Cleveland Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer made the wrong kind of news on Sunday, and his name should be front and center the next few days as the trade deadline approaches. But from a fantasy aspect, there remains little to complain about.
Sure, Bauer's awful outing against the Kansas City Royals frustrated him (and hardly just him), and perhaps he is wearing a new jersey for his next performance, but this is, after all,
Bauer achieved a 2.21 ERA and 1.089 WHIP last season, while leading the league in FIP at 2.44 and striking out 221 hitters, and it was glorious. He somehow managed to permit a mere nine home runs in his 175 1/3 innings, which was awesome but also hardly in line with his career path. Add in a new happy fun baseball for this season and Bauer's home run rate is way up at the cost of his ground ball rate, but that is predictable as well. We simply have to view Bauer's 2018 season as an aberration, but remind ourselves this version still aids us.
What bothers me when I watch Bauer pitch -- separate the off-field stuff and his Tweets and whatever -- is his lack of control this season. Always a bit of a walker, Bauer leads the majors in free passes and nobody has hit more batters. Pitchers can remain effective with wildness -- Cincinnati Reds right-hander Luis Castillo is second in walks and fifth in ERA -- but Bauer, whose increase in cutter use seems problematic, crosses that line, and because he is able to go so deep into games, that tends to add runs to his ledger. Even on Sunday, it seemed like manager Terry Francona left him in a bit too long as an awful fifth inning unraveled, much of it simply unlucky.
While we expect trade movement involving relief pitchers the next few days and perhaps a contender or two overpays for a starting pitcher -- or underpays, in the case of the New York Mets on Sunday -- Bauer's situation is fascinating. The Indians have their own reasons, both financial and otherwise, to consider trading him, but in the fantasy world, I think it is a wise time to buy or hold. OK, so Sunday went poorly for several reasons. Most see a disappointing season unraveling, but there remains plenty of statistical value here, and with a few tweaks -- more control, really, which we can view several ways -- an ace lurks. We saw the ace in 2018. We can again.
Weekend takeaways
• Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft shared his views on several weekend trades in a file that will continue to be updated this week. Few say nice things about the Mets, but Marcus Stroman is solid and, to me, a top-40 starter in fantasy. I do worry a bit about the new defense behind him, but he can miss bats. I doubt the Mets are through trading -- and, by the way, fantasy managers should always deal pitching prospects who are not top options like MacKenzie Gore to win now too. Most prospects fail. Meanwhile, the Twins should use Sergio Romo in the old Blake Parker role, as an occasional ninth-inning option, but lefty Taylor Rogers remains the best hope for saves there. Romo has 17 saves; it is feasible that hard-throwing but erratic right-hander Nick Anderson reaches double-digits the final two months for Miami.
• I would keep Washington Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer on my bench for this week. A week ago, when his status in coming off the injured list for an inflamed shoulder seemed positive and certain, I activated him. Now, as he deals with a back strain, I cannot comprehend why the Nationals would risk letting him pitch this week or next. The NL wild-card race will still be a race in a month and the Nationals will remain in it. As for the oft-maligned right-hander Stephen Strasburg, appreciate greatness. Strasburg won all five of his July starts with a 1.14 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. I see nobody discussing this, but if Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu falters, Strasburg could win his first Cy Young award.
• I am surprised Dodgers rookie catcher Will Smith is not more popular in ESPN leagues. It was pretty obvious that Smith was the team's top catching option months ago, as he slugged and showed plate discipline in Triple-A, and he hit in brief work in the majors. He is fine defensively. The Dodgers called him back up last week, and he homered and knocked in six in his first game, and his plate discipline is solid. Nothing against resurgent Tampa Bay Rays backstop Travis d'Arnaud or Boston Red Sox surprise Christian Vazquez, but Smith is better. I view all three as top-10 options for the rest of the season.
• Twitter followers asked me if I liked promoted Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette, and of course, what is not to like? I like him more than teammate Cavan Biggio, for sure. Bichette has a natural hit tool and steals bases. He failed to dominate at Triple-A, but we did not need to see much, either. If ranking rookie infielders with excellent hit tools, I still go Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Keston Hiura first, but Bichette over San Diego Padres option Luis Urias. Each should hit nicely, though. Other than Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker, I just do not see many relevant minor leaguers who will assuredly help fantasy managers left.
Health report
• The excellent Atlanta Braves lost underrated outfielder Nick Markakis with a broken wrist, but that creates opportunity for Adam Duvall. Oh, you remember him, right? Duvall slugged 64 home runs for the 2016-17 Cincinnati Reds, though with a terrible on-base percentage. Still, power works. Duvall lost it all last season but this year in Triple-A Gwinnett it all came back, and then some. Meanwhile, Gold Glover Ender Inciarte homered twice this weekend, and he runs and defends. I think Inciarte and Duvall play regularly along with Ronald Acuna Jr., and rookie free swinger Austin Riley does not. Would I cut Riley for Duvall? You might think I am crazy, but only one of them is likely to hit double-digit homers the next four weeks, and it is not the rookie playing out of position, because he will not be playing. As for Markakis, still rostered in 84 percent of ESPN standard leagues, move on.
Closing time
• Well, Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Greg Holland made it through four months before the wildness cost him the closer role. Most will say this was expected, and I concur. Still, we got 17 saves from the fellow, and there is the potential for more because it sure seems like manager Torey Lovullo wants to avoid using Archie Bradley for saves. Bradley has miserable numbers this season, but that has changed recently; he has permitted nary a run in his past nine outings, covering 11 innings. I bet Yoan Lopez saves a few games but Holland gets another chance soon. Holland versus Texas Rangers right-hander Jose Leclerc for saves the rest of the way? I say it is Holland.
W2W4
• Short slate of Monday games but Dallas Keuchel faces Patrick Corbin on ESPN, and that is worth watching for sure. I want to say Angels right-hander Jaime Barria is worth streaming because he faces the awful Detroit Tigers, but Barria is hardly a sure bet to go five innings. Royals right-hander Brad Keller has won four of his past five decisions and lowered his ERA to a respectable 3.95, but I have a tough time trusting him, even against the Blue Jays, who did score nicely this weekend. Frankly, one of the things I most want to see is where Bichette fits into Toronto's lineup.
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