbers. Many invested anyway, me included. I need numbers! May faces the Cardinals -- a middling offense -- Wednesday, and my concern is regardless of how he performs, a trip back to Triple-A awaits. Perhaps he piles on the whiffs and stays for next week at Miami and then home matchups with the tougher Blue Jays and Yankees. At least they are at home.
• Perhaps you would not know who Tampa Bay Rays lefty Brendan McKay was if he wasn't a noted hitter as well. Well, forget it. He is not a hitter at this level. He is a potential top-50 starter though, and facing Toronto on Wednesday. He can navigate a tough lineup with his excellent command, but still, May boasts more immediate and long-term upside.
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