OK, I might not have amazing Milwaukee Brewers lefty Josh Hader rostered in a fantasy league anywhere, but what he is doing lately is even scaring me, and not in a positive way.
Here are a few of the numbers:
-- Two relief pitchers have permitted more than Hader's
-- Two Athletics homered off Hader last week in Oakland's spacious park, one being lefty first baseman Matt Olson, who is good but ... Hader has now permitted four home runs to lefties this season. He entered 2019 having allowed one home run to a lefty in his career. Incredibly, Hader has given up only seven hits to lefties this season (.140 batting average against), but six for extra bases.
-- Hader has allowed four home runs on his four-seam fastball just since the All-Star break, as opponents are slugging .765 off the pitch. Hader still suppresses contact, but when someone makes contact, watch out. These baseballs travel far.
-- Eleven of the 28 hits Hader has permitted this season have been home runs, and 17 of the hits were for extra bases. There are few singles. A home run-to-hit ratio of 39 percent would shatter the big league mark (minimum 50 innings). Cincinnati Reds lefty Amir Garrett somehow allowed 23 homers among 74 hits as a 2017 rookie. Thanks to colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft for his research aid.
-- Closers who allow myriad home runs rarely keep the roles. In fact, for pitchers who spent 80 percent of their games in relief, then-Royals right-hander Ambiorix Burgos is the only one I can find with 15 home runs allowed and 15 saves in a season since 2000. Nobody has ever saved 30 games in a season with 15 home runs allowed. Brewers right-hander Francisco Rodriguez came close in 2014, when his career was nearly over. Doug Jones came close, but closers throw harder now. There has literally never been anyone like Josh Hader!
Do fantasy managers care? Should they care? Hader is the No. 2 relief pitcher on the ESPN Player Rater, just a shade behind San Diego Padres right-hander Kirby Yates, whose main edge comes in saves. Pitchers cannot control those opportunities. Hader leads all relief pitchers with 98 strikeouts and a 16.4 K rate over nine innings. He is hardly pitching badly, but these home runs ... perhaps this is a sign of the era. Houston Astros right-hander Justin Verlander leads the majors in home runs allowed, and might win the AL Cy Young Award.
Look, I will avoid Hader in the 2020 drafts because I prefer to select hitters or ace starters in the first 10 rounds and not closers, regardless of how great they are, but closers are terrible investments. Aroldis Chapman loses a bit off his fastball each season. So does Kenley Jansen. Edwin Diaz has been awful. Blake Treinen has been more awful. Those are the top four relievers in ESPN average live drafts from this season. Want more? Check out Craig Kimbrel and his ERA on the injured list. David Robertson saved fewer games than Orioles outfielder Stevie Wilkerson. Jose LeClerc busted. Wade Davis busted. You go take Yates in Round 6 next season. I wish you good luck!
Some would argue Hader is so dominant that the home runs do not matter, but my rebuttal would be that at some point -- and this could be soon since the numbers are becoming worrisome -- they will catch up to him. It is not that hitters have really figured him out, since he is striking out 48.5% of the batters he faces. That is ridiculous. Never happened before. I worry about run prevention moving forward, because it does not matter if you strike out the side while allowing a two-run homer to blow a game, as we saw last week. Eventually, the home runs will outweigh the good.
Here are other random thoughts on relievers:
-- Kimbrel likely returns to the Chicago Cubs by mid-August and my ranting concerns about his effectiveness have certainly looked prudent so far. Still, there will be no competition here. We expect smart managers to be open to possibilities for lineups and roles like the closer, but it simply does not happen. I wonder if the sabermetric folks in organizations bang their heads against walls as managers ignore smart, helpful advice. Look how long Wade Davis kept his closing role. Matt Carpenter still leads off for the Cardinals, based solely on reputation too. Kimbrel might be better than all but a handful of closers even in his current state, but it would take a miracle for his or any manager to remove him, while healthy, from the role. Why?
-- Look what Seth Lugo is doing for the New York Mets. Is it better than Diaz? Nobody could possibly make an argument for Diaz, but because he was so awesome last year and has that "title" of closer, he remains in the role until there would be no conceivable case to allow it. Lugo since July began: 15 2/3 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, 19 strikeouts, nary a run. Total dominance. The Mets are wild-card contenders and yet ... oh, why bother.
-- I think Rangers right-hander Jose Leclerc remains a huge risk. He will get the save chances because others are hurt or traded, but even on Sunday he could not throw strikes. He has one whiff in his past four appearances. Be prepared for erratic performance here. I do not know if there is a lesson to be learned, since he was so great last season, but I might just punt saves in my leagues next season and add through free agency when needed. Few have rostered Ian Kennedy, the MLB save leader since July began, all year. Same with Hector Neris, Hansel Robles, and myriad others.
-- Arizona's Archie Bradley, however, after three months of yuck, looks great again. Relief pitchers are volatile! This is why we should not count on them year after year, or draft them ahead of aces or hitters that contribute in four or more categories. Now I do trust Bradley.
-- Watch the Toronto Blue Jays shut down Ken Giles at some point soon so they at least have him avoid a major elbow injury and have the opportunity to still trade him this winter. Derek Law for 10 saves? Why not? More proof that literally anyone can save games.
-- Luke Jackson is back closing for the Atlanta Braves by next week. Sorry, those who count on Shane Greene, but you were warned. You have been warned for months.
Monday takeaways
• Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jonathan Villar is not going to steal 40 bases this season, but nobody in fantasy can complain about the No. 17 hitter on the full-season Player Rater. Villar hit for the cycle in Monday's loss. He is one of six players with 15 or more home runs and 15 or more steals. What a draft-day bargain!
• The reason why I took a chance on Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds back in April in an NL-only league is because I no longer look at situations that appear to have too much depth and presume it means a surprise candidate cannot emerge. Reynolds can hit. He homered again Monday. He has scored multiple runs in five of his past seven games. He might win the batting title, should he qualify in plate appearances. Reynolds forced his way into playing time and it worked.
• How can you not add Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette regardless of what type of league it is (unless it is NL-only)? Bichette looks like a better Trea Turner, with fewer steals.
• If the Juan Soto investor in your dynasty league does not think this is a future top-10 fantasy option, with batting titles and 40 home runs and everything, try to trade for him. Give up too much. Just make it happen. Soto is amazing.
• The next time you ignore a young hitter who struggled as a rookie, look at Phillies surprise Scott Kingery in Year 2. He ain't struggling now.
• Cleveland rookie right-hander Aaron Civale did not beat struggling Rangers lefty Mike Minor, but each pitched great. Civale reminds me of Shane Bieber. He throws the baseball where he wants, in a good spot, gets enough swings and misses, and suppresses runs. As for Minor and his 6.59 July ERA, hmm, I guess he is not waiver-wire fodder after all? (I wasn't cutting him.)
Health report
• Farewell to Robinson Cano, who for the second consecutive half-season managed to hit 10 home runs, but this time I doubt fantasy managers will covet him in future drafts. Jeff McNeil should handle second base and J.D. Davis looks like this week's Adam Duvall, so get him.
W2W4
• Zack Greinke debuts for the Astros at home against the Colorado Rockies. Greinke knows that lineup well, and he knows it does not hit in road games. The main things I want to see from the Astros this month is whether Aaron Sanchez is legit and whether prospect Kyle Tucker gets the call so he is playoff-eligible. Stash both now.
• The Mariners are terrible, and Dinelson Lamet of the Padres seems like a wise streamer, but none of his outings has gone more than five innings. Will today be the first? Lamet deserves a break returning from Tommy John surgery, and he sure misses bats, but he has yet to win for a reason. Pitchers against bad teams are not always good streamers. Do you trust Andrew Cashner at home against the Royals? Um, I do not.
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